Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[dealy] 23/2/2024 15:07

it's possible Perenco could come back in if the local authorities got their act together. so they might have been using this to apply pressure.The 1m market cap of bowleven makes no sense. Many opt exist, including selling the whole stake to Perenco or Lukoil for 10m.

[ham74] 22/2/2024 19:48

It seemed a sure thing that Perenco, the biggest local player, wanted to add Etinde, close to its existing production. The offer for New Age's stake seemed to validate the valuation, because the annual report said there was no reason to change the valuation.

So what could have gone wrong? We may never find out, but are there some sensible educated guesses?

[tomboyb] 19/2/2024 07:28

Mkt cap is £1mill -

Licence worth much, much more than that so I wonder if a white knight will appear -

[riskyinvestor] 16/2/2024 09:51

Tower Resources (TRP) is the Cameroon play to be in

[tomboyb] 16/2/2024 09:49

Bit of fun -

You can sell at 0.27p -

[tomboyb] 16/2/2024 08:41

Well Gark -

Just picked up 100k just in case something positive happens -

Not a lot but last time shot past 2p -

[gark] 15/2/2024 22:37

Now worth under £1mn, not sure there are any options left....

[ham74] 14/2/2024 13:15

Does Sonara rebuilding have any positive optionality for Etinde?

[warbaby43] 13/2/2024 12:34

"This news is also tying in with this which also begs the question of what might be happening with the Sonara refinery"

In fact, it's all happening up around Victoria/Limbe:



Meanwhile last week, after only being in Cameroon for a little over two years, M. Simondin gets his reward for saying "NON" to any embroilment in the Etinde JVP:

[warbaby43] 12/2/2024 16:16

"And how do you know RDR gas is more expensive that Etinde?"

I don't, which is why I used the word "might". Etinde is certainly much closer, c35km, than the main RDR producers the "RDR Association Fields" up at the northern end of the PSC so somewhere around 80-km distant from Limbe, so there will certainly be additional pipeline costs as well as which there will also be extra well and wellhead cost at wells which are at the moment solely producing oil and flaring the gas.

Having said that the wells are already there so, presumably, major drilling costs saved and the gas production can be available much more swiftly than from Etinde given where the JVP currently is.

This news is also tying in with this which also begs the question of what might be happening with the Sonara refinery:



"Specializing in the transport of heavy products such as hydrocarbons, cement, containers and other agricultural products, the port of Limbé will provide better access to international markets."

We are, I guess, just going to have to wait to see what transpires with the HI Results due not very far away at the end of March

[ham74] 12/2/2024 13:43

Other shareholders in RDR ( Rio Del Rey ) are :

China Petrochemical, Creative Energy, National Hydrocarbons (ie SNH).

Could either of the first two be interested in Etinde?

And how do you know RDR gas is more expensive that Etinde?

[warbaby43] 12/2/2024 13:04

As to what gas and from where silence, but if not from Etinde then presumably SNH have done a deal with Perenco to use RDR gas and while the RDR product might be more expensive than Etinde's, SNH do have a 60% share of the largest producing field. If this is what's gone on then it would presumably account for the 18 months spent up till the "Termination of Transaction" on 25th January:

[ham74] 02/2/2024 16:55

Apart from Lukoil, are there any other players active in Cameroon or Equatorial Guinea who might enter the fray? eg Marathon in EG, Chinese firms in Cameroon?

[ham74] 31/1/2024 10:04

Yes VOG is currently in administration. I have not seen any conclusion to that process. I suppose there is some remote prospect of some other firm buying them out of administration and trying to rekindle something?

[warbaby43] 31/1/2024 09:57

For a start, read the final para and ask yourself whither VOG.

[ham74] 30/1/2024 09:04

What in that article do you find to be of questionable accuracy?

[warbaby43] 30/1/2024 08:36

A very large pinch of salt advisable with "Business in Cameroon" and Brice R Mbodiam:

[jordaggy] 26/1/2024 11:31

The stranded asset will fall to the Cameroon government...thats the plan.

[warbaby43] 26/1/2024 11:30

After 18 months no great surprise, but serves us right for expecting owt positive to come from involvement with the French and doubtful whether we will ever find out whether it was SNH declining to give consent to the transaction or Perenco never seriously progressing the deal.

With a market cap of just $1.8m, no development plan and NA seemingly skint as well, fund raising becomes like climbing the Eiger.

Although previously seeming semi detached, Lukoil's position is intriguing not least in that they've got substantially over $200m sunk into Etinde and likely that BLVN's best (only?) hope must be that they step in for the New Age stake which combined would then give them P2 146 mboe, though whether as Russian they could ever pursue the Bioko option with the Texans might be open to question. Still I guess there are other development options.

Does that emptying of the coffers in February 2019 now look like reckless folly or what!

PS This jumbled, inaccurate piece appeared in "Business in Cameroon":

[dealy] 26/1/2024 10:44

Nobody seems to be able to move this project forward. A bit like the Panama Canal before the USA got involved. Perenco should have been a positive catalyst but they seem to have given up

[hooded claw] 25/1/2024 15:28

I sold this at 40p a share at a profit just after the hostile takeover that was for delivering the true value of Bowleven ... Oh what a mess they made !!

[glavey] 25/1/2024 12:28

Zzzzzz....

[ham74] 25/1/2024 11:29

Will another party enter the fray now and bid for New Age and/or Bowleven's stake in Etinde?

[ham74] 19/12/2023 13:58

They did not say any exact price. Over the summer in July it did bounce to 3p on a small amount of buying.

They have repeatedly said that they would aim to let all shareholders participate in any offering. There was no change to that at the AGM.

It is also fairly normal to have an open offer. During Covid we saw quite a few urgent/emergency type deals disapplying preemption rights, but I would say they are fairly rare.

[tabhair] 19/12/2023 12:51

"Bowleven would prefer to see the share price rebound to minimise dilution."

I did laugh at this bit. What do they mean, instead of trading at .50p they want it to trade at 1p instead? At this sort of market cap, the share price is irrelevant as any dilution is going to be chunky.

The biggest question here (assuming you believe there is value in the asset) is that minority shareholders are going to be protected and allowed to take part in any rights issue on equal terms.

Did AGM attendees get any sense that management would do right in this regard?