|I was quite surprised to see that, even if we attend the meeting (which I will probably do as I got £20 return tickets on easyjet from Stansted) (anybody want to share car parking and fuel?) We have to submit votes beforehand. Does this mean that the Board might know the outcome before the meeting or are the votes withheld from them until they open a magic envelope on the day ( I would like to think the latter, but somehow I doubt it!) If nobody knows the answer I will do some digging and give an update.|
|I think also if coc win you can forget about Bomono. They may say they will do a cost analysis but without any cam.gov approval I expect them to waste no time pursuing a dead duck. Someone else however, maybe new age, will take it up later if it has any value at all. Coc have made it clear that Etinde is their target and prize. The asset will be sold at a cost that returns them value, and only them, the humble pi will be of no consequence. Anyone who thinks anything else, in my opinion is delusional. I've been here since 2012 and don't want it to end up like this but I have grave concerns either way.|
|I have no clue, your missing my point, I am fully aware of what they have said, what I am questioning is why they state the returning of surplus cash. We are not awash with cash, every penny we have could easily be spent on taking etinde forward. There will be no spare cash and whatever they return will be peanuts . My point is people see RETURN OF CASH and vote accordingly. There is no way cash should be returned to investors in my opinion, yes limit admin costs but keep it in the company to place us in a strong position. All funds held will be taken into account with etinde value to obtain a final share price without funds you are in a much weaker bargaining position...that is my point.|
I don't think Log is saying it's "false" data, what he seems to be saying, to me at least, is that the presentation is a marketing document and should be taken as such i.e. with a huge pinch of salt - think MPG on a car here, when was the last time (as in when have you ever!) got the mileage quoted in the brochure?. Without a CPR or an RNS with some real metrics, not just one headline number, then the data is meaningless.
The wells may well have produced at 5-6mmscfd for an hour or so and then fell of a cliff, we don't know until a "proper" announcement is made and until that time, the data should be treated accordingly. I've seen you tout these numbers on a couple of boards and, as log says, they are not worth the pixels used to display them, without a CPR.
Just remember KH comment on the Sapele 2RNS:
"Bowleven is delighted to announce its first oil flow test in the Douala Basin, offshore Cameroon, at Sapele-1ST. The flow rates produced at Sapele-1ST are believed to be commercial. These are highly encouraging, particularly so given that better sand development was encountered in the original Sapele-1 well at the equivalent level, with good indications of comparability between the two. Whilst further appraisal is required to fully understand the resource potential, we are encouraged by the result and the likelihood of a commercial development at Sapele given the shallow water depths. Our acreage in Cameroon shows increasing potential as we focus on our dual strategy of targeting high impact exploration potential in the Douala Basin and converting resources to reserves."
I see he used the "believed" woolly-word in the above quote but the point being made is exactly what Log has been trying to get through to you, without the CPR, it's all just words . . . . .
|Consider this scenario...........
Currently there are 7 Directors making up the BOD of Bowleven.
COC have proposed resolutions to get rid of 6 of the BOD, leaving only David Clarkson remaining from the current BOD.
Why has he been excluded from the chop !!
Is he possibly to become a COC man ??
To maintain any form of stability then the proposed COC Directors (+/- D Clarkson ?? ) will need to be in the minority on any new BOD.
Therefore to this end there needs to be sufficient current Directors retained on the BOD to be in the majority, thereby preventing COC having full control and carte blanche as to what happens to our assets.
I am hopeful of a compromise solution to this fiasco...........in the best interests of all shareholders and the future outcome of the company|
|Simon Thompson's IC update, courtesy of AFFs on III
conclusion from ST's article published today:
"In the circumstances, I can't recommend voting in favour of COC's resolutions. In fact, I believe the shareholder would be better off launching a formal offer for Bowleven pitched at a level that takes into full account the chunky cash pile, and a reasonable proportion of the value in the two main assets. Analyst Daniel Slater at brokerage Arden Partners has a target price of 50p a share based on a core net asset value (NAV) of 62p a share, and a total risked NAV of 96p a share. A take-out level of that order would deliver a satisfactory bid premium, while at the same time leaving Crown Ocean Capital with further investment upside. I would therefore reject the proposals (deadline for receipt of proxy forms is 11am on Friday, 10 March), albeit I feel that Bowleven is now in play and its days as a listed entity could well be numbered.
