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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldplat Plc | GDP | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 6.625 | 08:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.625 | 6.625 | 6.625 | 6.625 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| MINING |
| Top Posts |
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Posted at 10/6/2025 09:26 by pog1234 Lowtrawler, I hope GDP will start paying out a dividend as communicated. However, they have talked about a dividend in the past too without following through. So I am not convinced until I see the money in my account.As for trust. GDP has consistently had hickups. I do not blame management for all of them, but it does not instill confidence when you talk about progress and a bright future just to have another hickup the next quarter. Some real progress and growth with a committment to paying out a decent dividend, no token dividend, would increase both confidence and the share price. It does not take much for this to happen! On top of the above, deliver the TSF and the share price will fly... |
Posted at 29/5/2025 15:51 by gb904150 MO is surely a blessing and a curse.A blessing in that he ensures the equity is looked after. No unnecessary dilution, no out of control BOD pay, no BOD running the company entirely for their own ends. A curse in that, his investment deters ii's, prevents balance to the shareholder register and that all power and direction is concentrated in one man. What MO wants is what we'll get. From the last few years developments and updates it seems MO would rather the Mcap stay low. Perhaps with a view to acquiring the rest of the business at a knock-down price at some point in the future. There seems no appetite to boost profitability or to share the spoils via dividends. That said - when the time is right MO will surely have to make some kind of move. He may decide that he wants GDP to fully valued and sell down his stake, or insist on regular dividends from it, in which case the share price could be 3x what it is today and far more balanced/resilient and liquid an investment. Perhaps for now he's just happy with operational progress and that in the next few years the DRD / TSF situation will unlock and he will realise the gains. I suspect the most likely is that, when the opportunity is greatest, MO will know about it and will want to acquire all of the business as cheaply as possible. The only counter to that for PI's is that, by sandbagging progress and profitability it does allow us to build a stake at knockdown prices. What MO needs is competition. HNW investors, or II's to see the opportunity and also want a piece of the pie. Unfortunately, MO having such a large stake probably puts them off. Smaller PI's with patience then are all that is left. I mean, how much of GDP would any PI be comfortable owning? Surely no more than any of the BOD own. i.e. 1%. At £11m mcap that is £110k. Probably more than enough for most PI's. Lowtrawler - any expansion on your 'cynical reasoning' ideas? That puts a 1% |
Posted at 22/4/2025 12:17 by lowtrawler GB, good post "It's just a case of waiting".Perhaps. I certainly hope so. Unfortunately, I have no confidence in Werner and MO has never shown his cards so we can understand what he is aiming to achieve. As can be seen from the SP, the market do not trust that GDP will return value to shareholders and deliver on their obvious potential. GDP could easily address this by publishing a plan but they have not. In fact, they appear to have little ability to plan more than a few months in advance. IMV, this has led to an extreme reluctance to let any cash leave the business because they are unsure what lies around the corner. If the company cannot confidently plan, why should shareholder's expect the reward situation to change? From my perspective, I can see the huge potential and am frustrated shareholder's have not been rewarded as the trading has improved. I had listened to Werner promise this would change last year and listened recently when he backtracked. I have gone from overweight GDP to equal weight and am now looking for an opportunity to go underweight. The potential of GDP has not changed but I don't trust Werner to deliver anything of value for shareholders. |
Posted at 14/4/2025 15:36 by gb904150 Thanks as ever for the high quality discussion on this BB.IMV, Martin will be looking to sell GDP, possibly to DRD. The question is whether small shareholders get screwed over in the process. At some point there comes an inflection. Where the future prospects and profitability are too good to share with others and so somebody wants all of it. If DRD want to take us over what's taking so long? There's a decent chance they only want the SA ops and TSF. GDP Mcap is a measly £10m. DRDgold are $1.3bn. 3000 people. Their last interims to 31/12/24 were: $200m revs $83m op profit Perhaps Martin Ooi's initial interest was that he got wind of GDP being valuable to DRD in the long run. And rather than the usual situation where a minnow like GDP is a weakling (no revenues, profits, bargaining power, single location) and open to domination, GDP is in the enviable situation of being profitable in two locations and able to sit it out for as long as it takes. That would explain the conservatism with which the business is run. They avoid at all costs being in a vulnerable position where they find themselves at the mercy of markets, commodity pricing, regulations etc. Sometimes acquirers manage to bully smaller entities like GDP into submission. Perhaps the strategy is merely a 'stay strong and survive' for as long as it takes. On that basis it pays to have your own ambitious plans and to diversify to spread risk. That strength is a threat to the acquirer as you add value to your business and are less vulnerable. If that's the case, a 3rd location in Brazil doing what they already do successfully (tailings processing) could work. However, I think the far more effective plan is get the current ops running as hot and efficiently as possible. Announce a maiden dividend. Companies that build up a significant cash pile and pay out dividends get acquired quickly because the acquirer sees that money being distributed to shareholders and wants it for themselves. I prefer that simple strategy. A maiden divi here would see the Mcap double. It would accelerate any buy-out. |
