Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[ccr1958] 21/3/2017 08:48

Great results ,excellent product and growth .. I am back in !

[neurolodger] 21/3/2017 08:21

MWPlease pardon my ignorance - what is reason to expect share price to go down after opening?

[madmix] 21/3/2017 08:10

GI,

Prior to today, market forecasts were for a 6% rise in PBT from £35m in 2016 to £37.2m in 2017. So they certainly set the bar low.

I'm not expecting 73% revenue growth in 2017, but something like 40-50%.

[sogoesit] 21/3/2017 08:08

Indeed; market currently rating it in high 50's trailing P/E.

[martywidget] 21/3/2017 08:04

As anticipated, opening down after preliminary results:

Fevertree Drinks PLC Preliminary Results
21/03/2017 7:00am



I see some aren't using a particular harmonic chart/gann square nine etc, oh well! oh yeah, and my crystal ball!

[greek islander] 21/3/2017 07:55

Results are clearly exceptional and will strongly beat the broker forecasts but much as expected. Difficult to work out what effect this will have on the share price Up one would think but perhaps back to £15 is all we should be expecting then we can hope for more. Most important is will investors see scope for a further similar trading revenue increase in 2017 or has the bar been set a little too high? PS Early sell off guess profit taking, not unusual but it should hopefully settle down once the market appreciates what an amazing company we are dealing with here. Unrivalled growth continues with the promise of much moe.

[wetdream] 21/3/2017 07:36

Great results, as expected, so interesting to see how much is already in the price.
Rolls moving to non-exec role probably no surprise. Just hope he holds onto his shares!

[sogoesit] 21/3/2017 07:32

Quick summary of prospects for fiscal 2017:
Revenue growth of, say, 60% gives £163m
At 35% EBITDA that makes £57m and Earnings of 40p/share (57 x 0.80 / 115).
P/E of 50 > £20/share.
Is that a Buy?

[broadwood] 21/3/2017 07:08

"2016 has been another exceptional year of growth for Fever-Tree, with strong results achieved across all regions, channels and flavours, emphasising the global appeal of the Fever-Tree brand. As the pioneer and market leader of the premium mixer category, in both market share and reputation, our quality, award winning range of products continues to help drive the momentum towards premiumisation and simple long drink mixability that is transforming both the spirits and mixer categories worldwide

I think we can drink to that.

[sogoesit] 20/3/2017 21:47

Not to forget that there are other elements at play than "just" revenue.
The Update was quite specific about revenue but, additionally, it separately talked about cash-flow (profits and profitability).

On cash-flow:
"Over the period, Fever-Tree's free cash flow generation and balance sheet have remained strong. Accordingly, the Group's year-end net cash position is anticipated to be ahead of Board expectations."

So, although they probably will not overshoot on the £102m, they have raised expectations on profits and profitability.
Also we will get an updated view on how Q1 trading is going and see whether "acceleration", mentioned in the last update, continues.

[wetdream] 20/3/2017 20:48

I don't see the company being anything less than optimistic-otherwise what's the point?!
I guess the question is whether the competition choose to compete, or give in and take Fevertree out.
Even if they choose to compete, could be good news and expand the whole mixer sector.
So win-win!

[apad] 20/3/2017 19:50

"The Board is pleased to announce that the strong growth achieved in the first half of the year accelerated in the second half of 2016. It is expected that sales in the second half will be ahead of the prior year period by 75%. As a result, full year revenue is expected to be circa £102.2 million, reflecting growth of 73% on 2015."

from rns, maybe I'm being a little optimistic.

apad

[apad] 20/3/2017 18:44

ps
The highest guess by the tintins was £102m if I remember correctly.

[apad] 20/3/2017 17:54

FWIW

I would place a lower bound on turnover of £110m.
Anything else will be a disappointment.

US grew 59% over interims and UK 108%.
I would like to see US growth accelerating.

Off to sacrifice a goat.

apad

[sogoesit] 20/3/2017 10:44

Caught some at 1423p

Let's see if those "dark spirits" come into play tomorrow.
Good luck.

[wetdream] 20/3/2017 10:28

From what I recall, turnover of about £100m for 2016 is expected and should therefore be in the price-after all, the co's mkt cap is c.£1.6bn!
I think the masterplan is to be taken out by a giant like Diageo, so we might hear news on mkt share gains which will make them more attractive as a t/o target?
All imho.

[apad] 20/3/2017 10:27

ps
Good luck for tomorrow, all!

[apad] 20/3/2017 10:27

The US is the key to how the market will react to the results in my opinion.

I increased twice this morning. Must be nuts!

apad

[greek islander] 20/3/2017 09:57

On no more than a hunch I have just doubled my holding on weakness. The most recent RNS was unequivocal that the figures would be pretty amazing and on that basis I am gambling on 1600-1700 short term and then onwards to 2000. This company has never disappointed and has always been sensible on predictions. I sense senational results that might well sweep predictions away.

[sogoesit] 20/3/2017 09:35

Could be support at 1485 otherwise 1350'ish next support line imv.
Given "expectations" 1350 seems a bit low so I will add some below 1485 either today or tomorrow.

[wetdream] 20/3/2017 09:14

People understandably nervous before results as so much is expected and difficult to work out how much is already in the price.

[martywidget] 18/3/2017 08:55

Victoria Moore: Fever Tree has designs on your rum and whisky mixers
18 March 2017 • 7:00am

[martywidget] 17/3/2017 11:34

Fevertree Turns to Dark Spirits to Sustain High-Flying Shares
by Charlotte Ryan
17 March 2017, 07:00 GMT

Analysts see growth potential in new mixers and countries
‘The end game is that it gets acquired,’ says Shore Capital



(Opening paragraph - "Fevertree Drinks Plc shares have nearly tripled since its 2014 initial public offering"... - The shares of course have currently gone up just over eleven fold from the IPO price).

[..."But don’t crack open a bottle just yet, as Carroll still sees some risk to the downside for Fevertree. The company’s extremely strong year in 2016 presents tough comparatives, the analyst says. The results next week could see shares fall “if you don’t get the upgrades the market wants.” Fevertree is guiding for annual sales “materially ahead" of its previous expectations, predicting a 73 percent increase on the prior year to 102.2 million pounds"].