Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[bellbottom] 24/2/2017 08:49

ATYM and CNR my only risers this week, so far.

[bellbottom] 24/2/2017 08:47

Hi telbap,

Looks like being a tough end to the week. My portfolio down around 4% this week.

[jjhbev] 23/2/2017 17:24

Seems to have been triggered by Mnuchkin's comments re growth

RIO, ANGLO, VED & even GLEN got slammed as well late pm.

[woodpeckers] 23/2/2017 17:13

All the miners fell at 3.30pmish, copper pull back.

[telbap] 23/2/2017 17:09

Bell bottom......just shows you how rocky that part of the world can be.

[onedb1] 23/2/2017 16:48

Came out of the gym to see the 5/6p drop !

Weird.

Brazil's Vale today came out with a note on how it sees iron ore price averaging $80 this year .

Woohoo ! I say as in H2 2016 they managed to increase the cash pile by $110m to $145m with average 2016 prices of $58.5 ! Today we are nearly $30 higher with an average just above $80.

Bring on the March update

[bellbottom] 23/2/2017 16:20

Another development to add to the mix. I understand that the courts originally refused any asset seizing back in November 2016. Seems that has since changed.
Mentions Autokraz and also Stakanov Wagon Works, which is/was in rebel held area.



Another version of events. Not a perfect translation by any means.

hxxps://ukrhotnews.com/2017/02/16/the-case-of-the-bank-finance-and-credit-the-court-arrested-the-property-of-the-enterprises-of-the-oligarch-zhevago/

May not have any bearing at all on FXPO but it does involve the major shareholder and Ukrainian MP, being one in the same.

[bellbottom] 23/2/2017 12:07

Sold of the remainder of my BCN holding this morning for a reasonable profit to increase my FXPO holding. I judge that I am now probably weighted too heavy in FXPO so will probably cease any regular trading and remain long with my total holding.
Very heavy on miners and oilies generally. May come to regret my choices.

Good luck all FXPO holders.

[bellbottom] 23/2/2017 11:59

Companies are already feeling the squeeze. On Monday, Ukraine's largest steel producer, Metinvest, said the blockade had forced it to halt production temporarily at one of its mills and several coal mines.



Not suggesting any impact on Ferrexpo/Poltava mines but just interested in the wider picture in Ukraine. I don't belive it is just about charts and trends. There are always other potential factors in the pricing of any share. Ignore at your peril.

And what do you reckon the chances of seeing this new feature film at your local Odeon?

[bellbottom] 23/2/2017 11:27

Ferrexpo London HQ completed in December 2016

[mreasygoing] 23/2/2017 10:48

Giles, you may be interested in my largest portfolio holding, ASA. It's an AIM miner but is a great turnaround story. Linked to the nickel price but has good diversification in other commodities too. Dyor. I'm expecting big things, but patience needed.

[onedb1] 23/2/2017 09:19

Factually though monthly EBITDA is looking really good so far this year . Which on top of the last reported cash balance has probably already sorted 2017 debt repayment hence started to significantly de risk the share .A few pennies up or down in what is a clear trend is just an irrelevant side show to what is the main theme . Ie FXPO is trending up in line with very strong iron ore price and debt repayment . We know that the average true range on FXPO can show quite some good daily swings .

[gilesgraves] 23/2/2017 08:46

Pretty disappointed with FXPO this week so far! Maybe we will retrace. If so Im buying more. Definitely accumulating this year. My 230 goal is based on our chat 7th and 8th Feb. To be honest its just a matter of time in my opinion for this to reach £3, £4, £5. But it depends how much patience we all have. There's plenty of other stocks in the sea if we get bored...

[onedb1] 22/2/2017 16:31

Only thing worth looking at is the chart and the trend . The rest is all opinion ;-)

[bellbottom] 22/2/2017 09:52

Do read through the last links I posted - fascinating situation if you step outside your attachment to FXPO.

[bellbottom] 22/2/2017 09:48

Hi Giles and anyone else who is interested,

Political sympathies or general politial opinions aside - when it comes to Ferrexpo and its interests, and ultimatley its share price, there is no doubt that Russia has had and is having a continuing impact. This may improve or get worse as the weeks, months and years progress. Poltava may be not be in an area of rebel or Russian backed rebel hands, but don't forget that Ferrexpo's owner has an interest in the Stakanov wagon works, (ie, he owns it) where his main company(FXPO) has previously purchased a large number of wagons. (A related party transaction under Listing Rules) This factory is in Stakanov, which is controlled by rebels and their Russian backers. Factory, last I heard, has closed down, hopefully on a temporary basis.



