Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[shill10] 08/3/2024 08:44

goldfund, you ignore the recovery rate - lets say 50%, but you are right that is still $9 mill or 5p per share !!!!

[ertugrul] 08/3/2024 08:34

I believe bottom has not seen and should share price recover from here...

[goldfund] 07/3/2024 22:05

Gold price from 2000 to $2150. Extra 150$/oz profit. Goldplat TSF ~ 120000 oz gold. 120000x150=$18M Extra. Market cap just £10M. We need share buyback!!!

[ertugrul] 07/3/2024 18:01

Another nice tick up

[ertugrul] 05/3/2024 14:31

Good start let see can we see new highs with some good news, 10p should be first stop

[smackeraim] 05/3/2024 13:36

Yikes. Gold about to make a new high

[dangersimpson2] 05/3/2024 13:10

Apart from the TSF, it isn't a geared play, but it is linear. A 5% rise in gold price should add 5% to profits. The biggest impact is it allows them to profitably process stockpiles of lower-grade material they have bought cheaply and are marginal at lower gold prices. Plus, it opens up more opportunities for sourcing. So, it doesn't have the shoot-the-lights-out impact of the highest-cost producers, but it is positive and should have an impact on company financials and share price.

[kimboy2] 05/3/2024 10:56

Interesting question as to whther GDP is the most geared gold play. It isn't on the operating level as the cost of inputs will rise with the gold price.

However once you take into account the TSF is different. How much does gold have to go up for the increase in value of the TSF to equal the market cap of GDP as a whole?

I don't know because they haven't released the numbers. If the DRD processing costs are very low, as I suspect they will be, then it will be highly geared relative to market cap..

[dangersimpson2] 05/3/2024 10:18

This isn't the most geared gold play out there, but the high gold price makes a lot of the lower-grade material they have significant volumes of much more economic. It is hard to see SA making another loss if gold prices hold at current levels, and Ghana will be going great guns (although probably not at the exceptional level of Q2, which saw the delayed sales.)

[michaelfenton] 05/3/2024 10:18

Forgot to mention a bit of a flurry this morning. Maybe news coming?

[michaelfenton] 05/3/2024 10:15

ed sea7 this is indeed a crazy situation.

[sea7] 05/3/2024 10:10

The valuation of goldplat by the market is currently absurd

the last set of accounts show total current assets (excl non current assets) at £52.4 million, with total liabilities (current and non current) at £46.3 million.

This gives us a net current asset value of £6.1 million and the mcap is only £9.4 million.

meaning - we have the TSF, all the property, plant and equipment, as well as the intangibles, thrown in for £3.3 million.

golplat always used to trade fairly reliably on a p/e of 7 - today we are at a p/e of 3.4

The Q1 Trading update said £1.7 million in cash.

[shill10] 05/3/2024 09:47

Like you say Kimboy, the delay has more than doubled the profit of the TSF, be careful what you wish for :) my hope and expectation is that gold is heading much higher from here, maybe Martin thinks the same, hence the stalling

[kimboy2] 05/3/2024 09:36

The new JORC will be interesting. I would presume they are getting it done now. I would have thought that they would need some sort of estimate for the contract with DRD.

I am not sure how much difference to the share price a new JORC will have on the share price We have loads of gold on the premises now and it doesn't have any effect.

We need some numbers and preferably a timeline.

[sea7] 05/3/2024 09:34

and goldplat hit a new 52 week low - yesterday

[sea7] 05/3/2024 09:32

pan african is up 72% off its June 2023 low

[shill10] 05/3/2024 09:30

Also DRD shares bounced 20% from the lows, the higher this goes the more feasible a takeover

[shill10] 05/3/2024 09:26

Yep gold in rand up 8% since last communication, that probably increases the profit on TSF by c 20%

[sea7] 05/3/2024 09:02

gold is also pushing thru $2120 at the moment, as well as those highs in rand, you referenced.

[sea7] 05/3/2024 08:59

yep - I am expecting some further details on the commercials and the new jorc soon - or at least that is how I see it.

[kimboy2] 05/3/2024 08:58

The pipeline is the thing.Once that is in place they will be ready to go. I have always presumed that the connection to GDP will be finished before the complete pipe to 5L23.

ISTR that Werner said the pipeline to GDP would take about 9-12 months.

Once the permissions are in place for the pipe, and the contract with DRD revealed (which may come first), then the share price will start taking the benefit into consideration.

[sea7] 05/3/2024 08:35

According to the assumed timelines in the document above, which is from 2022, they indicate in section 9.5.1 Model input files and integration - page 137 of the document - (ignore the page numbers on the bottom right of each page, they don't mean much overall) the following for the 5L23 Tailings dump which will use the same pipeline as goldplat...

2023 to 2025 Ergo ramp up period
2026 to 2032 Ergo operational period
2033 to 2035 Ergo ramp down and rehabilitation period

based on the above, I have never expected the goldplat TSF to begin processing until 2025 at the earliest.

[kimboy2] 05/3/2024 04:53

While we have all been twiddling our thumbs the rand price of gold went through 40k rand for the first time. It is up 18% in the year compared to a South African inflation rate of about 5%.

I know we are more than fed up waiting for the TSF to resolve itself but the wait is defintely working to our long term benefit.

It could easy be that the increase in gold over the last couple of years has doubled the profit to be made from the TSF.

Not that you would know from looking at the share price

[kimboy2] 22/2/2024 19:03

Well if we just look on an operating basis then I think GDP is cheap. It can of course be argued that there is no trigger to move it to something more realistic till it starts issuing dividends.

I think that is reasonable and I expect in the coming period cash flow will improve and they will start buy backs. Having said that GDP is operating in Africa and is accident prone os who knows.

That of course is not the whole story. There is the TSF. We don't know;
1. How much the TSF is worth.
2. When production will happen.

We know, or think we know, that the TSF is worth a lot relative to the GDP market cap, and it is going to happen, probably quite soon.

I reckon the post tax revenue from the TSF is likely twice the current market cap of GDP.

If that were true then the trigger event is the TSF and when it happens.