Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[xdavid] 08/3/2013 09:10

A P/E of 10 would suit me fine. Preferably on rising earnings, of course.

[bonio10000] 07/3/2013 18:48

The reason is revenues and profits are flat and accountancy practices are usually valued relatively lowly, given it is a people business.

I don;t see the conspiracy theory that this should be on a P/E of 15.

[cyberbub] 07/3/2013 17:08

There's the reason for the drop this morning... 33k sell... Crikey this share is illiquid...

[cyberbub] 06/3/2013 17:29

Most of the trades today seem to be buys, so it all helps to move us up hopefully...

[asagi] 05/3/2013 21:45

I think that this fact could be established by contacting the company directly. I would assume that Caledonia's trades have now cleared and should be reflected in the company's share register.

An enquiry to the company secretary might provide clarity as this person will have access to the company's register.

The most recent annual report lists 'John Humphrey' as Begbies' company secretary. Just hope he lets you ask him the question rather than butting in all the time like he does when he is on the Today programme.

Asagi (long BEG)

AR here:

[cyberbub] 05/3/2013 20:58

Excellent thanks, onwards and upwards hopefully! NAI

[paulypilot] 05/3/2013 19:53

Yup, I've heard from 2 good market sources that Caledonia are out completely now.

PP.

[cyberbub] 05/3/2013 19:27

Pauly do you think Caledonia are finally out now?

[paulypilot] 05/3/2013 18:16

Haich - glad you found my post helpful :-)

Karmicpete - that's exactly right. When a company tries to grow out of a Recession, when economic recovery starts, then two balance sheet debits rise (stock & debtors) for only one credit rising (trade creditors). Hence it puts a squeeze on their cashflow which can tip them over the edge, after they have managed to survive the worst of the downturn.

Also, Banks are more likely to put companies into Administration when the economy is recovering, because there will be more buyers for the company's assets, hence likely to achieve a better sale value.

The Banks have themselves sought to protect their own positions, by allowing problem companies leeway, such that as long as they are paying the interest on debt, then the Bank can classify the debt as performing (even though in reality the borrower is insolvent).

This has been a massive distortion to the economy, and whist some zombie companies will survive by trading their way out of the recession, there is now a huge backlog of companies which need to go through some kind of insolvency arrangement at some point. So BEG should have a long tail of work for years to come. Although they saw no sign of it emerging when the last set of results were presented.

BEG are up against a lot of competition though, from the big accountancy firms, who can charge double BEG's rates, but have close relationships with the banks such that they can somehow persuade them to overpay for a service that BEG could provide at half the cost.

Regards, Paul.

[lefrene] 05/3/2013 14:48

A rise in insolvencies is often seen as heralding a general upturn, for exactly the explanation you have stated karmicpete.

[karmicpete] 05/3/2013 14:36

One of my accountancy friends says companies are more likely to get into trouble at the start of an upturn as they're usually unable to secure sufficient money to fund purchases etc. Makes sense if you think about it, especially as banks are not lending to SMEs at the moment.

KP

[haich] 05/3/2013 13:31

Wow ! Paul thank you so much that makes perfect sense ! I have searched every where to locate information re overhangs. Thank you for taking time out of ur day to explain this to me. The principal is quite simple .thanks !!!

[cyberbub] 05/3/2013 12:53

Liquidity seems to have dried up a bit today?

[paulypilot] 05/3/2013 11:06

Haich,

A share overhang occurs where a large seller is constantly drip-feeding shares into the market. So this means that, however many buyers appear, and buy shares, that demand is always met by the seller.

Remember that the market makers are just middle-men, who run a neutral book, so they just move shares from the big seller, to the buyers.

When the overhang runs out, then the whole dynamic changes.
Buyers will now find that there isn't any stock overhang, so if they want to buy, they have to chase the price up until sellers supply the shares.

This can happen quite rapidly, and can trigger a buying frenzy, where instead of a rising price triggering sellers to emerge, it just stimulates more buyers to also chase the price up.


It all just boils down to simple demand & supply. If supply of anything is plentiful, then the price is low. If a shortage of supply occurs, then the price goes up when demand is there.

Cheers, Paul.

[haich] 05/3/2013 00:18

Hi regarding the sells of cal investments..surely this will only depress the share price ? But i note the more learned on this front say that it will cause the share price to increase could anyone please explain the podituve effect of a share overhang ? Thanks guys

[cyberbub] 01/3/2013 18:23

Those two large late trades were from Weds morning... Perhaps Caledonia sells?

[nw99] 01/3/2013 08:20

Long term chart looks very bullish

[sir leonardo] 28/2/2013 19:32

SIR STILL SAYS DIS IS A SELL FFS NOT A POSITION SIR WOULD HOLD!!!!!!!!!

[cyberbub] 28/2/2013 10:44

Nice rise so far... Still some way to go in coming days, IMO...

[cyberbub] 28/2/2013 07:46

Profits in line.. Overhang clearing... Hopefully all good...

[asagi] 28/2/2013 07:40

Trading statement out this a.m:



"The Board's expectations for the year as a whole remain unchanged...."

Asagi (long BEG)

[cyberbub] 27/2/2013 22:55

Well, as I say, they may still have a few hundred thousand to go, it's difficult to tell, but it will not take long now IMO

[jamielein] 27/2/2013 20:01

Not sure about them being 100% out as there were quite a few large buys after the trades were reported, and the offer price didn't move at all. I think there may still be an overhang. I suppose we'll find out tomorrow.

[norbert colon] 27/2/2013 18:31

Yes, from the trades sizes today looks like they are 100% out. I have my order in for tomorrow...

[deanowls] 27/2/2013 18:25

RNS out, now gone below the reportable 3%, shouldnt be long before there cleared for a mini take off!