Bp Share Discussion Threads

[nicebut] 26/6/2017 16:39

I wonder if Arconic will get taken to the cleaners by the UK Gov and agencies, like BP did by the US Gov?

I`m betting not.

[bracke] 26/6/2017 10:22

Good day Penycae

"and I put her into PFC just before the SFO became involved."
=============================================================

Oh dear!! So you'll be talking of 'jam tomorrow' sort of.

As it happens I have bought a few myself....hope springs eternal.

[sicker] 23/6/2017 14:54

BP div paid to-day, is Mrs. P. off on a spending spree :-)

[penycae] 23/6/2017 14:47

Afternoon Opto.

Yes, Mrs P. still holding here, most of her stocks are held for the divis. She's added a few EZJ to her holdings recently, and I put her into PFC just before the SFO became involved. Technicals looked fine there (they still do) but beware the black swan event.

[optomistic] 23/6/2017 10:28

Morning Penycae,
If your purchase has been sanctioned by the monkey...then all should be well :-))
Mrs Penycae still holding the paper?

[penycae] 23/6/2017 09:37

Morning all.

Just bought a few of these on my sb account. Gives me something to talk about with my psychiatrist other than my holding in PFC.

Trade well and prosper Earthlings........

[optomistic] 22/6/2017 14:44

All the recent gaps filled technically...should be only one way to go from here ^^

[prambigear] 22/6/2017 13:56

... but he presumably DOES pay for his own accommodation, food and expenses, and probably even pays some tax.

[uncle_sam] 21/6/2017 19:28

Hellscream, after long research (about 10 seconds on google), I've got just the place for you, : North Korea -
hxxps://www.thetoptens.com/north-korea/

Please, for all our sakes, just go. GO. Anywhere.

Heck, I will personally pay your immigration fees, assuming you actually go ... That will be my boy scout deed of the day ...

The value of your contribution on this website, let alone in this culture and country, is beyond limited, it is nil.

[smurfy2001] 21/6/2017 08:07

Buy 6500 @ 458.

Will sell over 469 or take divis on the way.

[smurfy2001] 20/6/2017 19:40

Didn't hit my buy target so didn't buy oh well. Hope it goes further down in the morning ;)

[optomistic] 20/6/2017 19:16

Looks like my 480 is going to take a little longer :-/

[smurfy2001] 20/6/2017 14:50

I'm sniffing a trade here ;@)

[alphorn] 20/6/2017 12:27

Downward pressure on oil prices.

[optomistic] 20/6/2017 08:46

480 looking a strong possibility short term.

[smurfy2001] 19/6/2017 08:03

Sold 5200 @ 469.5. Lovely.

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smurfy2001 15 Jun '17 - 12:50 - 89160 of 89164 1 1 Edit
Bought 5200 @ 4.56

Will sell over 470p and take divis on the way if needed.

[ianood] 18/6/2017 08:26

Steve73 - my thoughts entirely, I thought I had missed something. To my mind, as a producer, forward prices should be positive otherwise you are in deep doodoo!

[steve73] 18/6/2017 03:07

???..^^.

I'm not sure I agree with the conclusions of the above article.

As a producer I'd rather see contango in the market than backwardation. At least this is what I've always been told throughout a 30 year career in the oil business.

Contango - with future prices increasing is good, although if too high it encourages storing of supplies which ties up working capital - still, better that than flooding the market and dropping immediate prices further.

Backwardation, with falling prices is the nightmare scenario, where anything in storage is dropping in value, although it's a situation that rarely persists for long, unless it's indicative of a significant oversupply such as in late 90's and mid teens.

[grupo guitarlumber] 17/6/2017 11:26

The Forward Curve for Oil Prices Suddenly Looks Awful for OPEC
by Alex Longley
16 June 2017, 13:49 CEST

Brent, WTI trade in full contango as consumers fix forward
Bearish U.S. stockpile data, gloomy IEA report don’t help

As if a mini-collapse in oil prices wasn’t bad enough for OPEC, the pattern in which futures contracts are trading years from now has flipped into the worst possible structure for the exporter group.

