Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[staverly] 12/4/2017 14:40

W82 ... To the best of my knowledge only a handful of brokers currently cover FEVR. Their prevailing consensus in the context of FY17 sales and profits suggest that expectations are actually rather low. As a retail investor I haven't seen the source dox but my data vendor concurs with your figures. If the regular May trading update confirms that the brokers are (yet again) behind the curve, then radical revisions must surely follow.

BTW, since arriving last week, it's selling like hot cakes in my local village store.

[walbrock82] 12/4/2017 12:03

Fevertree Drink is a great and straightforward business to understand. The shares became an 11 bagger in just 28 months!

But analysts forecast for Fevertree going forward doesn’t look fundamentally great with estimates of revenue for 2017 and 2018 at £119m and £136m respectively.
Meanwhile, EPS is estimated at 26 pence/share for 2017, and 29 pence/share in 2018.
Remember, 2016’s EPS is 23.7 pence/share.


Below is a summary of Fevertree:
- The company sells premium mixers at 36 pence per 100ml vs. Schweppes’s 22 pence.
- It operates in over 50 different markets, especially in two most important locations of Europe and America.
- It raised £90m from its IPOs, this money is instrumental in paying off past loans.
-The net margin grew to 26%.
- Capex spending is £1m per year. But, as sales grow, will it have enough capacity to fulfil larger orders?
-Fevertree’s cash balance has ballooned from £3m to £33m making it cash generative.
-Management cash in some early success by selling combined shares worth £17m at £6.25 per share.
-Last year was a breakout year for Fevertree with revenue up 72%. But analysts could spoil the party if estimates of between 14% and 16% revenue growth for 2017 and 2018 comes true.
It would make the shares look overvalue.
-The share price more than doubled from a year ago.

Found the above information interesting, then click for more analysis and charts:

[wetdream] 12/4/2017 11:40

Imho the key to the next set of figures is their success, or otherwise, in the US.
Don't think we can keep expecting similar growth in the UK-although mentions on This Morning TV show, can't do any harm!

[sogoesit] 12/4/2017 10:20

Thanks bamboo; I seeded my new ISA with a Fever Tree yesterday at about 1565 coincidentally as I thought it looked like a pop.
I think this year has seen, and will see, the stock's "popularity" increase as we've seen with press coverage. This should add to momentum imv.

Indeed, Apad, thanks for the feed-back. It must be a fairly "cut-throat" business.

[bamboo2] 12/4/2017 08:47

Regarding the turn mentioned on 10/4/17, I think that it was marked by yesterdays low.

We currently have some trendline resistance to get through. Price is coiling, gathering strength.

EOD close above 1565 confirms a revised tp up to 1650, although historical resistance now approx 1585.

Potential turn noted for 20/4/17

[bookbroker] 11/4/2017 02:15

This stock has a heck of a load of gaps it will close at some point, if you believe in that theory, and barring a takeover at current levels!

[bookbroker] 11/4/2017 02:04

Half of these watering holes are subsidized by the producer to sell their mixers, this is a short on the basis that they would have to grow EPS by 100% pa for the next two years to justify that multiple!

[apad] 10/4/2017 14:09

Sog...
The hotel where I discovered what people were prepared to pay for tonic and so bought FEVR have switched to Fentimens!
"They made us a better offer - it's all about the bottom line"

apad

[bamboo2] 10/4/2017 09:26

Potential turn mid week, so no harm in a few down days.

[sogoesit] 10/4/2017 07:54

So, on a long weekend from last week I went to visit friends in Yorkshire & stopped over 3 or 4 times on the way. Out of 2 hotels & 4 restaurants only 2 had Fever Tree tonic. One hotel bar didn't even have Schhhhh and offered me Britvic!
What that says to me is that the UK market is still ripe for further penetration.
So, even without "dark spirits" lurking around I'm still optimistic about the tonic market. Let's just hope that's also realistic.
Anyway, I'll now bed my new ISA with FEVR & BOO & hope for good luck in the coming year.

[walbrock82] 07/4/2017 14:03

People should stop saying the reason why I shorted Fevertree is because there are cheaper, but similar version of the mixer.

If the people like Fevertree mixers they will buy it.

It's like saying APPLE has the best technological smartphone in the market (it clearly doesn't), but APPLE has a following and a brand that people gravitate to. Design, social proof, word of mouth contributes to why people would buy the product.

[walbrock82] 07/4/2017 10:03

There are reasons to think Fevertree is fair value, despite a ten bagger. See here: target='_blank' />

But, the share price looks fully priced in for this year, if the premium mixer were to repeat the same performance as last year.

[staverly] 07/4/2017 02:52

Interesting to note bullet point on p2 of recently released AR, which states (verbatim): "With strong growth prospects in all our four reporting geographies, ...". Coming off the back of 102% organic EPS growth with impressive operational gearing, bit of a head scratcher how sell-side equity analysts appear to be currently estimating less than 10% Y/Y EPS growth. It's not as though the business model is complicated, anything but. Thankfully, I stopped taking any notice of these market prognosticators a while back.

[bookbroker] 06/4/2017 19:15

Not much free stock avaliable, that's why it will rise on light volume, equally speaking this company is very vulnerable, interesting to know what percentage of sales each mixer contributes, one assumes standard tonic water the largest selling product, any hiccups and it'll fall ten per cent, no problem!

[wetdream] 06/4/2017 17:13

Mr hangman,
Perhaps the people buying this 'junk' are the same ones who bought Coca Cola all those years ago (after all, that's just brown fizzy water with sweetener plus a bit of mumbo-jumbo formula)... ;-)

[bamboo2] 06/4/2017 16:40

Looks like a new ath. 1600 tp confirmed on the INVH&S.

Currently, an eod close above approx 1580 confirms tp around 1800

[greek islander] 06/4/2017 15:29

New high of 1553 reached before a pull back. Share price looking stronger than ever.
More news inside the next 2-3 months about current trading should further inflate the share price The market needs reassurance that revenue continues to rise and then we shall be looking at £20.
wetdream, the Asos pe may look ridiculous but it has been double that and more in the past. It is the clear market leader with a huge loyal following and though I no longer hold it after cashing in at just under £40 more than a couple of years back. It has nearly always had the potential to be a £100 stock. Be interesting to see if FEVR which has more international revenue and therefore potential gets there before it.

[mr hangman] 06/4/2017 15:21

Who's buying this junk ?

[bamboo2] 06/4/2017 14:57

Price looks like it may confirm [eod close above 1523 required] a small INVH&S today, tp 1600

[wetdream] 05/4/2017 15:59

Some of the so-called sells today must be buys as the share price rises regardless.

[wetdream] 05/4/2017 08:50

Some hefty 'O' trades going through early each morning-equivalent to c.£1m each.

[martywidget] 05/4/2017 07:56

2016 Annual Report and Notice of Annual General Meeting

(76 page PDF):

[martywidget] 05/4/2017 07:33

Panic Investor 4 Apr '17 - 12:20 - 847 of 849
What spirit will be the next trend ?


Whatever it is, Fever-Tree will perhaps have it covered/topped up with with their mixers.

'Select your favourite spirit, and with Fever-Tree we've got it covered'

;)

[martywidget] 05/4/2017 06:59

...Star UK Small Cap investor Harry Nimmo...He retains his investment in drink maker Fevertree, commenting that despite the steep incline in the share price, the business, ‘continues to go from strength to strength.’




...Old Mutual UK Dynamic Equity ...Its largest investments include online fashion retailer Boohoo and luxury mixer drinks brand Fever-Tree – both of which have soared in the past few years..