Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[dealy] 03/2/2023 10:14

micro peanuts trades. 500k shares is only 7k at the mid price

[ham74] 03/2/2023 09:51

The quoted bid keeps slipping, but the offer and prices paid do not go down much, so basically the bid offer spread is widening. Why is this?

[gark] 03/2/2023 09:48

I agree, shame is they have an asset that is worth something but can't seem to get anywhere with it.

[dealy] 03/2/2023 09:22

company has a Dragon's Den valuation which is usually associated with companies that have nothing except an idea

[gark] 03/2/2023 09:16

Looks like we are seeing a slow death here. Depressing.

[nufckk] 24/1/2023 16:29

The thing about Eli (the Oracle of Oz) getting the boot is his termination pay off of a years salary. Unless of course they can prove Gross Misconduct which so far as I know doesn't include complete incompetence.
So there he sits, hanging onto his grossly overpaid position while everyone else (shareholders, employees) barring the equally overpaid non exec suffer from his complete lack of foresight.
They really do inhabit a different world to normal human beings, who had they performed as abysmally as him would have crawled under a rock in shame a long time ago

[warbaby43] 24/1/2023 15:02

Yeah, someone has been selling down today and over recent weeks at 100k per day - Chahin selling out prior to his departure?

No fundraising should be necessary in H1 and in any event hopefully it will be delayed until the constitution of the new JVP has been formalized.

In that regard and going back to the Offshore Technology figures and forecasts at 19417 then if they are correct (and their format and detail would appear to indicate that they are authoritative) then come 2025 the RDR fields will be down to producing just 7.52 bpd for Perenco and 20.61 bpd for SNH.

Similarly at Sanaga South following its nosedive in 2026 Perenco will be down to 3.94 boepd and SNH to 3.06 boepd.

As always, corrections to my calculations are most welcome but if anywhere near right then they indicate just how important an Etinde contribution stands to be for those parties.

[ham74] 24/1/2023 13:29

Do you expect any fundraising news before interim results due in March? There seems to be a steady stream of sellers around 1.4 to 1.5p at the moment.

[warbaby43] 18/1/2023 12:57

gark is the real old timer here and a visit to the LSE board tells you that some on there date back to when the share price was expressed in pounds and not pence.

Hard to be overly amazed when the delay is down to a combination of the O&G industry and a W African government with it being a toss up which of them habitually moves at the more sub glacial a pace

With it now being over four years since end of drilling all v frustrating, but first year plus was lost by the ridiculous time it took for the resource update audit from D&M. Then there was the apparently blind alley of the Limbe plant and the FEED process for that and the JVP apparently unable to find alignment on development until, seemingly, NA caved and the Bioko option seriously opened up with SNH consent for that to be investigated, only then for NA to chuck the towel in and exit at presumably a willing sellers price.

That there will be more wrangling and delay seems inevitable given the nature of the beasts involved but O&G revenue does have a critical role not just in the overall Cameroon economy but in financing the office of the President and its praetorian guard and, as we have seen from the Offshore Energy links, without new supply that revenue, while already declining, is going to nosedive around 2026.

[gark] 18/1/2023 09:57

Unless Perenco really bought it on the cheap, you would expect that they are motivated to get this going. Who knows?

[ham74] 17/1/2023 16:40

The endless delays seem mind boggling to me. As one of the old timers, are you amazed that this has dragged on for so many years without monetisation? Or by this stage, do you expect it could easily drag on for many more years, so long as some extra equity capital is raised? Is there anything really key - besides running out of cash - that makes you think this is approachig end game?

[warbaby43] 16/1/2023 12:38

Thanks for that gark but difficult to envisage those DRC Perenco fields ever feeding Malabo with the distance being c 1100 km (c700 miles in real money) given the likely cost of a wet gas pipeline of that length.

However, given that Perenco are also in Congo and Gabon as well as DRC and Cameroon, it would seem to be pretty much a given that they have conversations with the EG parties. Also worth noting, perhaps, is that Chevron apparently have their EG and Cameroon assets up for sale via the Jefferies bank with the media attaching a billion dollar price tag. Going to be interesting to see who buys and would such a price tag be beyond Perenco's reach?

On Etinde production to Bioko, buy_more put a link up to this back in August but nowt more has appeared in that publication nor did the report appear in "Business in Cameroon:

Https://ecomatin.net/hydrocarbures-le-cameroun-veut-traiter-son-gaz-naturel-en-guinee-equatoriale2/

Meanwhile, on LNG it now seems that there's another "F" on the block besides Floating LNG and it would seem that one of the projects is offshore Congo with ENI, though on the ENI website New Fortress and FAST LNG are not specifically mentioned.

Https://ir.newfortressenergy.com/static-files/a5204b36-c6ad-4739-8061-692b12b8e92b

Https://www.eni.com/en-IT/media/press-release/2022/04/republic-congo-and-eni-agree-increase-gas-production-supply.html

However, the project is mentioned in "Offshore Engineer" and it's also worth noting that the standard unit is 1.4 mtpa which is far more likely to be relevant should the obvious Bioko route be binned for what ever reason:

Https://www.oedigital.com/news/495481-new-fortress-energy-plans-to-build-offshore-lng-export-project-in-louisiana-by-q1-2023

"In February, New Fortress and a unit of Italian energy company Eni SpA agreed to deploy New Fortress' Fast LNG technology off the coast of the Republic of the Congo to produce up to 1.4 MTPA of LNG for a period of 20 years, with production expected to start in the second quarter of 2023."

Herewith a NFE's YouTube Fast LNG video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IL6YGIeAMLk

Perhaps worth mentioning too is that New Fortress did buy a slab of assets from Golar including an interest in the Episeyo.

