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GDP Goldplat Plc

6.45
0.10 (1.57%)
22 Nov 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Goldplat Plc LSE:GDP London Ordinary Share GB00B0HCWM45 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.10 1.57% 6.45 293,212 16:10:30
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
6.20 6.70 6.45 6.35 6.35
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Gold Ores 41.88M 2.8M 0.0167 3.86 10.65M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:10:06 O 29,000 6.50 GBX

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Posted at 23/11/2024 08:20 by Goldplat Daily Update
Goldplat Plc is listed in the Gold Ores sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker GDP. The last closing price for Goldplat was 6.35p.
Goldplat currently has 167,782,667 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Goldplat is £10,821,982.
Goldplat has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 3.86.
This morning GDP shares opened at 6.35p
Posted at 13/11/2024 19:09 by ih_692232
Low-I hold shy of 3per cent
I am stubborn - I will wait until I get my reward -I won’t be selling under cost
-I want to make a profit
Martin is not buying this company - if he had wanted to he could have bought shares very cheaply to do so
What he wants is I am sure what long term shareholders want - a return on their investment
He can not sell into this market the share price would tank
He has two options -the company is sold (a buyer doing so on strength of business returning profits annually and the TSF delivering a bonanza in due course )-or Martin gets his reward by TSF development and substantial dividends
I am in same boat as he but on a smaller scale - I want board to focus on being rewarding shareholders by dividends
The board have a propensity to waste cash
- coal ? Silence now but cost 550k generators- a wasted investment of 750k -over the years there is a long list
Audit shambles -Ghana licences - lack of driving focus on TSF -no buy backs -no dividends -cash from sake of Kili-promised as dividend
The board have consistently failed shareholders
Boy have they and we been lucky as to gold price but has this share share price increased in line with increased gold price ???

So yes this board needs to be accountable to its shareholders and yes it is very anger inducing that they have failed so miserably thus far to deliver

They have probably wasted enough cash in last 5 years to cover 3years of 1p per share dividend
Alm
Posted at 12/11/2024 18:33 by lowtrawler
ACT, there has been virtually no volume yesterday or today. The only substantial transaction was 400k shares after hours today and it was a buy - roughly equal to the rest of the day's volume.

The reality is, unless the MM's are working trades behind the scenes, the share price movement was not driven by supply and demand. It was purely the MM's setting a price they thought would balance their books.

I have said it before but will repeat. The share price this year can move around between 6p and 8p without generating trading interest. We are effectively in a wide trading range and the MMs can move the price at will within the range. There was nothing substantial in today's announcement to move us out of the range.
Posted at 23/9/2024 16:16 by lowtrawler
The problem we have is accurately valuing the TSF. Even Werner has explained GDP have a wide variation in possible outcomes. Some variables are easier to estimate than others but the compound error from estimating so many variables makes any TSF valuation suspect.

It starts with any update to the JORC. We know what it was in January 2016 (82k ounces) and we know that 800k tonnes of material have been added to it since then @ c.1,45 g/t which equates to around 41k ounces. However, the original JORC is likely to be more with the material now having settled. Overall, it seems likely an updated JORC would reflect over 125k ounces.

The next variable is how much of the contained resource is recoverable. There is a large variation of possibilities. Anything from 35% to 65% appears possible. This variable alone means we are looking at a gold recovery of anywhere between 44k - 81k ounces.

In relation to the DRD contract. There are clearly project initiation costs and project clean-up costs. These could be substantial. In addition, we don't know whether DRD will charge a typical processing price or a price in which they profit share. I doubt we will get any clear view until the terms of the contract are published or included in a forecast by GDP.

While the pipeline appears fairly straightforward. GDP say they need to conclude arrangements with "third parties over certain areas for the installation of a pipeline to the DRD Gold processing facility". We don't know what costs are associated with this.

We do know that 9.37% of the profits made from processing the TSF will belong to minority interests and we also know there will be South African Tax to pay, currently at 28%.

We can all see the huge sales value in relation to GDP's market cap but until the variables are better established, we cannot say with any certainty what profit will flow to GDP. The fact GDP expect processing to take 6 years from commencement also adds risk / uncertainty.

When I work through the range of possibilities, I end up with attributable profitability of between 15p and 43p per share. Even then, the actual results could easily fall outside that range. Once you discount the values to reflect 6 years processing, the share price impact could be anywhere from 10p - 30p.

IMV, once GDP sort out a reasonable shareholder return for the ongoing business, it will be priced around 4.5x earnings of 2.2p i.e. around 10p. Thus, if the TSF achieves the lower end of my expected range, the share price should reach 20p. In reality, until the TSF is actually delivering returns, nothing like the full value will be reflected in the price. This is why I discussed 15p earlier.

Ultimately, I expect 10p for the TSF to be an underestimate and for the full return to be closer to 30p. For shareholders to extract the full benefit, I believe you will need to hold throughout the processing timeline.
Posted at 29/8/2024 10:44 by ih_692232
Low
The company is not telling us anything about funding of materials -they should be if there is a change from present arrangements - so why should we assume there is such a change ?
Isn’t that what a board of directors should do - keep the shareholders informed on any material change to the business ?
The other staggering thing about goldplats performance and resultant low share price which is entirely the boards fault is that this is against a backdrop of a staggering increase in the value of gold
-they just can’t run a successful business at these gold price levels with an share price that should be 3 or 4 times the current share price with buyers queuing up to buy the stock
It’s all about a useless non focused board interested only in their own benefit with no vision forward long planning and a realisation that communication is key
They need not only produce and sell gold but really sell the business through communication to its present and future shareholders

The questions to be raised to this board at the presentation ??? Don’t expect any meaningful answers
Alm
Posted at 28/8/2024 09:36 by lowtrawler
When I first read the RNS yesterday, I had to look twice. I thought they had mixed up the Q4 numbers with the annual totals. In Q4, excluding foreign exchange, Kenya tax and impairments, they made more profit after tax than Q1-Q3 combined. This is an incredible performance. The cash on hand is sufficient to meet all their planned investment and loan repayments. The cash they generate over the next year can be used to build inventory and transition towards a model where they pay miners up front.