Posted at 14/4/2025 14:53 by lowtrawler GB904150Good post. IMV, GDP are already making good profits from their current activities. They are unwilling to distribute those profits because they are risk averse; seek to invest from retained earnings, rather than borrowings, and; lack any long-term plan. I believe the move into Ghana has proved the expandability of the business model and Brazil makes sense. I see no logic in coal. As I have said previously, coal will need to be processed at source and so recovery will need to be setup on site at any customers. Those same customers would be better placed to do the processing than GDP. They may use GDP to prove the concept but there is no long-term prospects for GDP. IMV, Martin will be looking to sell GDP, possibly to DRD. The question is whether small shareholders get screwed over in the process. |
Posted at 14/4/2025 14:41 by lowtrawler kimboyThe £1.6m pre-financing interest may not benefit from any increased capitalisation. As I understand it, suppliers are paid once their material is fully processed and the proceeds received. If they were to sell the material up-front to GDP, they would receive an estimated value for the mineral content which would be less than the actual content. At the moment, suppliers benefit from both interest on the material available to GDP and a share of the actual realised price. It is not clear how many suppliers would like to switch from this model. To the extent that GDP have suppliers who would like to be paid up-front, there are likely benefits to GDP moving towards this but we would need more information. Unless GDP can clearly articulate the demand, costs and benefits from moving to a purchase up-front model, the need to withhold distributions in order to reduce this interest charge is unproven. |
Posted at 10/4/2025 12:54 by kimboy2 The so called 'rumour' was in fact a suggestion to the board that the company should put itself up for sale.The problem is that GDP is arguably the cheapest company on the LSE. So what are the board doing about it? Answers on a postcard. Potential Solutions. 1. The TSF This will take a year to get the permissions and another year to build. Then it will take 4-5 years to process. If everything goes right. If they go through DRD then the recovery will be about 25%, profit to GDP may be $1500/oz, discounted over 6+ years. I make that about £25m and discounted by whatever you want. 2. A dividend They could pay a dividend. The problem is that they will in effect be borrowing it and it will add to the debt required to acquire material. IMV a dividend will have the effect of reducing the share price by the amount of the dividend. As there can be no certainty of a dividend into the future it won't be valued as regular dividend payer. 3. Buybacks They could do buybacks. I would prefer this rather than dividends. The advantage is that once the shares are bought they stay bought. The benefit will come when the TSF dividend is distributed or on a sale. It would be interesting if they spent £1m a year on dividends per year. They could have given Werner £60k for his 1m share options and saved the dilution. But didn't. 4. Sale The problem is the company is undercapitalised. The Brazil thing is a no brainer - get on with it. The coal thing is probably a good idea - get on with it. If they had more cash they could probably afford to finance the purchase of more material. If someone like DRD took them over they could afford to chase the opportunities. 15-20p looks attractive to me. |
Posted at 20/1/2025 11:17 by napoleon 14th This turned uo in this a.m.'s emails...You need to subscribe & get it direct if you want the calculations 'cos cut & paste won't do it. "Goldplat GDP - Gold on a plate? Or Fools Gold on a plate? The Oak Bloke, Jan 19 2025. Dear reader, Goldplat (ticker GDP) is a precious metal recovery specialist operating for over 20 years which mines nothing but works with miners to recover metals from their tailings. A “Freddie Dodge” specialist but rather than turning up with his mate Juan (oh), advising on and improving their operation instead Goldplat ships the materials back to its recovery plants in South Africa and Ghana for processing. Its future plan is to add a third plant in Brazil. Its approach is not dissimilar to Jubilee in some ways, although it is interesting that GDP appears to achieve something similar without vast levels of investment, and of course focuses solely on gold. The reason for this is GDP’s annual production of 37,466 ounces is 1.06 tonnes of gold. Jubilee are processing around 2 million tonnes of chrome concentrate per year by comparison. GDP works with a wide variety of “wastes” ranging from wood chips to machine grease and uses a tailored processing approach to each feed, and uses a series of interconnected recovery circuits to recover further precious metal from the wastes. Top Line: A reader strongly recommended I look at GDP, and for sure it is cheap. What struck me though when I looked at GDP was