Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[ertugrul] 07/5/2024 20:58

Takeover at 20p would be good

[kimboy2] 07/5/2024 18:40

The pattern of options has tended to be set at the current price fora few years into the future. The problem is that GDP is always potentially pregnant with news that may make the option price a false price.

On the other hand perhaps the lawyers are away on holiday. Who knows?

[lowtrawler] 07/5/2024 14:59

MF, it would be rare for takeover speculation to actually materialise so soon after the discussion and so I wouldn't jump to conclusions on the Options not being published. If a bid is to happen, it will do so in it's own time.

The whole market seems to be buoyant at the moment and so my guess is we are just rising with it.

[michaelfenton] 07/5/2024 13:10

Yes no new options would mean something?

[kimboy2] 07/5/2024 12:46

Up 5% and no comment?

About a month ago they said that the options would be announced shortly for the 2 new directors, andthey haven't been.

Also the generators were meant to be commissioned at the end of April. Perhaps they have been and no further comment necessary.

Anyway I expect all will be revealed in the 3rd quarter statement which I was expecting today.

[lowtrawler] 03/5/2024 23:03

Thanks Kimboy, lots to think about.

I was thinking he would probably be very happy with a 3x return on his investment which would pitch a price somewhere between 15p and 20p. The obvious time to sell is before processing the TSF or he would have to remain invested for another c.5 years. DRD would be the obvious purchaser. At 20p, it would cost them less than £34m and profits from the TSF would likely cover most of that amount with £3m+ of ongoing attributable profit from the core business making it a bit of a no-brainer.

We know that commercial terms with DRD for the TSF are close to being finalised. Perhaps a bid is closer than we think.

[kimboy2] 03/5/2024 22:08

Well, the first thing is whether DRD would want GDP.

DRD are used to buying up heaps of tailings. In this case they would be buying a heap with a profitable niche company attached. What is more they could buy it with GDP's share of the profit of a theoretical contract,

Seems a no brainer to me.

If a bid is to be made then Martin Ooi is key. Unless they get him on board DRD cannot make the bid unconditionalas as they need 90% of the shares. They won't be able to delist or mop up the rest of the shares.

One or two reasons why I think a bid is better than a 50/50.

Firstly DRD is the one in control of the TSF. They can string it out,or duck out or whatever and GDP don't have many alternative routes to monetise the heap. At least not as profitably.

If DRD really wanted GDP they could play dirty and GDP shares may be marooned in much the same place as they are now, or less.

Martin Ooi will be aware of this,plus the virtual impossibility of getting rid of such a large holding on the open market. He certainly won't want his money marooned for potentially years in such a risky environment as South Africa.

The alternative for him is to develop the TSF and pay it out as a dividend. I believe the Aussie tax rate on the CGT of a sale would be half of the income tax on a dividend.

I have no doubt that GDP will, in theory, be worth more if they develop the TSF, but cash in hand comes at a premium.

I suspect MO is expecting 20p, but would take 17p. he is at an average cost of 5-6p (?).

One thing that is never considered is what are MO's personal circumstances. He has a medical practice in Australia. Is he indebted? Would the cash be better deployed in his medical practice?

The opportunity cost of the cash to MO may well be the deciding factor,if a bid emerges.

[lowtrawler] 03/5/2024 17:23

Kimboy, regarding your views on a bid:

"If there is to be a bid then it will come before a contractual agreement is announced, IMV. They could of course announce a bid without Martin Ooi's agreeing to sell, but I don't think they will. It would get very messy and the bid couldn't go unconditional."

I tend to agree with this. In fact, I think it highly unlikely any bid would be announced unless Martin was signed up to it.

With the contractual agreements due to be in place shortly, what do you think are the chances a bid will be announced in the next few weeks? What price do you think Martin would accept?

IMV, Martin will need a bid to divest his holding. If a bid is most likely to be made prior to announcement of the contractual agreement then there must be a reasonable chance a bid will be made in the next few weeks. I suspect Martin will want more than 15p but I'm unsure how low he would actually go. Would he sell under 20p?

[shill10] 29/4/2024 13:36

200k available at 8.05p currently if anyone looking to top up.