Needless to say, having included Bowleven's shares in my 2016 Bargain Shares portfolio at 18.9p, and again at 27.75p in this year's portfolio, I maintain my buy recommendation at 33p."|
|When Malcy said "All those unexplained delays on Etinde by NewAge", it brought back some memories.
The court case with NewAge was about should NewAge be present at Bowleven's meetings with Cameroonian Government. At the time we were the operator with 75%, NewAge 25%, acquired from Vitol. NewAge won the court case so they were allowed to be at the meetings.
We were seeking the approval of the EEAA, the development plan was to supply the Ferrostaal fertiliser plant and initial gas offtake and LNG. We had a strategic alliance agreement with Petrofac that Petrofac will finance the development upto $500m, plus $50m at FID. Petrofac will be taking all the risk.
But this dragged on and on, we just could not get the EEAA.
Then the farm out, then the EEAA approval. It was quite obvious to me NewAge was pulling the strings. Bending CamGov's ear. If the EEAA was approved by CamGov right away, we didn't have to farm out at all.
Right after the farm out, the "Hart discount" started by you know who.
Now this fall out between NewAge and CamGov over FLNG. I think CamGov's patient is wearing a bit thin with NewAge. This EG offtake solution was initiated by KH and fully supported by CamGov. Let's see what excuse NewAge will come up with this time.|
|no log, no trap or games with me.
I am just trying to illustrate that they have presented *some* data on Bomomo which would, using some basic sums, lead to the conclusion that *if* the bureaucratic parts of the project are finalized *should* yield a reasonable, although not a large as we hoped, return.
You seem to be saying they are presenting false data, which i take issue with.
As for if it "works out" or not, as you put it. well thats your call, but i am just presenting the geology/engineering as far as we know.
I repeat, they have not presented any project engineering on Bomono. Nor a CPR. So these numbers are as much a guess as anything and nothing is written until its in the BLVN bank.|
|Winnet I am interested on your view regarding Entinde and what was said at the PI meeting in London. I have taken from KH's comments that an off take solution is high on the JV's agenda rather than appraisal wells at this moment in time - that is why the backstop date of 2020 and $40m is being highlighted surely. EG is indicated as a real possibility and a new positive from that meeting, with potential significant savings on capex and timelines. I am asking genuinely what do BLVN BOD bring to the JV with a minority 20% at this point in time as I assume New Age and Lukoil have greater technical and skill base available to them. It will be 2 years next month since completion on the Lukoil transaction - our 20% holding during this time indicates we have had marginal real input as we have been eager to initiate the appraisal wells and these look way off - the majority holders seem to have a different agenda. I am unsure if anything tangible in the last 2 years has been achieved with Entinde and with regard to 2 appraisal wells definitely not.|
|Absolutely agree Log...either the project pays for them or they don't need to be there|
|@winnet you seem to want to trap me into saying something. I've no idea if the data presented in that presentation if accurate or not. How could I know? I certainly don't trust it to turn out as presented. That's because experience has shown me that numbers in BLVN presentations seldom work out as presented and are hugely optimistic (not uncommon in AIM O&G I might add). I've given examples of that.
Perhaps more importantly why isn't there a formal CPR to support them? The absence of this speaks volumes to me.
@hernando2 he can do all the monitoring he wants but Lukoil and NA can just ignore him. I don't want to be paying for his crew to make the tea for New Age and Lukoil at their meetings (assuming they get an invite).|
|log - I'm only going round in circles because you haven't answered my question.
