Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[dangersimpson2] 08/4/2024 21:25

I guess it's horses for courses. For me, a promotional CEO is a red flag since they have got there by being a salesperson. This is a business that doesn't need salespeople; it needs serious people who focus on the things that matter, such as margins, costs and security of supply.

While it certainly wasn't an ebullient performance by any stretch of the imagination, there were many positive points:

1. New tailings facility complete.
2. Very confident generators will be operational on the current timetable.
3. Current load-shedding having little impact.
4. Pushing DRD to get going on the TSF as soon as possible may even be looking at interim transport solutions as the pipeline requires water licenses. They know this is highly profitable at current gold prices, and they will prioritise speed of execution over maximising gold recovery in the short term.
5. Ghana should continue to perform at current strong levels.
6. Believe the share price significantly undervalues the cash-generative nature of the business.
7. The extended refinery pipeline is now normalised and should be releasing working capital.
8. coming to the end of capital investment cycle. Up until the end of the FY, the focus will be on repaying debt and completing committed capex. Then only maintenance capex is required, and cash will be directed to buybacks and/or dividends.

I know many will only believe it when they see it, but this is the clearest indication I've known that they will focus on returning cash not capex.

[1ups1de] 08/4/2024 19:06

I've been a disappointed shareholder for some time. Their ability to slip on banana skins is unrivalled. Never impressed with their shareholder presentations. Another example tonight. Always fearful to suggest a positive future ( under the umbrella of avoiding forward looking statements!) . I hope the analysis shared does result in a good re rate.

[lowtrawler] 08/4/2024 16:12

In terms of profitability for the ongoing business. The delay in getting the generators and continuing SA power outages means EPS this year will likely be around 1.5p. With the generators installed, I would expect sustainable EPS of around 2p.


As a mature business, I would expect at least 80% of attributable earnings to be returned to shareholders over a cycle. Once the dust settles and the business feels adequately capitalised, it will mean we should expect a sustainable shareholder return of around 1.6p per share. That would support a share-price of approximately 15p.


Once the TSF is actually underway (and assuming the £40m after tax attributable profit is accurate), we will probably see another 15p added to the share-price in preparation for the windfall. Overall, a share-price of 30p does not seem impossible. However, there will inevitably be an Africa discount and an execution risk discount that will mean we never quite get there.


Providing GDP indicate their intention to provide this level of return to shareholders and properly communicate the TSF opportunity, the share-price should start to respond.

[lowtrawler] 08/4/2024 11:39

etrugal, based on kimboys conservative assessment of the TSF profitability (post 10927) and current pog, there is probably $75m pre-tax profit. Let's call it $50m after tax, about £40m. That alone is over 20p per share. OK, it needs to be discounted for time, risk etc. but so long as GDP properly communicate the TSF opportunity, a substantial part of this value should make its way through to the share price. Together with a more realistic value placed on the ongoing business, it is possible we will reach 20p quite quickly and still be able to demonstrate room for growth.

[shill10] 08/4/2024 11:34

hope everyone on here has the size they want, FOMO will start soon in gold stocks imo

[ertugrul] 08/4/2024 10:22

Gold at all time high and we will benefit most from it.Price correction has not even come yet for GDP Real value is over 20p here imo

[smackeraim] 08/4/2024 09:32

People are starting to click methinks.

[ertugrul] 08/4/2024 09:28

Doing really wellHopefully 10p coming this week. Hold on guys

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 07/4/2024 11:10

hTTps://presentations.investormeetcompany.com/investor-meet-company/GOLDPLAT-PLC-Interim-Results?bmid=7fc7e07c8dbc

[wigwammer] 06/4/2024 10:28

I don't agree that management have made lots of material mistakes, or that there is much evidence they will squander whatever returns are made from the TSF. The equity has been growing, suggesting they are building underlying value. The step change in gold price should now materially play into their hands. Onwards and upwards..

[michaelfenton] 06/4/2024 10:07

Goldplat is pretty sound as a small business however the management has made many mistakes (too many to list) and takes their salaries (not small for a small company) aand does nothing for long-term holders like me. I took advantage of MO entry to divist most of my holding at a reasonable profit. Now left with 100,000 which I will let run.

[lowtrawler] 06/4/2024 10:03

Nobody minds waiting providing they know what they are waiting for. If past experience is any judge then they may use all the proceeds from the TSF to expand into new markets and business ventures. Perhaps Martin wants to create a global player and the TSF will fund that ambition?The absence of policies and strategies properly communicated to shareholders means we could each be waiting around expecting different things. I don't expect to influence their strategy but I do expect to know what it is.

