Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[lowtrawler] 12/12/2024 10:34

yasX, the problem with waiting is thin trading. At the point they announce a dividend, it will be impossible to buy in any volume and the price will spike. The only way to build a reasonable sized holding is to drip purchase over an extended period. If you have joined the calls with Werner this year, you will have noticed a change of narrative. I don't believe there is any doubt a dividend / buybacks or both will happen in 2025.
Of course, the other reason why waiting is not sensible is the possibility of a bid. The TSF is a valuable asset and DRD would almost certainly be interested in owning it outright if they can get GDP for the right price. Fortunately, there is little chance they could get away with a cheeky bid due to the presence of Martin.
Personally, I exited GDP in early 2023 and only returned in mid 2024 when I noted the progress being made. Trading in and out has allowed me to make sizeable profits but I am now here for whatever 2025 brings.

[yasx] 12/12/2024 08:10

Same discussion for years…..

“if they gave a dividend…..221;

However, they have not given anything - until they do it remains dead money.

Perhaps it might be better to wait for an announcement rather than waiting patiently for years.

[michaelfenton] 12/12/2024 03:57

Lowtrawler - I retain a holding but just sitting quietly waiting for some action other than increasing profits?

[lowtrawler] 11/12/2024 22:39

alm2, good to see you being more positive. Keep it up.

[ih_692232] 11/12/2024 22:03

Low
I think 20p will be reached sooner - when they start paying dividends /buybacks it will fly above 10 and reach 20 very quickly
Bringing the TSF to a start up will cement that SP
And it could easily get bought out
Just need to take this path
Alm

[lowtrawler] 11/12/2024 19:21

MF, this is a stable, profitable, debt free, cash generating business that has also stumbled on a way to grow organically. Now is not the time to give up hope just as they are on the cusp of unlocking the TSF and releasing funds to shareholders.
Their size means you are never going to get the best management or resilient operating processes but they have navigated to an enviable position. Developing the business into Ghana has been transformational and they can repeat the model with South America.

IMV, we will easily see the share price in double figures during 2025. I will be disappointed if they aren't nudging 20p by the end of 2027. My rough thought process is 2025, token dividends and buybacks will take them to 10p. Unlocking the hurdles to the TSF will take them to around 13p. 2026 and 2027, continue restructuring and put the TSF into development. End 2027, TSF being monetised and paid out as special dividend. The core business also starts to pay a realistic dividend of over 1p

[michaelfenton] 11/12/2024 15:38

I would happily accept 1/2p dividend as I have long since given up on getting anything.

[ih_692232] 11/12/2024 15:22

Low
I agree
Start somewhere !!!
Alm

[lowtrawler] 11/12/2024 14:59

alm2, it depends how you measure the proceeds of Kili, the subsequent claim on funds and write-downs probably mean the buyback was about right. Frankly, getting anything for Kili was a bonus.
IMV, they have used cash since Kili to help create a more secure business. There were clearly a lot of hidden structural problems that have now been largely addressed. Ideally, the management would probably want to use another 2 years FCF to address the remaining issues but realise they need to address shareholder concerns sooner. As a result, I expect both buybacks and dividends in 2025 but at a disappointing level.
If they were completely stable, we would get a dividend of over 1.5p per annum. Personally, I don't think they will offer more than 0.5p and it could be even less. Still, they have to start somewhere.

[ih_692232] 11/12/2024 14:43

Low - I recall now - am I right though that this extended to only 400k and was indeed well short of the proceeds of sale of Kili - so they did not fulfil the promise they had made to shareholders over Kili
Maybe they could make another promise to buyback and see it through this time !!!
Alm

[lowtrawler] 11/12/2024 14:40

alm2, not quite true. They did a limited buyback programme to return the proceeds of Kili. The market had expected the programme to be extended but it never was.

The challenge remains how to achieve material buybacks while keeping Martin under 30%. There are various options but in the absence of a company announcement, probably safer to assume any buybacks will be quite limited.

[ih_692232] 11/12/2024 12:19

Low - yes they announced buy back some time ago -but I don’t think they ever did
Given they should be flush with cash buy back would go towards some return of shareholder value and is the very least step they should take in the new year -dividends and the TSF development are the other two requirements to lift the share price to above 20 p
Alm

[lowtrawler] 11/12/2024 08:48

Having an AGM resolution that permits buybacks is not the same as announcing a buyback programme. From what I recall, they have had a buyback clause for a few years now.

