Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[buy_more] 06/4/2021 18:15

...well obviously we still need to work on that communication part. and the part where no one asked for anything, only for collaboration irritates me as well a bit. :)

[buy_more] 06/4/2021 18:08

We just need patience as per their words below. Patience. hTtp://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62679 Vladimir Putin: What are the depths there? Vagit Alekperov: About 25 metres, but we can work at 800 metres or even 1,200 in West Africa. I would like to note the unique window of opportunity that opened up after the summit in Sochi you held with African countries. In fact, we are beginning to actively work in West Africa: we have started working in three countries and another four have offered to launch joint work. This is unprecedented. This summit gave an impetus to Russian companies to work in one of the most promising markets: West Africa. Vladimir Putin: I really liked our African colleagues’ attitude. This was a surprise: no one asked for anything, only for collaboration. Vagit Alekperov: We can feel it. It would be good to repeat it after some time, because this is such a great support for us, Mr President. Today, it is not just a declaration but these are real projects: in the Republic of the Congo, in Ghana, we are now looking at a number of other countries, and Cameroon today. They know us, they want to work with us, and they want to communicate with us.

[welshki] 06/4/2021 09:54

I asked this very question on the other thread. I don't know if having that 15p divi means 45p becomes 30p, it may well but it may not, doesn't seem to be any definitive guidance on that. At 5p even 30p seems miles away, let alone 45p or 65p/80p.......but this is AIM so who knows........

[gark] 06/4/2021 09:43

That was before the special divi so assume that is 30p to 65p now. Be happy with that range :)

[buy_more] 06/4/2021 09:17

it would be interesting to ask eli about the "btip" - bowleven transformation incentive plan - where it is written that the share price has to be between 45p and 80p in order to aqcuire 10M shares at nil cost. see post 19099

[dealy] 02/4/2021 12:01

Bowleven currently valued at 5m GBP enterprise value. Option value alone must be a multiple of that

[gark] 02/4/2021 11:01

VOG up over 15% on that and puts Etinde at the centre of has driven power in Cameroon. Looking good despite the delay IMO.

[warbaby43] 02/4/2021 10:34

With a hat tip to happy sparrow over at LSE, this from VOG's Update RNS yesterday: "New Age Letter of Intent ("LoI"). The LoI with New Age, which was originally announced on 5 February 2020, expired on 31 March 2021. In consultation with SNH, GDC and New Age agreed to let the LoI lapse and expedite discussions with SNH on the way forward on the project in line with the Gas Code of Cameroon and the Country's Gas Master Plan. As part of the process, GDC has offered to offtake up to 25 MMscf/d from Etinde, subject to a number of conditions. The whole project still remains conditional upon securing Final Investment Decision ("FID") on the upstream project and award of an Independent Power Producer licence among other things. Recent public statements suggest that the Etinde partners are now likely to secure FID in 2022, before which they will need to renew their Exclusive Exploitation Agreement ("EEA") and seek approval for a revised development plan."

[gark] 31/3/2021 11:55

So 25-50p a range but weighted to the lower end. Would be nice to get out of this eventually.

[warbaby43] 31/3/2021 11:24

Back to good old risk and reward, gark, and I agree that there are good solid reasons that it should all come together but it will just take more time than could ever have been envisaged pre Covid When it does, a sale to Lukoil, NA or A N Other still most likely, but at what price and here we may differ. I can't see the $229m that your 50p per share would equate to at $1.37, but $100m would be only $1.50 per boe with the $25m FID factored in and that can very easily be envisaged. Similarly, $125m could also easily be on and perhaps even $150m, especially if, the post FEED, seismic reprocessing and FDP, pre FID audit returns BLVN's 20% stake to c60m boe - not an unrealistic expectation. Near shore, shallow water Etinde, with its gas and liquids, has a lot going for it not least the relatively low cost of development, especially when compared with the likes of of the deep water Senegal asset Lukoil tried to buy from Cairn for $400m before Woodside stepped in and pre-empted them - see pages 14-16: Https://www.cairnenergy.com/media/2559/investor-presentation-march-2020-final.pdf

[welshki] 31/3/2021 11:02

Sorry Dealy I should be more specific with my answer - Etinde will go into production, but BLVN taking their part into production, thats the slim to none chance

