Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[bellbottom] 27/2/2017 14:50

Hi DD,

Yes, I think you are right about production figures. I lazily based it on FXPO's own
production update from end 2014.



As to the Govt stepping in to resolve the issues. I do think there is a reluctance to use any kind of force after what happened at The Maidan.

I notice the great FXPO pendulum has swung back into the blue now.

[onedb1] 27/2/2017 14:42

Iron ore is looking great chaps . We have seen all these dips bought and seeing it again . As a trend there aren't that many clearer pointers than this one . I have been posting about this since the 70p levels . Charts don't get better than this . I equally suggest looking at the iron ore chart that the IC's Nicole Elliot has prepared . Very bullish . All the best from a rainy grey Monday in London ;-)

[discodave4] 27/2/2017 14:34

It's my understanding that FXPO's production actually increased in 2014 despite the conflict with Russia.The CEO and major shareholder has been a Ukrainian parliamentarian for over 18 years......so don't suppose he will not be just sitting back, the Government will step in and resolve the issues IMO.The usual morning shenanigans despite iron ore in China going up over 4% last night.DD

[bellbottom] 27/2/2017 13:19

Sorry - of course, Ukraine already declared a state of emergency over the coal shortage.

[bellbottom] 27/2/2017 13:13

Do we think that the ongoing Donbass blockade is having an impact on share price? I remember in late 2014 that FXPO pellet production fell due to low coal stocks and hence reduced power availability. It had a direct effect on production.
I am not sure of the latest news on this front, but I believe Ukraine have refused electricty directly from Russia and if they seek coal supplies from other sources, this would take longer than the projected 20-40 days of supplies remaining.
If action is not taken soon, they will have no choice but to instigate emergency procedures and reduce availability of power.
This has been an ongoing problem since at least 2014 and has come to a head because of the blockade.
The following text taken from The Ukrainian Metal (metalukraine.com) earlier today. This relates to a non Ferrexpo related metals company in Ukraine.

"The Donbass blockade could result in the Kramatorsk Ferroalloys Works shutting down, as the coking coal from the occupied Gorlovka and Alchevsk could not reach the plant."

“We have absolutely no coke left”, the company blast furnace shop director Alexander Shikhov said.

If the blast furnace is shut down, the whole plant will be closed as well.

Kramatorsk Ferroalloys Works exports to Europe and the USA.

[telbap] 27/2/2017 12:51

We are almost at the 30poi the retrace level (150p) if we follow the same pattern as all times before we will have enough a false rally, maybe upto 165 ish, then fall back over 7 days, to hit our 150p support point. Then, a strong rally upto 180, and then onto our next new high around 200p. Then wash, rinse, repeat and we start again. As long as the geopolitical situation does not change, then we should be ok.

[discodave4] 25/2/2017 11:38

Chinese lady say: cannot make an omelette without breaking eggs.

[telbap] 25/2/2017 09:52

Glass half full or half empty?

[pbutterworth1] 25/2/2017 09:04

......or save the dog and just drink water that night, waiting for the new hens eggs the following day....

[mreasygoing] 24/2/2017 20:29

Chinese lady says "Don't put all eggs in one basket" as she drops it and has to eat her dog instead that night.

[gilesgraves] 24/2/2017 19:30

Well done everyone. Tough couple of days but 159 was my final buy. Holding now and looking for 230.

[fruitninja84] 24/2/2017 15:42

I got 157, not quite the bottom but am happy for now. I did get the bottom of KAZ and got 4 fills. 493 498 501 and 522. Greedy so heres hoping I don't end up loosing my shirt.

[discodave4] 24/2/2017 15:37

In at 158......always miss the bottom, bloody day job!.DD

[bellbottom] 24/2/2017 15:11

A whole load a shakin' a whole load a shakin' going' on! (sung very badly)
All my metals down today so no FXPO specifics, which is a relief.

[mreasygoing] 24/2/2017 13:59

Tracking the mining index beautifully. Where that goes this will follow.

[discodave4] 24/2/2017 13:28

May as well wait and see if 154.7 breaks now, next 147.8.........too greedy I thinks!.DD

[pbutterworth1] 24/2/2017 13:23

Good luck giles :-) i am already full on fxpo

[onedb1] 24/2/2017 12:37

Not seeing the fuss here iron prices are flying . Looks like the usual well orchestrated bb pump and dump in reverse . Seems to work quite too easily . All one needs and should do is stick to the official data providers. High after high and a known EBITDA estimate per month are facts .

[bellbottom] 24/2/2017 11:05

Not a good week so far. PMO being pushed further downwards. Sorry if this is off topic but the PMO thread/forum seems to have deteriorated somewhat.
Got to keep reminding myself - long term, long term, long term.......

[bellbottom] 24/2/2017 11:00

Down now about 4.5% on the week's high and most of the drop occurring late afternoon yesterday and then continuing today. Buying opportunity or falling knife? Makes no difference to my strategy as I am fully invested and not willing to increase risk level.
4.5% is still a relatively small drop. I just hope there is not some brown stuff on its way, flying through the air on a collision course with those fan blades!!

[gilesgraves] 24/2/2017 10:14

This is completely the opposite result to the week I expected. But happily we are here at 159 so this is my target buying point to add

[bellbottom] 24/2/2017 09:58

Or could also be due to the major shareholder having some of his assets seized by the courts? The Governor of the Nat Bank of Ukraine has been pushing for this to happen for a while. Money moved offshore, figures quoted on the net as 440 squillion dollars.
Can't find much in the way of details about the recent seizure of assets. Only the two weblinks.
I do hope its the blockade reason rather than the latter scenario. I suspect that would be easier to resolve and have less of an impact on Ferrexpo's share price.

[pbutterworth1] 24/2/2017 09:31

The share price blip here may be due to ongoing steel production downturn as a result of coal blockades. As steel is very important to the Ukrainian economy I expect the govt to do something about it. Fundamentals remain very good and I am sitting tight on my large FXPO pile for now. GLA DYOR

[bellbottom] 24/2/2017 08:49

ATYM and CNR my only risers this week, so far.

[bellbottom] 24/2/2017 08:47

Hi telbap,

Looks like being a tough end to the week. My portfolio down around 4% this week.