Brent and West Texas Intermediate crudes, down almost 15 percent since late May, are both trading in contango, where forward prices get higher all the way into the next decade. While it’s a structure that normally denotes weak demand for spot cargoes, the price pattern could also be bad news for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as it can sometimes tempt producers outside the group to lock in output for future years.

Saudi Arabia is among nations that have been saying for months that a re-balancing is under way in the oil market after OPEC and other producing nations agreed late last year to cut production. That view was undermined in recent weeks by data showing that combined stockpiles of crude and fuels in the U.S., still the biggest consumer, swelled by 22 million barrels. The International Energy Agency in Paris suggested Wednesday that there’s little sign 2018 will be much better.

“It’s not good news for OPEC,” said Warren Patterson, commodity strategist at ING Bank NV. “Nothing this week has been particularly bullish. Non-OPEC supply is going to be stronger than demand growth, suggesting OPEC are possibly going to have to make even more cuts or extend them.”
Backwardation Banished

Until last week, the forward curves for Brent and WTI had partly been trading in backwardation, meaning some prices were lower further in the future. That flipped into full contango last week, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration unexpectedly said crude inventories rose 3.3 million barrels. The structure became even more entrenched on Wednesday when the IEA said non-OPEC producers led by shale will add barrels more quickly than any expansion in global consumption.

Brent time-spreads between December 2017 and 2018, and then 2018 to 2019, are trading in the deepest contangos since mid-November, the most bearish structure since before OPEC agreed to cut output.
OPEC Disconnect

“OPEC’s decision to merely extend production cuts showed a disconnected cartel, which was not on the ‘market pulse’,” said Thibaut Remoundos, founder of Commodities Trading Corporation Ltd. The increase in later-dated futures has been driven by a surge of activity from consumers such as shipping companies and airlines, while bullish bets on the market’s structure have been unwound, Remoundos said.

READ: How OPEC’s best measure of success is looking less promising

Consumers have been quick to lock in cheap future supplies as crude prices have dropped below $50. Citigroup Inc. analysts including Daoyuan Zhou wrote in a report on Friday that structural changes in the options market are likely a reflection of consumer activity being stepped up. Producers may hedge 1.3 billion barrels of next year’s crude supply in the second half of this year, BofA Merrill Lynch analysts wrote.

The weakness of crude timespreads has outpaced the declines in the nearest prices. That’s a sign that market concerns about a lingering supply glut have extended beyond the short-term into later years. On Thursday, WTI for December 2019 was as much as $1.37 cheaper than the same contract for December 2020, just 10 cents away from its most bearish level in a year.


Some of the world’s biggest banks have also grown increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for crude prices into next year. Morgan Stanley said recently that OPEC will need to extend cuts for the whole of 2018 if it wants to keep the market in balance. Meanwhile, JPMorgan slashed its forecast for next year by $10, anticipating “a substantial build in inventories” as U.S. shale producers ramp up output. Even if crude stockpiles do eventually fall, financially traded oil may still struggle to reflect it, said BofA Merrill Lynch.

“There were all those expectations that inventories would go down and that would lead to a tighter market this year and in following years,” Olivier Jakob, managing director of consultancy Petromatrix GmbH, said by phone. “Right now it has been delayed and the expectations of a re-balancing are starting to evaporate.”

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal

[grupo guitarlumber] 17/6/2017 11:25

cheers pug

[pugugly] 17/6/2017 11:07

The Forward Curve for Oil Prices Suddenly Looks Awful for OPEC,
Brent, WTI trade in full contango as consumers fix forward
Bearish U.S. stockpile data, gloomy IEA report don’t help
(Message received from full article oil prices lower for longer. Not good news)