|Winnet Value investing theory does not apply to aim where value is almost always considered to be potential whereas in the main market value means simply value. The aim is gambling, with style|
|Winnet I may read the book but for the moment Paul Mason's book on neo-liberal economics is enough of a challenge. I actually think that value investing is a hugely complex process and requires enormous skill and diligence; even having strategically executed buys at the most optimal points can not offset complex risks, many of which are quite novel to us as pi's, unable as we often are to accrue experience and to learn from the errors of our predecessors.
For me, patience is the attribute that I have gained after several years having started out in recovery plays and asset classes oversold in the credit crunch, 'value' investing certainly has not increased the value of my portfolios.
However, learning to control emotion has led to many profit taking decisions which at the very least, have kept me in play and supported buying quite large quantities of shares at what look to be equities where valuation gaps exist.|
|The real value here is Etinde and the two appraisal wells. Were i to be able to hold through this phrase which no doubt IMO will be hugely value accretive, then that is where the real value was in this investment. This is now extremely unlikely. IMHO|
It was the old BOD that sucked the value from investors , thats the fact of the matter|
Maybe so, but surely if the junior markets are unsuitable for value investors like myslef then we have a serious problem to resolve.
Stiglitz book on financialization may be of interest to some. Surely junior markets are there to grow good small companies for benefit of their shareholders and the UK economy more generally? Not some financial pozi scheme where monaco based money men suck the value from real investors.
I kind of agree with you, maybe without actively trading these shares I have been kidding myself all these years.|
|Chin up fella, these guys think it's worth it:
OVMK Vermogensbeheer 15,343,934 4.78
JPMorgan Investment Management 13,586,375 4.24|
|Looks like we escaped the chains of share price 20 to the new range of 34 and without any new news I reckon we may have peaked! Is this it until sale of Etinde.? Are we now to suffer a long demoralising dry spell of news or will it be over quickly if it was pre arranged. This is probably the only news to come now. Have to say as a long term holder , this once exciting prospect has now become another aim car crash, depressing but , in hindsight probably expected.|
|It is evident though that profligacy is endemic in AIM BOD's, the market is highly alternative in that it excels in warehousing risk onto Pi's for years, then, magically, the value is slickly transferred to the suits. Bondholders, offshore private houses etc.
To be honest Win I was a bit unfair on you, the whole game is unsuitable for value investors but designed for traders.|
|I don't think anyone can accuse me of not holding the BOD to account. I spoke via email and phone to KH and others many times over the years.
I was possibly the most active i have ever been across all companies I own with BLVN.
I also voted at all opportunities and even attended a couple of PI meetings.
So calling me out personally on this issue is totally unfair.
Arguably the system of CG we have is broken.
I have always said, don't hate the player, hate the game.|
|The problem you have Winny, is not holding the Bod to account when you had the opportunity to, I always said that the Bod were non-entrepreneurial, had Stockholm Syndrome, were actually sub-average, greedy and to homogeneous.
Do some investors share the same traits I wonder?
Buy Rockhopper, inflexion point has, imvho, been achieved.|
You said - "I can't really fathom the thinking behind those that have sold at below the current price because COC might force through a deal which is above the current price - but not as much as they might get if they waited."
The thinking. My thinking. Is that now COC have control they will cut [some] costs and sell Etinde... Furthermore, I originally invested here on a risk-reward basis aligned to the previous strategy - now that strategy has been kicked into the long grass, i no longer want to be involved in the XY or Z approach that COC have. The risk/reward ratio has changed for the worse IMO. You see it differently, thats your call.
It's therefore not an investment for me. I hope this helps you "fathom" it?
Its as simple as that.
COC may be able to sell Etinde on. They may not. It may take 1 year, it may take 5. In the interim, the share price might go to 40p or it might drop to 25p? Binning Bomono having spent all that cash makes no sense from this point in, but they have no choice as they've lost the team to save a few quid.
I have sold all my shares now, but wish you and the rest of the COC fans the best.|
|serica's mkt cap just three weeks ago was about 65m$ and generating 3m$ free cash per monthits risen but has 30m cash at hand/no debt and further illustrates the opportunities we ( the board ) missed from the bottom of the cycle with vog to the presentserica of course viewed as risky (rightly so) as it only has one producing asseti wish blvn was viewed as risky...ps. i hold serica|
|If only BLVN had earned some actual revenue during its 18 years or more of existence...like VOG. GLA.
Victoria Oil & Gas
A Q1 2017 operational update today from VOG which has been a stellar performer of late as the market tags on to just how much the stock is undervalued. The key features are, production up, again, two Logbaba wells currently drilling, the Bowleven farm-in under way and initial positive news from Matanda where early seismic shows ‘considerable gas in place potential’.
So, Logbaba gas production is up 10.7%to 14.57 mmscf/d as the dry season continues and thus sales remain on an upward track. Drilling two new wells continues and La-108 has encountered gross pay of 125m of high permeability, high porosity gas bearing sands which should result in a ‘significant increase in proven reserves’. ( Bear in mind that the La-105 well pay was only 84m) The well has since been side-tracked after a ‘well control incident’ that was safely dealt with but will add around five weeks and $8m to the overall cost of the well but will be recouped from revenue. La-107 has been drilled and casing set to 1618m, both wells will be tested in Q2 and complete in Q3. A high pressure gas flowline is being installed to enable early production.