[sea7] 26/4/2024 19:34

good interview with Niel Pretorious of DRD from feb this year, he talks of..

getting 1 tonne every 5 seconds through their pipelines and aim to make 150 to 180 rand, per site, every 5 seconds.

[shill10] 26/4/2024 18:56

for me the JORC is almost irrelevant ,we know the tonnage, they will have a very good idea of the total gold contained and grades just from a few samples. The deal with DRD is everything, ditto the recovery %, then we can see the financial implications with some certainty.

[kimboy2] 26/4/2024 17:50

Well they haven't started a new JORC so I would have thought that would be at least 6 months.

I am not sure a new JORC will be a catalyst of anything, the last one didn't do much.

It needs action. There are various things that could be a step in that direction.
1. Sorting out all permissions and ready to go on construction
2. Contract agreement with DRD
3. Trucking operation as a stop gap while permission/construction persued.
4. A bid.

There was a suggestion, perhaps inference is the word, as to a trucking operation. I can't remember what he said but I thought trucking was the only conclusion if not explicitly mentiond.

There has also been the suggestion, and I think this was stated, that they will soon reach an agreement with DRD. As soon as that happens I would have thought they will produce all the metrics, other than the total tonnage which will require a JORC.

If we know the recovery precentage, the processing cost/DRD's take and the capital cost then we can figure it out for ourselves.

If there is to be a bid then it will come before a contractual agreement is announced, IMV. They could of course announce a bid without Martin Ooi's agreeing to sell, but I don't think they will. It would get very messy and the bid couldn't go unconditional.

The next event will be the Q3 results which should be in the next couple of weeks.

[lowtrawler] 26/4/2024 15:41

dinky00, if Kimboy is correct and the JORC update will be at least 6 months away, I doubt that will be the next driver.

[dinky00] 26/4/2024 15:19

Easy to argue that the price will go up in big jumps once buying kicks in. Suspect we need the JORC estimate revision as the next catalyst

[lowtrawler] 26/4/2024 15:08

The spread remains horrendous: Real spread at the moment is 7.81 - 8.175 for a 10,000 trade. The sharp price movements continue to be based on low volumes. Until volume improves and the spread narrows, I doubt we will see price stability. IMV and for the time-being, it means we are unlikely to make a sustainable increase on the current price.

[ertugrul] 26/4/2024 14:52

Chart shaping up nicely, ready to jump up

[dinky00] 19/4/2024 08:41

If there is little or no requirement for the generators (6% loss of production days) then the generators will remain unused and will have a strong resale value one day. If there is major outages then the generators will be useful. Either way, these are an asset.

[kimboy2] 19/4/2024 08:20

It will increase capacity but will be loss making IMV. Perhaps we should view them as an insurance policy.

[ertugrul] 19/4/2024 07:17

Eventually they arrived will increase the capacity and profit ?

[kimboy2] 19/4/2024 07:08

31/5/23 Due to the increased uncertainty of supply in the medium term, we have made a decision to invest in diesel generators which will be able to sustain operations in South Africa during electricity cuts. The capital cost of these investments will be GBP750,000 and will be financed over 36 months with one of our local banks. We estimate that it will take 12 - 14 weeks to receive and install these generators. Based on 25% of available hours expected to be lost during the next 24 months, we expect that the capital cost will be recovered within 24 months.

[kimboy2] 18/4/2024 15:41

He said they 'want to update the jorc resource, potentially.'

If they ordered it today you are looking at 6 months.

[lowtrawler] 18/4/2024 15:20

The trades coming through aren't exactly huge and so it just shows how thinly traded we are with relatively limited trading leading to large movements in the price.

I still think we have yet to consolidate around the 7.9p resistance level before moving onto 8.9p and then 10p. IMV, we don't need any additional news for the leg up to 8.9p, just time. I believe 10p will need some positive news. If they get communication of the TSF right, we should sail past 10p but communication has never been a strength.

[shill10] 18/4/2024 14:28

reasonable consolidation of previous gains, now for the next leg, should be 11p+ before DRD announcement for me, esp given performance of gold miners sector.

[ertugrul] 18/4/2024 14:22

It's imminent