its forecast slow growth according to the broker. A P/E of just 2.8 and discount to NAV of ~25% but its profits would stagnate in FY25 (to June 2025). Hmmm. When gold prices are rising? Why might that be? And how accurate is that? That slow growth especially in rising gold prices takes the shine off things - potentially. Customer (Suppliers of Feed) & Growth GDP have an expanding breadth of customers across Southern and West Africa, plus are expanding into Brazil. This reduces risk of dependence of too few customers and lumpiness of flow. It also diversifies from the challenges of power intermittency which has plagued South Africa and associated rising energy costs. Gold Operations Ounces. Usually you would head straight to production info and see how many ounces were produced. Very strangely GDP only reveal this in the latest annual report (37,466 ounces for the year) whereas we have to assume perhaps 24,000 ounces (taking the midway of “operations recover between 1,500 ounces and 2,500 ounces monthly) the year before (FY23) and perhaps 28,800 ounces in FY22. This must mean a realised price per ounce of $1,940 and an AISC of $1,597 in 2024, $1,745 and an AISC of $1,436. Explains why GP margin is only 17.7% and hasn’t increased in 2024/2025. 2023 annual report 2024 annual report So there not nearly as much margin, since the revenue is shared with the customer (who provided the feed) and costs are high because of the processing involved. There is potential for GDP to expand its PGM recovery (it’s unclear whether there are any since they only announce gold ounces) and it also has a know how for a fine coal recovery process where it says it is not currently the best time to pursue these ideas. Since mine materials have to transported to either Ghana or South Africa, new sources of feed need to be approved for export, and licences to operate expire - some yearly. GDP’s operations tends to tie up working capital since customers want to be paid far faster than smelters are prepared to pay GDP. You can see working capital getting swallowed up as operations have grown. It’s also noticeable that margins are declining since 2021 due to higher energy and people costs. Cashflow: + Strong cash generation: GDP generated strong cashflows in FY24 - its P/OCF (price to operating cash flow) is 2.5x and FCF 6x. Capex: Ongoing investment appears set to continue via further investment in Ghana and then Brazil. There’s always something to spend the money on. It’s fair to say that GDP appears close to being debt free and there is talk about dividends in 2025 but my assumption is there’s more capex (perhaps £2m a year) to upgrade Ghana to produce Dore Gold and to establish an operation in Brazil. Compensation & Management: Director compensation seems reasonable at £420k (inc fees). Management has been delivering on its promises and has a clear and achievable strategy. Sales: The 2024 revenue performance is far higher than 2023. This is in part to fewer blackouts in South Africa (aka load shedding), but also due to improved gold prices and growth in the Ghanian operation. The broker’s view that sales will drop in the year to June 2025 (FY25) to just £48m (from £72.7m) has spooked me somewhat. Why? No explanation is given for this contraction? The gold price is now higher than it was in the year to June 2024. The 1Q25 result appears to show a £14.8m revenue till 30th September by working backwards from the disclosed operating profit. Annualised that would be around £60m turnover. So do they believe the remaining 9 months will deliver just £33.2m? Their guess is in a report dated the 20th December 2024 so a full month after the 1Q25 results so it appears they believe sales will contract by about a 1/3rd in the remaining 9 months (£48m - £14.8m = £33.2m). Another aspect I’m not comfortable with is sales were £72.69m and 37,466 ounces were produced and sold at $2,076 per ounce. But this doesn’t add up. 37,466 ounces over £72.69m is $1,940 an ounce - $136 per ounce less, or if an average $2,076/ounce is accurate then production must have been 35,014 ounces. I suspect the answer is tied up in minority interests and the like (the Ghana operation is 91% owned by GDP), and/or the reconciliation between their “group” and “company” Cash: Analysing their cash flows debt is or will be paid down now or in the coming months, leaving just lease liabilities. There is clearly growing operational cash flow, which is a positive sign and despite the forecast drop in sales I’ve made some estimates on what cash flows could look like, assuming a £4m budget to address capex for Ghana and Brazil’s operations. I suspect that any dividend will not be until later in 2025 but a prospective £1.7m would equate to 1p per share. Assuming a 40% of FCF dividend i.e 0.4p equates to a very decent 5.4% yield. That could grow to a 10%+ yield with rising cash flows in time. Balance Sheet The nature of the business, and one to get your head around is that your customers (mine owners) are the suppliers and want generous payment terms for their materials. The smelters are a supplier but you supply the processed ore for smelting and they offer slow payment terms. So the nature of this business is lots of working capital gets tied up and there’s not an easy solution here where customers are typically very large, smelters are also large and GDP is the piggy in the middle. Having said that the group balance sheet is solid, and feeds in to the company balance sheet where net assets are 9.6p per share (so at a discount to the share price by 2.2p). Other upsides: A final aspect is the MRE from 2016 where today about 2.3 million tonnes of tailings contain 82koz plus an estimated 50% more? of gold plus silver