And you must appreciate that any and all industries that are closed, taken over by Russia or dismantled and moved to Russia, which has happened and may still be happening, has a 'trickle down' effect on the general economy of Ukraine and thence on the possible workings of Polktava mines and any of Zhevago's other associated businesses. Remember that Poltava has previously been effected by power cuts. And look at the current situation with coal/anthracite in Ukraine.



Have a look at this list of companies in Ukraine that have gone, disappeared or no longer functioning.



I know I'm repeating myself here, but no matter how you view the Crimea annexation by Russia or indeed Zhevago's behaviour in the whole debacle, he ultimately lost his shipyard in Crimea.

I worked in Ukraine over a number of years and have been dealing in this share for over 8 years. It doesn't necessarily give me a better understanding of the situation, but has made me more wary of the influences on its rise, fall and rise again. I am hoping that it will be a generally continued rise from now until we hit £2 and even more. But from painful experience, I know that this may not be the case. I am still long on this share and accumulating, but ready to dump the lot at any hint of very bad news.

Good luck to all shareholders. Lets keep pooling news and research to keep us in the know and hopefully ahead of the game.

[discodave4] 21/2/2017 19:45

GilesHopefully 162-165 but results (22nd March) may not let it get there!.......live in hope!, will see. No offence to holders, playing the ups and downs.DD

[telbap] 21/2/2017 18:12

GilesWhat do you base 230p on? I am 90% certain we will see 200p in the run up to results day, harva, unless they release absolutely mind blowingly fantabulous news I would expect an immediate sell-off back to mid 180s, before the normal tick up back to 200......would love to see 230, just don't believe it possible with the debt they still have to pay.

[gilesgraves] 21/2/2017 17:44

Blair's the Antichrist as far as Im concerned. Not just a war criminal! Crimea...i think Ukraine behaved appallingly. Our biased media give us half the facts and always paint Russia in the worst light. As I understand it FXPO is well away from any trouble spots. The dip in production levels was due to the concentration on higher quality pellets which Im pretty excited about. Roll on March 8th and 230p

[bellbottom] 21/2/2017 16:34

Hi Giles,

Hard to deny that Russia have been backing rebels in Eastern Ukraine. That's fact.
And they did annexe Crimea. And they are conducting cyber wars in the west.
I agree that there is a large bias in western media towards Putin and Russia, but that doesn't cancel out Russia's almost wholly negative involvment in Ukraine.
The old adage of 'keep your friends close but your enemies closer' could equally be used in terms of Trump and Putin. Not suggesting they are our enemies but where there is doubt with their intent, then it's preferable to keep them close.

Old fashioned warfare continues in many parts of the world, as we know, but the modern version is a dripping tap with a longer term goal and ultimatley a greater impact and influence.

If you don't think Putin is a bully then I have to fundamentally disagree with you - many senior politicians are inherently bullies. It goes with the job. It's not just the playground bully with the big fists, its the more subtle bully who is the wily old fox that has the greater longer term success.

There is much corruption in the world. It's only a matter of degree. I would suggest both Russia and Ukraine have a higher degree than is acceptable.

And there are many who have labelled Blair a war criminal - depends on how you define war criminal of course.

But getting back to the relevance in relation to FXPO. Anything that may have an impact on share value, I want to be aware of. And Russia has the potential to be one of those areas of impact. It's already happened and could happen again.

[gilesgraves] 21/2/2017 15:59

I don't see Putin as a bully. In the Uk I think we have a cultural bias against Russia. We think of Putin as some kind of Goldfinger Bond Baddie. We wouldn't call Tony Blair a war criminal for invading Iraq with zero evidence of WMD, intent only on assisting the US with control of Oil there. But it is often said Putin is a war criminal for his actions, especially in eastern europe and syria. This idea of the world against Russia is drivvel. Yes there are huge cultural differences and yes Russia in many respects is developing especially in terms of diplomacy. But I don't see them as the enemy at all. Its the mantra of the past. Politicians especially who stick to that kind of rhetoric in order to win votes are the problem. Russia has as much right to equality as anyone else.

[bellbottom] 21/2/2017 15:43

A few few good articles on current and ongoing situation in Ukraine, and the possible longer term influence and goals of Putin's Russia.









Whilst FXPO is a major part of my portfolio and increasingly so, I do have little niggles as to the wider influence on Ukraine and it's industries, by the Putin regime. It's a war on all fronts. Crucial how Trump and EU deals with Putin and his bully boy tactics.

[bellbottom] 21/2/2017 15:29

Missed this one....

[bellbottom] 21/2/2017 15:20

Apologies if this has been posted before.