[nufckk] 14/1/2023 16:23

Sorry Hamz the Saudi stuff was football banter, just passing time as the Cameroon admin grind their way towards the takeover decision.
Interesting find Gark,I can't say I've seen anything in the press linking Perenco and Bioko before

[gark] 14/1/2023 14:28

https://www.upstreamonline.com/politics/plans-afoot-to-commercialise-dr-congo-gas/2-1-1363708This is interesting as implies that Perenco is building relationship with EG and potentially looking to Bioko for both Congo and Cameroon projects. Be brilliant if that is the case.

[ham74] 12/1/2023 17:32

Is this Saudi ownership relevant to Bowleven?

[warbaby43] 12/1/2023 13:08

"And so to the Saudi ownership. I know, I know, we should know our place"

'Pon my soul KK, what a sensitive bunch you lot are and always so quick to claim "the world's agin us" victimhood - just like your Scouse soul brothers in fact! As it happens, I didn't, and don't, have any particular problem with the Saudis given foreign ownership appears here to stay. It was rather the London mob, sports journalists to the fore, who were so sniffy and that's because for them it's no problem with Iran but Saudi bad, very,very bad and that's been the case for some years now. However, unlikely that the lads at the Gallowgate End give a toss what woke leftie London scribblers think and nor should they.

[stpalm] 12/1/2023 00:58

Someone turn the lights off on your way out. GLA

[gark] 11/1/2023 19:48

I am with you. Own too much and this looks doomed. Shame.

[kbrook] 11/1/2023 18:49

When was the last time any of the board bought any? Seems to tell a tale, I've been in here from when it was over £1 I'm resigned to losing all now, in fact it would be a blessed relief to stop the pain. I'm in for the long haul whatever the outcome, the 45p that whatever his name is needs to achieve to get his bonus is looking fairly unlikely!!.Suppose he's happy with his salary for all the graft he does daily!

[dealy] 11/1/2023 13:35

Market cap now just 5m GBP. Surely an individual wealthy investor would be willing to pay more than that for the assets, tax losses, opportunities etc. Never mind what an oil & gas company might be willing to pay

[nufckk] 10/1/2023 13:29

Thanks for the reply Warbaby. I have experience of the UK Monopolies Commission. I was a site manager of a northern manufacturing group taken over by a company from darn sarf. We were left in a state of near paralysis for 7 months before it was eventually approved. Eli has stated he expects it to be sorted this quarter.
I am still totally cheesed off that we are going to be diluted but I believe current shareholders will be offered the chance to buy. Small consolation bearing in mind I already have more in this than I'd like.
Anyway, what facts can we be reasonably confident of:
Two of the three owners of the asset (62.5%) prefer the Bioko option.
We, and I include Eli in this, do not know what Perenco will come up with.
Production at Episeyo drops off a cliff in 2 to 3 years time leaving a hole in Perenco's balance sheet and Cameroon's tax intake that I feel certain they will both be keen to fill as quickly as possible.

Conjecture. Suppose Perenco come up with a different idea. How do things work between the JVP. Does the Operator's wishes carry the day? Do they vote on it if they don't agree or does it just become a stalemate. If it is a stalemate is the solution Perenco buying Bowleven?
I notice the office in London has gone and staff have been put on temporary contracts. Ok, it saves a surprising amount of money but it would also leave less to sort out if we were sold.
One of Etinde's stumbling blocks appears to be the amount of gas we need to supply to Cameroon for non existant power generation. Could Perenco get around this by offering to supply from one of their declining fields?
I'm sure Perenco with their lengthy involvement will know how to "incentivise" the correct people in order to oil the wheels of progress.
Anyway, just my ramblings, I'm more than happy to listen to others thoughts, especially on how the JVP reach a decision in the event of a disagreement

[warbaby43] 09/1/2023 15:12

"I was merely referring to Bows continual plugging of Etindes value in reports and during conference calls."

Yeah, you're right KK and everything should be put into the perspective that BLVN do have as their asset c 50m boe that's within c 30km of the major processing and LNG infrastructure on Bioko and the cause of so much of the frustration has been the unwillingness of New Age and, probably SNH, to take that obvious route to development. We must now hope, I guess, that Perenco come onboard with BLVN's and Lukoil's preferred Bioko option and that SNH are prepared to go along given their need for a significant new source of O&G revenue come 2026.

Meanwhile, just think of how much you could have won if you'd stuck a few bob on my lot having to look up the table at your lot at this point of the season

[nufckk] 08/1/2023 15:49

Ooooof...thanks for that Warbaby.It goes someway to explaining my absence from posting.
I did state I knew little of these things and may well be over optimistic, I wasn't attempting to influence anyone, I was merely referring to Bows continual plugging of Etindes value in reports and during conference calls. I do sincerely hope your pessimstic view does not prove correct especially given your recent purchase prior to the takeover.
Regarding your comment on SNH's delays, I couldn't agree more though I thought the deal was referred to the Cameroon version of our Monopolies Commission which I'd assume was separate to SNH.
Regarding the football. I certainly never suggested the toon would win the league this year or the Champions League next. Indeed I know of no fellow toon supporters who would, or do so either. After years of stagnation we are enjoying a hopefully not too brief moment in the sun. We certainly seem to have got under the skins of the self annointed/righteous "big six" who would have quite happily abandoned the rest of us in order to enrich themselves via the European superleague.

[warbaby43] 08/1/2023 14:13

Our posts crossed Toon and such a heady level of optimism:

"would be disappointed if it was less than the £150 mil that Bowleven has continually highlighted"

Virtually cashless and a long way still from FID that £150 mil belongs in the same category of dreams as NUFC winning the PL this season and the European Cup next.