and uranium at 1.5g/t (?). Building a second tailings storage has now been completed and is a stepping stone towards processing the older tailings. Conclusion: A £12m market cap at a discount and delivering a £4.3m profit after tax should be a dream come true. But how much could and one day will translate into returns for its owners? After you strip out minority interests, and try to account for production that doesn’t appear to quite add up to the revenue, a high AISC, a fairly heavily discounted gold price (so a limited net margin and upside to gold prices), ongoing capex requirements, quite a bit of past bad luck, a PEG of 2.66, geographic risk and crucially the prospect of a FY25 33% sales drop according to the broker’s estimate for absolutely no apparent reason…. an uneasy feeling prevails. Perhaps I’m overthinking this one and just need to get comfortable. I’ll be paying close attention to the interims and the truth of the broker forecast. Regards, The Oak Bloke." |
Posted at 18/1/2025 12:12 by dangersimpson2 It seems like we go around in circles on this, so let me reiterate:1. All the signs are that Martin Ooi is an investor and has no desire to run this, nor the funds or willingness to take this private, at any price. 2. When you own close to 30%, there is no way he's selling in the market, which means for him to generate a return he either needs to receive dividends or engineer a takeover. 3. He can block a takeover, so this is only happening at a valuation that he is happy with. Probably needs 20-30p for him to consider selling now, given that he knows the cash generation and the potential value of the TSF, even if it has been slow going here. 4. MO almost certainly wants to receive a large and ongoing dividend stream, but when you have a big chunk of your wealth tied up in an investment, you want it to be run extremely conservatively. There is no way you risk killing the golden goose for a couple of golden eggs in the short term. Management have convinced him that in the short term, capital has been better off retained in order to make sure the business can adapt to a changing industry landscape. 5. Perhaps due to the conservatism, or because they are just not very proactive, management has made a number of missteps. For example, they seem to have bought generators in the midst of an energy crisis, believed a supplier who told them they could be delivered quickly, and that supplier has actually delivered them as the crisis ended. 6. With hindsight, this sort of thing may be poor decision-making, but none of this is because management is intentionally holding back dividends and wants to pay themselves salaries forever at the expense of shareholders. This is one of the things that MO's holding actually guarantees, and now he sits on the board, he presumably sees the cash flow projections. If he thought they could have paid a large sustainable dividend a while back he would have certainly made it happen. 6. Retaining capital to produce more gold bars instead of concentrate in Ghana is likely a very good move that frees up capital in the long term, even if it has a short-term cost. It is things like this that MO & the board see as maximising the NPV of the dividends that we will receive and minimising the risk in the business. 7. Other shareholders can gnash their teeth and try to force them to pay a dividend regardless of whether it is the best long-term use of capital, but at the end of the day, if MO says he'd rather they protected the long-term health of the business and maximise the dividends received over the long-term, they are going to listen and implement what MO wants. I say all this as a long-term holder who thinks a large and sustainable dividend should be possible to pay soon. However, given the underlying P/E is 2-3 at the moment, I'd also like to see a pretty big buyback implemented first. |
Posted at 28/8/2024 10:36 by lowtrawler When I first read the RNS yesterday, I had to look twice. I thought they had mixed up the Q4 numbers with the annual totals. In Q4, excluding foreign exchange, Kenya tax and impairments, they made more profit after tax than Q1-Q3 combined. This is an incredible performance. The cash on hand is sufficient to meet all their planned investment and loan repayments. The cash they generate over the next year can be used to build inventory and transition towards a model where they pay miners up front.It is unclear whether Q4 was an anomaly or whether the higher operating profit will continue. Even assuming GDP revert to previous profit levels, after 12 months GDP should have a strong balance sheet and be able to reward shareholders. With cash generation roughly matching profits, I reckon they can safely return 50% to shareholders and reinvest the remaining 50%. That would mean a dividend of 1p per annum at previous profit levels or 1.25p+ at the higher profit levels. We need GDP to provide an indication of where they expect profits to sit over the coming years and set a policy for rewarding shareholders. In a world where investors have seen GDP squander profits and fail to reward shareholders, GDP need to change the narrative. They need to convince investors they will be rewarded and set an expectation of what those rewards might look like. In relation to the TSF. GDP have consistently failed to provide any detailed plan for delivery. This has allowed delivery to drift with shareholders left in the dark as to why and no understanding what GDP are doing to bring it back on track. It is time for GDP to publish a plan and provide detailed quarterly updates on progress towards delivery. It is the only way management can be held accountable. |
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