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[aleman] 07/3/2017 10:08

We have seen an improvement in activity levels in our insolvency business in the third quarter, as anticipated at the time of our half year results which we reported in December 2016. This leaves us well placed for a strong last quarter ...

That sounds reasonably promising and I've found an insolvency practitioner that is recruiting for an expected increase in business.




Alvarez & Marsal Bolsters Business To Prepare For Wave of Restructurings
William Louch
06 Mar 2017
The firm has boosted its restructuring practice ahead of an anticipated surge in restructuring work
London-based advisory firm Alvarez & Marsal has boosted its restructuring team with the appointment of six former KPMG partners, as the firm prepares for a wave of insolvencies among U.K. retailers in 2017.

[aleman] 02/3/2017 12:58

US lease financing credit quality looks to have started deteriorating significantly again after slight rises last year.



Receivables over 30 days were 1.70%, up from 1.40% the previous month and up from 1.30% in the same period in 2016. Charge-offs were 0.43%, up slightly from 0.42% the previous month, and up from 0.26% in the same period last year.

[aleman] 02/3/2017 12:54

Some real horror stories coming from US consumer stocks today:















Abercrombie's sales were down 5.5% on the year but 6.9% in the quarter to Jan 28.




The trend seems to be 2016 was weak for bricks and mortar stores, especially malls, with Q4 poor and Q1 bloody awful so far. Stockmarkets just keep ignoring the bad news and hitting new highs

A number of UK consumer stocks have been reporting slowdowns but the they've been pretty modest, e.g. Gregg's like for like slowing from 4.2% in 2016 to 2% in the early part of 2017.. As I've said previously, it feels like the UK is 6 months behind the US. But what difference does that make if markets don;t heed bad news?

[aleman] 01/3/2017 11:19

Insolvencies up in USA and Canada

[aleman] 27/2/2017 14:27

US outstanding bank lending falls for second consecutive month for first time in 5 years as banks tighten lending restrictions in response to rising defaults.

[aleman] 23/2/2017 10:00

US Bank cards see a 9% rise in defaults in one month. I would imagine the hit to bank balance sheets could be significant if it is not just a blip. Of course, this was yesterday's bad news and markets just ignored it again.

[aleman] 20/2/2017 08:58

Today's reports of troubles at Bovis, Hayward Tyler and Interserve suggest UK bad news is spreading out of retail and consumer into (larger?) companies throughout the market.

[aleman] 19/2/2017 17:11

US looks to be deteriorating.

[aleman] 16/2/2017 13:01

US auto loan delinquencies rise sharply in Q3 and Q4 to reach highest since 2009. (Chart says it all.) The average amount borrowed is up 25% over that period.

[aleman] 16/2/2017 08:04

50.5p bid. There will always be a lot of sellers at a number like 50p. It looks like it could nearly be behind us now.

[aleman] 15/2/2017 22:56

Britain’s biggest building society has dramatically upped its provision for bad debts over fears that borrowers are poised to start defaulting on loans.

[aleman] 11/2/2017 19:58

Individuals' CCJs were up 14.9% in value and 39.5% in number in Q4. All of 2016 was up 24% in number so the granting of CCJ's would appear to have accelerated significantly in Q4 - even more so for just December when they were up 45.1%.

[aleman] 11/2/2017 15:09

Https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/feb/10/are-car-loans-driving-us-towards-the-next-financial-crash

[aleman] 09/2/2017 12:57

A record number of East Anglian companies are getting into financial distress. Despite banks going easy on them so far, insolvency numbers are likely to increase in 2017.



Business rate increases to drive up Scottish insolvencies

[aleman] 09/2/2017 08:04

There's been an endless list of small and medium-sized companies missing forecasts or issuing weak guidance in the US in the last 24 hours - probably well over 50. It seems to be deteriorating week by week over there. Check it out:

[aleman] 08/2/2017 18:01

US gasoline sales plummet, indicating recession?

[aleman] 08/2/2017 09:14

Begbies join the Association of Short Term Lenders.

[aleman] 07/2/2017 13:24

UK coming under more budgetary pressure as economy slows?

[aleman] 07/2/2017 10:15

And the disadvantages of the weaker £? There is no such thing as a free lunch.


I hope you are right but warnings from UKMail, DX., BT, Verizon and ATT suggest problems in mail and telecoms, which tend to reflect the wider economy. In the US, Amazon and Master Card have reduced guidance and there has been a growing stream of profit warnings. UK transport fuel sales recently flattened off after strong growth. Add in rising defaults, rising interest rates, new BTL restrictinos, rising import costs and rising taxes (car tax) in the next few months and things look set to weaken significantly in the next couple of quarters. Credit card debt can't keep growing at 11%, especially if rates rise to cover the increasing defaults. Political uncertainty is eating away at the recent strength in consumer confidence. The reports posted earlier on this thread suggest the corner has turned on both personal and corporate insolvencies. Zopa's default rates have already nearly reached the highs of the last recession and Secure Trust Bank have withdrawn from unsecured lending due to increasing default risk, as they did last in 2007. It's generally credit cycles that drive things and they are going the wrong way.The expansion of subprime lending seems to be over as increasing write-offs there are starting to show up in bank numbers.

[bonio10000] 07/2/2017 09:59

The J Curve indicates that the benefits of a weaker pound take 9 months to flow through.

In the short term buying patterns are largely stuck and take time to adjust. So in a few months exports should really take off together with domestic substitution for exports.

[aleman] 07/2/2017 09:47

Ernst and Young's report is subtitled "The Calm Before the Storm". It notes a steady number of profit warnings despite the benefit of a weaker pound and warns of worse likely to come and cites reasons why.

[aleman] 31/1/2017 16:56

Only just checked back to the Q3 number of 248916. That means that companies in distress rose a hefty 11.1% on the quarter.