[welshki] 31/3/2021 09:12

Hi Dealy.......I'd say that chance is slim to none. As we are no doubt all aware COC by their very nature aren't likely to want to tie their large investment down forever and a day, the time needed and risk associated with taking this all the way through to production, in my opinion, isn't their business model. Plus there is the dividend payout of 15p, it would seem odd to hand out all that cash knowing the large amount of money they would need to go into production. With FID would come the possibility of raising money via debt but it just doesn't seem the most logical approach. I think Etinde and by extension BLVN is going to be sold shortly after FID to either Lukoil or New Age. The price, who knows, I am just glad KH is not negotiating that for us anymore! The most interesting factor for me is the CEOs 10,000,000 options which only trigger at 45p. Seems a crazy price point considering the share price now but they set it knowing all that we know now......just wonder does that 45p include the 15p divi so a sale could happen at 30p and options still trigger, or does a sale need to be at 45p no matter what.......food for thought

[buy_more] 31/3/2021 09:04

ferrostaal didn't realize their project in cameroon because of a too high gas price in cameroon. and still after many years the jvp partners are in discussions about the very same topic with snh. let's see what the next couple of months will bring.

[dealy] 30/3/2021 22:28

Great summary welshki. What are your thoughts on the probability of Etinde going into production?

[welshki] 30/3/2021 18:15

Dealy pay no attention to winnet he is a very bitter ex-shareholder, with zero class, that lost the vast majority of his investment here. An individual that was promoting BLVN at way over 200p and worshipping the ground Kevin hart walked despite the multitude of his failings, some the product of incompetence, others complete lack of fiduciary responsibility and some, I have heard on the grape vine, down to corruption. Either way winnet didn't bat an eye lid, or utter a single word of criticism throughout the entirety of KHs utterly shambolic reign here. Winnet has always said COC will run off with all of BLVNs cash (despite never providing a single shred of reason or logic) and even now when they paid out 15p to ALL shareholders, he is still not willing to accept reality and admit that COC are far better custodians than KH was, and ever could be. Winnets opinion is and always has been derived from either stupidity or dishonesty. Always whinging that COC "stole" this company, despite a completely legal and above board takeover that was allowed to happen due to KHs dismal performance. Fact is KH put the company in its woeful position way before COC arrived. COC have not done a single thing illegal, underhanded or irresponsible during their tenure and its desperately embarrassing winnet still can't accept that and still turns up like a sad little man when ever the share price drops.

[dealy] 30/3/2021 17:49

The market doesn't have a memory. It doesn't care about people who overpaid in the past (or sold too early in the inverse case). I only care about how much the shares can reach in the future.

[gark] 30/3/2021 17:47

Just out of interest, if all plays out (which I think the balance of probability would suggest) where do you think this ends up price wise?

[winnet] 30/3/2021 17:36

dealy - but they didn't acquire their shares at 4 quid did they? That was always the misalignment here. COC came on board as asset strippers with no intention of developing the bsuiness. Great, i suppose if you want to roll the dice at 4p, but for most LTH who a firmly in the red, not so great!

[warbaby43] 30/3/2021 17:10

Our Eli being Our Eli who could never be accused of the spinning and glossing so beloved of his small oilie peers. Instead, a round, unvarnished tale he again tells and a praiseworthily full one as well. Given it's a toss up which moves at the most sub glacial speed, the O&G industry or W African governments, no surprise that things are taking so long especially with Covid precluding face to face meetings and when there are so many parties involved. That said, any threat of licence removal appears to be now dead and it looks distinctly possible that the pre-FID reserves and resources audit will, this time, throw up an asset increase. Difficult, too, to see why an agreement with SNH on an acceptable development would not be reached given that a win for the JVP is very much a big win for them and for Cameroon. If the global equilibrium is restored in the coming months, that would surely help as would, even more, should a Chinese/Russian fertiliser manufacturer hove into view.

[dealy] 30/3/2021 15:32

They own 100m shares and have the same incentive as other shareholders to see the stock go up. The dividend was received by all. There is still a chance that on of the JV partners buys Bowleven to simply things going forward. 10p per share is still a double from here in a pretty much worst case scenario

[dealy] 30/3/2021 15:08

or they will wake up and not let this project die. Still possible

[winnet] 30/3/2021 14:59

Hello friends, Just popping back in to see if any of the old COC "crew" are still so keen on their leader. I doubt it. Major life lesson for the COC rampers here. Just be careful what you wish for. It could end at 4.5p... I warned many fellow holders that these guys would just shell the company, take their money out and shareholders would be left with nothing. Wonder how this will all end. My guess is the only deal good old Eli wants to do is one which makes him money. Terrible governance here...

[wallywoo] 30/3/2021 14:35

You are deeply misunderstanding African culture. They will all be squabbling about who should be receiving personal back handers.Whether Cameroon benefits or not is inconsequential.