[ih_692232] 06/4/2024 09:46

Interesting observation-patience
I invested a substantial sum into this company over a decade ago-I had one dividend payment well over ten years ago - so have I been patient??? Has it been a good investment so far - no
We have here a company run for the benefit of whom? Shareholders is correct answer -and for shareholders the last ten years has yielded zilch
The board you see don’t have to think about rewarding shareholders because they see shareholders as incapable of acting together to effect change in the company that the shareholders actually own
The board need to be clearly made aware that shareholders are entitled to and expect reward and that a company should be run properly to make sure there are profits to distribute -it’s a chip shop the way it’s been run and they can get away with it if their first priority every year was to from profits pay a dividend the company would be run differently
Its in effect a loan of capital that they never need pay any interest on
The board takes on business loans oh and gosh they have to pay interest on them
What’s the difference ???
Oh shareholders don’t get any interest (dividend) at all !!!!
Alm

[wigwammer] 06/4/2024 09:19

I'm not sure this age is that much different to previous ages, successful investing requires patience, more often than not. It will probably take more than one year, but less that five years so anticipate a three year horizon and get on with other things... I expect a 200%+return, more than satisfactory for a three year wait. ATB

[russman] 06/4/2024 06:44

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[wigwammer] 05/4/2024 11:15

Interesting to note - I think - that the company actually built on its equity position over the last 12 months, as reported in the last interims. Equity attributable to parent rose £1.2m - that's pretty impressive given the backdrop. Market hugely underestimating the impact of the 400-500cent rise in gold price on the TSF, imo.

[shill10] 05/4/2024 11:08

the truth is all gold miner investors have been absolutely shafted over the last decade, its been disaster sector-in fact Goldplat has done better than most - there are so many bargains now in the sector with Gold at $2,300 and all I see is long suffering investors selling spikes, not buying dips - this is the start of a big bull market imo. But a tiddler like Goldplat may well take longer than bigger sized miners to be spotted, let's see. When the AIM swarm visits it should be a thing of beauty.

[kimboy2] 05/4/2024 10:50

Patience is a scarce resource.

While we have been impatiently waiting for action the rand price of gold has risen 21% in the last 6 months.

[shill10] 05/4/2024 10:23

talking sense as always Dangers

[dangersimpson2] 05/4/2024 09:57

While I believe that there are a lot of things around shareholder communication that could be done much better. e.g. hearing from not just Werner but the wider team on presentations, or getting the accounts in on time so that the AGM can be held at a time we can all attend.

However, the idea that the board are failing to properly consider shareholder returns is just daft IMO. This is a difficult business where access to capital is king, because no one is bailing you out when inevitable problems arrive. Keeping some cash enables security of supply for materials to process, the ability to invest in generators for power issues, and to fund delays in the refinery pipeline. If they'd paid out all that cash in the past, they would be in trouble now.

However, when things go well, this is a phenomenally cash-generative business. Just look what Ghana has done recently, with the potential to do even more as a West African/South American hub. The cash returns when they arrive could be very material. It just requires patience and the trust that the management are running this business for the long term, not just a short-term dividend payout to prove the naysayers wrong. Not least because the returns from being able to negotiate the TSF processing from a position of strength could dwarf the dividends payable from the core businesses. That said, I agree that some kind of dividend/buyback policy, e.g. x% of earnings when the cash balance exceeds £xm, or excess cash above £xm level minus committed capex, would certainly add clarity on when we can expect payouts.

Organising some kind of shareholder action group doesn't make sense to me. It is more likely to distract management and lead to more guarded communication rather than open up new dialogue. I'm all for making sure shareholders are heard. I have attended AGMs here in the past and even voted against the re-election of all the non-execs, including the (old) chairman, on the basis that they held fewer shares than me. This led to a more open discussion on how shareholders viewed the management's actions at the time.

If anyone wants more influence over how things are run, they need to buy more shares. A lot more shares. If you build a notifiable stake, particularly one where you can call an EGM or appoint a board member, you can guarantee the management will listen. A rag-tag bunch with a % here and there and different ideas, when there is already a 29% holder, not so much.

[wigwammer] 05/4/2024 09:02

Like clockwork. Russman talks negatively about GDP, and the shares go up :)

[kimboy2] 05/4/2024 08:08

Martin didn't have to intervene. It was before he was on the board. IIRC a couple of million had been put into Kili and it wasn't enough. Gerard put the question about putting more money into to leading shareholders.Don't know ow many but I believe MO was negative.

Sea said something the other day about the quality of management and outomes. My problem with Kili was always whther they could get sufficiently good management for an operation producing 5koz pa.

They couldn't. Not only was it being run inefficiently but there was duff information on which to base decisions.

The shareholders, whoever they were, made the correct decision. Even with the money GCAT have put in it is still failing.