The Q1 revenue was $8.1m (Q4 4.6m) and the current cash position is $14.1m. With record gas sales in March one can remain genuinely optimistic about the future, especially as the company has completed phases 11 and 111 of the pipeline making 50km in total and added six new customers with two more waiting to tap in. This confirms that there is large, unsatisfied energy demand in Cameroon and VOG is very well placed to profit from it.
I have just returned from a visit to see VOG in Cameroon and its subsidiary Gaz du Cameroun (GDC) where I was extremely impressed by the set up and its local management. We visited the Logbaba gas project including seeing the two wells currently drilling and saw the pipeline from Logbaba all the way through Douala. In the process we saw a number of GDC’s key clients, including the ENEO power stations using GDC gas. ( a contract that is shortly due to expire but I am convinced will rollover as negotiations are ‘well advanced’) Other clients we saw were a palm oil factory, two huge brewing operations at Guinness and SABC as well as Chococam which is part of Tiger Brands, chocolate and beer, what more could you ask for? Finally we visited Bomono which is intended to supply gas to the other end of the pipe in Douala where significant expansion is already under way. This would complete this part of the jigsaw and whilst subject to Government approval, should mean that either of the existing wells at Moambe and Zingana or even new wells, could supply gas to the rapidly expanding Douala customer base. The existing pipeline is only 9.5km away and most of the route could be constructed through a rubber plantation that has been untapped for several years making the infrastructure much easier.
The VOG format in Cameroon is rapidly becoming a significant money making operation, supplying gas to power projects and substantial commercial customers. There is no sign of any slowdown and the ‘cradle to grave’ utility model is proving to be a highly successful. Cameroon is seeing considerable inward investment, particularly from Chinese companies in the area and I see the total available market for gas to be growing faster than GDC can supply it. It would not be stupid to suggest that some such clients might even help finance the pipeline construction in order to be at the front of the queue for gas. Accordingly, providing the Bomono deal completes, then further gas supplies can be easily and cheaply brought on stream ensuring considerable increases in revenue and profitability. The longer term but potentially huge opportunities provided by the Matanda block can only add to the model which already looks in very good shape. Recent operational problems aside, I continue to view VOG as a significant opportunity and remain with my current target price of 200p|
|jagyou need to get over it, the board were an unmitigated disaster for this companyyou do realise that blvns bomono jolly cost us roughly 40% of etindethats right the coveted etinde everyone is currently fighting over oh and the cash which is much greater than it otherwise would be thanks to very fortunate currency movements|
|"Any company or person who builds up a stake of 30%, is obliged to make an offer for the company."
A couple of posts over on iii on this subject with this being one by Muzzletoff:
"Of course COC board closed down the Strategic review period asap. This avoids any model code implications for takeovers.
What does this achieve. It means a return of capital can be done through a Tender Offer. This will probably mean that COC will in all likelyhood become controlling shareholders if they only partly tender some of their shareholding for cash or are instead opt a dividend ( there is no tax disadvantage either way for them) if given a choice between selling their shares or getting the dividend -not unusual in tender offers. A tender offer could include a whitewash (an exemption) for shareholders who do not sell shares but whose % interests increase pass through 30% (usually a trigger for a takeover rules to kick in, but not where there is a whitewash exemption).
NA would not make an offer whilst the model code is in play, and there is no controlling shareholdings, as this makes counter offers more likely or a challenge more certain.
When or if NA makes their offer, COC will get double bubble for their investment, as they have done as they said they would do for shareholders, but effectively gained control without having to go through a model code stipulation.
We will see how independent the board members are now I guess!?"
The other post posited a tender offer at 30% to take the company private at a suggested price of 40-44p.
Those with rather more regulatory knowledge than me may care to argue the toss on those scenarios.|
|VOG- expected cost 40 million...current forecast 56 million
Do you know the BLVN's ex- management figures?
We all do|
|Funny how BLVN'S shareholders made such a big fuss over the cost of two wells in Bomono, the two wells in Logbaba will cost VOG $56 million.|
|Any company or person who builds up a stake of 30%, is obliged to make an offer for the company. But my guess is the reason they are still buying is to make sure they have enough clout to swing the vote when an offer is put on the table and I'm sure we all know who that might be. Perm any 1 from 3 .|
|COC continue to accumulate and fearful PIs continue to sell. Once a dividend has been paid, the share price will drop substantially and my forecast is that COC will use the dividend money to buy more shares. How far will it go? That is anybody's guess at the moment.|
YES. They are mentioned on most of their TR1s.|
|And on the other hand they might just do exactly what they put on their tin - work towards exiting Bomono, review capital requirement over next few years and return balance of cash to shareholders while engaging with the partnership to bring Etinde to, or close to, fruition and then look to sale of company complete with all its accumulated losses.
Remember again that they were prepared to bide their time over a few years to maximise their Eurohypo killing.|
|Wshak. Totally agree with you. I continue to hold and believe we will see a take out at some point soon that is higher than the share price today and that will deliver more value from these levels.|
|Have the two intermediate holding companies mentioned in the RNS ever been mentioned before?|
Thanks for the reply. I have held between 1 and 2 million shares now for around 4 years Just looking for sensible exit from this disappointing episode.. It would be nice to hear a little more form the new Board though.. It is reassuring that COC seem to becontinuing to buy. I agree with yourself, I cannot see the logic in selling below the current price.|