Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[edmundshaw] 14/12/2016 08:17

Oh topvest, you don't believe in "no more boom and bust"? :-)

[topvest] 13/12/2016 18:19

This company is doing OK in my view. The share price will start motoring as insolvencies start to increase. Whether you like it or not it's a FACT that we are now closer to this happening. It may be in the next year, 2-5 years away or longer...but it's coming! This share is one of the best contra cyclical companies that you can buy, if you take a contrarian view. Insolvency experts will be much busier than they are now sometime in the not too distant future given that insolvencies have been heading lower for 6/7 years.

[bonio10000] 13/12/2016 12:06

I believe there is business out there - but it is all about being on the right bank boards etc to get their work.

In general, other companies seems to be, as the article states, zombie, in which case they generally have few assets to realise so little in the way of fees.

Of course, a good recession/botched brexit can change the amount of personal and corporate appointments and we are due one.

Just saying it as I see it - the wife is an IP and I have multiple friends in the business. In my firm, a top 25 accountancy practice, they have scaled back their insolvency department over the last 4 to 5 years and are not really busy. And that is 3 partners in central london.

[dogwalker] 13/12/2016 11:59

Maybe bonio10000's anecdote is a contrarian indicator. Light here ! If BEG maintain their staff levels they're more likely to hoover up when the time comes ?
(We need some/any positivity after this morning's disappointment).

[norbert colon] 13/12/2016 11:29

Insolvency Practitioner....! ?

[edmundshaw] 13/12/2016 10:43

IP? Your wife is intellectual property? Whose?? I assume IP does not stand for internet protocol in this context...

[bonio10000] 13/12/2016 10:00

The insolvency business has been spinning the same lines for a decade.

My wife is a qualified IP and most firms have been laying staff off in the profession.

[dogwalker] 13/12/2016 08:59

Ho-hum. That's the best one can say about today's 'results'. They were in line with someone's expectations though, which is nice.

[edmundshaw] 25/10/2016 23:42

Paul, thanks. Entertaining discussion, good to hear Ric T.'s more informally expressed views; and some interesting points raised - particularly liked the stuff about his seeing Edisons doing OK in a downturn. It's the odd gems like that which cannot be found in reports, and interestingly came from him without prompting.

I always think it is good to ask for a CEO's view of things and what HE (or she) thinks is most important for the business going forward - let them open up rather than answer specific questions. It works, too, you sometimes get into factors you hadn't imagined and also an insight (good or bad) into the guy's thinking. And the question is often appreciated.

Like you, this is to an extent one of my hedges against a business downturn (as opposed to a stock market downturn) with a good yield for waiting.

[paulypilot] 25/10/2016 10:10

Here's my interview with Ric Traynor, which I hope people find interesting.

Please do leave feedback on my website, as it's always good to hear what people like/dislike, etc, as helps me improve them in future.



Regards, Paul.

[topvest] 19/10/2016 21:04

That's why I topped up a few weeks ago. Nice to know Paul agrees with me.

[paulypilot] 18/10/2016 22:12

Hi,

Given worries about Brexit, and the drop in sterling likely to create a tougher environment for retailers & consumers in 2017, I thought it would be interesting to chat to the CEO of Begbies, Ric Traynor.

So I will be interviewing him shortly (on 24 Oct 2016) by phone, and publishing it on my website. I'm not charging a fee, so it's independent.

The reason for posting here is to ask for any questions you would like me to ask on your behalf. So if you wish to submit a question, the form is on this page:


I'll put another link up here in due course, when the audio is published.

Regards, Paul.

[alex1621] 09/8/2016 05:58

I think we may well see a slow down, but with rock bottom interest rates the so-called 'zombies' are likely to continue in business ... I don't see any sign of a change in circumstances, the normal pattern in recessions seems to have been stymied by quantitative easing and unprecedented low interest rates.

[dogwalker] 20/7/2016 10:31

Interesting points, alex1621. The dropping like a stone bit you refer to relating to the shortage of expected new business after the big '08 crisis etc is no doubt holding off committment by a few investors currently i.e. once bitten etc.
But we don't have a universal crisis as such now, more a rolling 'change of circumstances' for individual businesses to cope as best they can with. This should produce customers for Begbie's to help.
I hope we don't get the general confidence crisis you describe in your last sentence, even though Begbie's may well benefit there too, as you say.

[alex1621] 09/7/2016 07:19

It soared during the financial crisis only to drop like a stone as the predicted insolvency growth failed to happen ... they also tend to acquire a great deal using paper, so diluting your shareholding. I look at it as a play on interest rates ... if currency weakness feeds through to higher prices that the Bank of England cannot ignore, it may well do very well in a growing interest rate environment.

[lomcovaks] 08/7/2016 13:32

Me too Norbert and I'm still a few hundred under water despite today's rise. Still, the divi is worth having and things will/must turn around at some point and the banks start cutting loose all the zombie companies on their books.

[norbert colon] 08/7/2016 06:31

I see that BEG has been tipped in the IC as a beneficiary of Brexit namely the potential for an increased number of insolvencies. I have held for a long time as a partial hedge against economic headwinds.

[edmundshaw] 11/5/2016 08:47

EBITA is £3m, finance costs are £0.5m, cover is 6x.

Nebt debt at 31 October 2015 was £11.9m Adjusted profit before tax £2.5m, for the half, before amortization; gearing of 20% (2014: 28%).

Not stripping out amortization may reflect badly on past acquisition decisions, but does not reflect the current balance sheet strength.

[davr0s] 10/5/2016 20:27

So if I read the last half year RNS correctly their debt is 10x annualised profit, but they still pay divi - how does that work?!

[lefrene] 10/3/2016 12:24

Is there a prize for the briefest, least informative trading statement ever?

[bonio10000] 23/2/2016 08:04

The fact sales are declining despite buying turnover says it all.

You buy a company, the previous partner does his stint and moves on.

I just don;t get the model.