[sw112233] 10/12/2024 21:40

Special resolution 8 in the AGM provides for share buyback of up to 10% of share capital:

That, the Company be and is hereby generally and unconditionally authorised in accordance with section 701 of the Companies Act 2006 to make market purchases (within the meaning of section 693(4) of the Companies Act 2006) of the Ordinary Shares of £0.01 each in the capital of the Company("Ordinary Shares") upon or subject to the following conditions:
a. the maximum number of Ordinary Shares which may be purchased is 16,778,267 representing approximately 10 percent of the issued ordinary share capital of the Company;
b. the maximum price at which Ordinary Shares may be purchased shall be 5 percent above the average of the middle market quotations for the Ordinary Shares as taken from the Daily Official List of the London Stock Exchange for the five business days preceding the date of purchase

[lowtrawler] 10/12/2024 17:01

Looks like the excitement has now died down but left us towards the top of the trading range rather than near the bottom. I think it was useful to get others to sit up and take notice how undervalued we are. However, not many new investors seemed to hop on board - at least, none with deep pockets.

I strongly suspect we will need a dividend / buy-back announcement to break out of the trading range.

[swiss paul] 09/12/2024 18:47

Comeback victory confirmed for Ghana's John Mahama

This election comes amid the worst economic crisis in a generation.

Unemployment, the cost of living and concerns over the environmental impact of illegal gold mining, known as "galmasey", were among the key issues.

[lowtrawler] 09/12/2024 10:14

kimboy2, in the notice of AGM RNS, they say:

"The Annual Report and accounts are in the process of being finalised and will be published before 31 December 2024. Resolution 1, to receive the report of the Directors of the Company and the audited financial statements of the Company for the year ended 30 June 2024, will be adjourned until such time as they can be forwarded to shareholders and the requisite notice given."

[kimboy2] 09/12/2024 07:50

I thought 21 days was a requirement, but apparently not. Perhaps it is a guideline.

[ertugrul] 08/12/2024 21:01

Some further good news will help to smash 8p barrier

[kimboy2] 08/12/2024 18:49

I think that companies are required to give the results a minimum 21 days before the AGM.

If that is true then we should get the results tomorrow.

[kimboy2] 07/12/2024 16:00

Through recent engagement with the Ghana authorities, it has become clear that their preference is for us to refine as much material to bullion as possible in Country.

I think that tells you why.

[ih_692232] 07/12/2024 14:02

Kimboy
It’s all very troubling and the failure to explain 900k expenditure in detail is typical of this board - they just spend what they like when they like -it maybe for good reasons but never is the detail given that enables shareholders to have confidence in what they do - the same applies now to the latest RBS as to Ghana
But at least this is on the positive side
Roll on to getting the deal done with DRG and buyout —-or huge dividends
Alm

[kimboy2] 07/12/2024 09:25

They haven't really explained what is going on in Ghana in any detail. It would be interesting to know the payback period on thie £900k they're spending.

In the old days we used to get Edison reports which explained these sorts of things.

[dangersimpson2] 07/12/2024 08:57

£4.8m PBT at the last note that has the block model. £6m announced this week. not seen an updated note, but we will get the actual figures soon.

My guess is that this is simply a function of the strength of production in Ghana in Q4 and the length of the pipeline to get it refined and the changes in gold price. Normally these factors even themselves out over time, but a big final quarter combined with a long refining pipeline and gold going up significantly made this material in this case.

This is another reason why getting paid 2 weeks after shipping dore bars in Ghana will make things simpler overall, even if it has a capital cost up front.

[kimboy2] 07/12/2024 08:07

The auditor says;
The Group generates its revenue from the sale of precious
metals. The Group recognises this revenue when the metals are
delivered to the customer and the customer takes control of
the metals in line with the contractual terms.

The sales price is estimated by management on a provisional
basis as 95% of market price at the end of the month in which
the material is delivered to the refiner. Consequently, there is
a risk that revenue is not recognised in accordance with IFRS
15 Revenue from Contracts with Customers. Specifically, there
is potential for cut off errors arising around the timing of
the recognition of revenue and accuracy errors arising from
the sales transactions which require estimated valuations to
conclude on pricing.

The question then is if the amount is wrong what do they do about it? This falls into whether it is material or not. The auditor says;

For each significant component in the scope of our audit, we allocated a materiality based on the maximum aggregate component materiality. The range of materiality allocated across components was between GBP150,000 and GBP110,000.

We agreed with the Audit Committee that we would report to them misstatements identified during our audit above GBP 8,000 as well as misstatements below those amounts that, in our view, warranted reporting for qualitative reasons.

Clearly the uplift over the estimate was greater than £150k.

The next thing is whether they announce this to the market. The company have to announce if the deviation is deemed to be 'material'. In this instance material means exceed analyst estimates by 10-15%, which is the consensus threshhold.

I have no idea what the analyst estimates were but that would indicate that they were exceeded by at least £0.5 - 1 million.