*Is the data they've presented about Bomono is inaccurate?* (In you opinion) YES/NO
I can infer from your posts that you think it is inaccurate, and the BOD are not to be trusted?|
|Old KH will say he needs people to monitor and discuss developments with Lukoil and they will produce nice presentations outlining hw they are alongside them Etc etc. And i can understand that but, the point is that they add no value to the project and if they did add value then they should be fee charging to the project.|
|@winnet I think I've made it clear. Anything in a presentation not supported in an RNS is a pure guesstimate and past experience has shown them to be highly optimistic.
I think I've said enough now. You are going round in circles. I see you have now said again that they should retain good people to develop Etinde. People keep telling you that they are non-operator in Etinde. Lukoil and NA call the shots. Paying salaries to work on Etinde is pointless but it doesn't seem to sink in.
|log - so you are not suggesting the data they've presented avbout Bomono is inaccurate?
The company have made no revenue predictions as to project economics as yet, to my knowledge. I suspect they are getting stuff signed off before they start talking about it.
My argument rests log, on keeping good people on board to develop both Etinde and Bomono effectively.
I agree a CPR would be useful!|
|Generally speaking I'm not going to believe anything not in an RNS. Furthermore I'm going to read a lot into what's not being said and why. KH and crew are clearly up against it now. If they could show any reason why they should be kept in the job they would. What better way than to dangle a big whopping Bomono carrot in front of shareholders and tell them they are the guys to get it over the line. They've not been able to do that at all. We've seen no CPR and worse we are told a farm out is pending.
I'm no O&G expert but people here who are and others I trust tell me you can't have a farm-out without a CPR. It just can't happen because the buyer doesn't know what they are buying. Why hide the CPR? There is no reason to do so if it supports the boards claim that they are needed to bring that carrot home.
So really your argument rests on retaining the BoD for Bomono and not much else but the BoD won't even tell us why Bomono is worth sticking around for!|
|Whooooaaaa hold on a moment. I said their presentations were very unreliable as a way to predict future asset values. I gave an example. That's not calling anyone a liar. For all I know KH believed Etinde to be worth $600m but could only get $250m (including carry and deferred payments) when he went to sell it. The same fiasco happened on other blocks I think.
KH may well believe what he wrote in the Bomono presentation. I'm just saying its not a good idea to trust it from past experience.
In any case if you are right then happy days. CoC may not know much about O&G but they can hire people that do and retain people at BLVN who do. They'll soon find out what its worth and I see no reason why they'd sell it on the cheap because they don't know it's value themselves.|
|I'm interested Log - are you refuting the numbers the company have supplied, or suggesting they don't have the ability to deliver the project.
Two different things...|
|Log - I'm sorry, but just refuting what little data has been published about Bomono is a bit silly. Calling them deceitful and suggesting they are lying in their presentations, which is what you are doing, is not something I would expect from you.
The facts are they have said it will produce 5-6 MMSCFD.
They have also said they have a tentative agreement at between 9 and 16 MMBTU.
Those are the facts.
It also makes sense, because VOG have Bassa 20MW and Logbaba 30MW, which have a fixed price of net $9/mmbtu. These aren't fantasy numbers!|
|Well said Log...|
|@winnet I'm afraid an investor presentation is pretty much worthless. I don't believe the numbers in them and for good reason. I could dig one out before 40% of Etinde was sold for $250m where Kevin said he thought Etinde was worth $1bn and that was the net figure for their 60%. I've been at presentations where he's stated it point blank to anyone as well as putting it in presentations. A few months later he sold 40% of it for $250m some of which was carry which is less than half what he himself claimed it was worth.
I can't think of a single time when they presented a fact in a presentation about the value of something that has come anywhere near coming true.
If Bomono was worth that sort of money he'd be shouting it from the rooftops and publishing a CPR to show what a good job he and his team have done there.
Let's assume for the sake of argument these numbers do stack up. CoC can keep the key employees needed to get it to production if they choose to. What is stopping them? The idea that it needs Hart and the others to get it to work is ludicrous.|
|WTF is he doing reading a bulletin board...??
probably trying to get feel for his PI's feelings will be his excuse|
|IMO BoD can't be trusted with the cash, winnet wake up.
KH we know you are reading this bb, show some honour your time is up, resign or be pushed, you are yesterdays man.|