It is unclear whether Q4 was an anomaly or whether the higher operating profit will continue. Even assuming GDP revert to previous profit levels, after 12 months GDP should have a strong balance sheet and be able to reward shareholders. With cash generation roughly matching profits, I reckon they can safely return 50% to shareholders and reinvest the remaining 50%. That would mean a dividend of 1p per annum at previous profit levels or 1.25p+ at the higher profit levels.

We need GDP to provide an indication of where they expect profits to sit over the coming years and set a policy for rewarding shareholders. In a world where investors have seen GDP squander profits and fail to reward shareholders, GDP need to change the narrative. They need to convince investors they will be rewarded and set an expectation of what those rewards might look like.

In relation to the TSF. GDP have consistently failed to provide any detailed plan for delivery. This has allowed delivery to drift with shareholders left in the dark as to why and no understanding what GDP are doing to bring it back on track. It is time for GDP to publish a plan and provide detailed quarterly updates on progress towards delivery. It is the only way management can be held accountable.
Posted at 12/7/2024 07:37 by lowtrawler
MF, only you can answer that question.

IMV, the core business is worth more than the current share price which creates limited downside. The only threat would come if Ghana were to decline but that currently appears unlikely.

If GDP properly communicate the TSF, most of the benefits should appear in the share price at the point monetization begins. Even if they move at a glacial pace, that is likely to be within the next 3 years. However, if they fail to communicate and the benefits are only visible over the course of monetization, the full impact might not be felt until monetization is complete and that may be 10 years away. I can't believe Martin would allow that to happen and so I currently expect benefits of the TSF to be substantially in the share price within 3 years.
Posted at 03/7/2024 16:36 by lowtrawler
Taking a look at what should happen to the GDP share price once the TSF is fully documented and underway. Using kimboy's assessment from post 11172, @ $2,150 gold, there should be a gross profit of around $70m split over 6 years (based on last quarters investor call), about $50m after tax. Assuming the $50m is split evenly over the 6 years and using a discount rate of 18% with year 1 commencing immediately - I think it will not be fully reflected in the share price until underway....

The DCF value is c.$29m or c.£23m, about 14p per share. If the plan is to fully distribute these profits, it should all be reflected in the share price (the high 18% discount rate takes account of risks). The core business should have a value of 6p - 14p and so the share price should comfortably exceed 20p. I reckon we are probably at least 18 months from monetisation of the TSF but as we gain visibility, the share price should start to head towards the 20p.

The main issues I see are that the TSF returns are still high level and rough - they could be out by a country mile. Also, GDP may choose not to fully distribute the windfall profits.
Posted at 27/6/2024 15:21 by lowtrawler
ertugral, the market is trying to look forward and value on future cashflows with countless other adjustments including risks, opportunities, threats, management quality, dividend policy etc. Ultimately, the long-term share price comes down to the attributable cashflows either being returned to shareholders or used for business expansion. At any moment in time, valuing using my simplistic method will not deliver any insight to the current price but over a longer period, the share price will tend to reflect the financials. Sometimes that longer period is decades but more normally 5 - 10 years.

In the case of GDP, they have been making a lot of attributable profit but it has all been retained in the business. In theory, that should mean growth leading to additional attributable profit but Ghana is the only area of successful investment we have seen. The lack of shareholder returns means GDP sits on a low rating. The poor quality management and problems in SA are other black marks. Hence, we have a share price at the lower end of what the financials would support.
Posted at 10/5/2024 10:39 by lowtrawler
shill10 - at that time, GDP had run some share buybacks which indicated they were starting to look at returning value to shareholders. Since then, they have had the trading suspension / accounts debacle; SA power outages; Ghana licensing problem; working capital increases; extra capex needs.....

It appears to me GDP will be able to generate around 2p of after tax annual attributable profit on a consistent basis. If they indicate at least 1p of this will be returned to shareholders, that alone would return us to 12.5p. The TSF is clearly going to be worth at least 10p per share and once a route to monetising the TSF is published, a large chunk should be reflected in the share price

A bid from DRD would obviously accelerate the share price appreciation but GDP have it within their own power to move the share price into the teens.
Posted at 10/4/2024 12:16 by dangersimpson2
Most investors judge company management by the recent share price performance rather than any objective measure of performance. When a share price is going up, the CEO is lauded by shareholders as a genius. When the share price is falling, the CEO is thought of as an idiot making incompetent decisions. The reality is that luck, mean reversion and the everyday decisions of employees has as much impact on corporate performance as the CEO.

For example, there is no evidence of persistence of performance when a CEO changes company. A leader who has had a phenomenal record of performance in one company is no more likely to lead another company to market-beating returns than a flip of a coin. Likewise, a CEO who leads a company to top quartile share price performance for three years is no more likely to have a company that is a top quartile performer for the following three years than pure chance. See

My prediction is that everyone who is selling today because they don't like the management will be buying back at 20p for the dividends and TSF profits in a year or so. Those who say management is unenthusiastic will then call them straight-talking. Those who say the business is boring and slow to act, will then say it is conservatively and prudently run. The only thing that will have changed is the share price.
Goldplat share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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