Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[paulypilot] 03/12/2013 18:41

Hi Rotors,

Thanks for the update, I'm a bit out-of-date with this one.

Yes, I'm long again here, have been for a little while.
It's been a disappointer in recent years, but I think there's a good business here, and it should see an upturn in business once zombie companies eventually restructure.

Although it amazes me how Deloittes always seem to pick up the big insolvency cases. I wonder what they are doing to make this happen?

Regards, Paul.

[rotors] 03/12/2013 18:25

And Caledonia do not appear as a significant shareholder any more (from BEG website).

"Other Significant Shareholders

•Allianz Global Investors, 7.04% shareholding
•Hof Hoorneman Bankiers, 6.60% shareholding
•Theodoor Gilissen, 6.24% shareholding
•Heronbridge, 4.10% shareholding
•Fortelus Capital Management LLP, 3.82% (contract for difference holding)"

[rotors] 03/12/2013 18:23

Paul

I understood the Caledonia stake had been cleared some time ago. And these appear to be 'buys'?

See you are long BEG again?

Rgds.

[paulypilot] 03/12/2013 17:26

Hopefully that might be the overhang clearing? I think it was Caledonia who were gradually exiting, from memory?

P.

[c1d] 03/12/2013 16:45

Promising sign that someone is willing to take such a large quantity of stock at over 39p. It will be interesting to see what RNS's announcing changes in stakes are issued over the next few days.

[rotors] 03/12/2013 16:35

Big trade today...

16:27 - 03/12 Buy 2490245 39.24p £977,197.04

EDIT
In fact loads of stock going thru. Just pre-close: volume of 8,743,398

[speedsgh] 15/10/2013 12:45

dashton42 - good find. v interesting.

[dashton42] 15/10/2013 11:32

From today's CityAM:

[gostevie63] 01/10/2013 13:33

I was briefly thinking about taking advantage of the dip and topping up on these but I just can't see anything on the horizon that is likely to prompt a re-rating back upwards any time soon.

Happy to hold for now and enjoy the generous dividend but it goes xd on 9th October and may sell after then if I see anything that is likely to bring a quicker return with a view to jumping back in to BEG on any forthcoming positive news.

[c1d] 01/10/2013 12:48

As usual Paul Scott's analysis is well balanced and informative.
I think it remains a question of when Begbies markets pick up rather than if, although it seems like this is not going to be anytime soon. I am still happy to be patient and wait rather than risk missing the boat (when it finally arrives!).

[asagi] 01/10/2013 12:00

You can find a link to Paul Scott's analysis on the trading statement here:

hxxp://paulypilot.blogspot.co.uk/

Asagi (long BEG)

[speedsgh] 17/9/2013 09:11

From a purely technical perspective, looking at the long-term chart is this a big bowl in the making? If so, there is multi-bagger potential. I'm personally invested here for the income but the potential share price growth does add an extra dimension. Assuming that the economy continues to recover, BEG should be a major beneficiary so the fundamentals would suggest the bowl is a possibility. Happy to add on weakness.

[dashton42] 13/9/2013 17:46

Yes - it'll be a shock to all of us when interest rates start to rise as the recovery beds in - not just zombie companies! Good for savers, though.

Although the share price has fallen back today, the chart still looks good to me, and I think it's got to be good to be in a company like this at this stage of the cycle - and maybe ahead of other investors once they start cottoning onto what's happening...

[c1d] 13/9/2013 13:21

Thanks dashton42, an interesting read.
I believe it is normal in recoveries for the number of insolvencies to increase for the reasons set out in the article. Intuitively, it might be expected that they would drop, but the data shows that this is not the case because of the increased working capital required to take advantage of the upturn.
My gut feel tells me that this trend could be more pronounced this time around because of the length of the downturn and exceptionally low interest rates I guess we have all got used to. I am a great believer in mean reversion so the longer things run below trend the sharper I expect the snap back towards the historic average to be.
A shame for those employed by weak firms but good news for Begbies. I hope that anyone who loses their job quickly find employment with stronger firms who are managing to expand. This might include me!

[speedsgh] 13/9/2013 13:12

dashton42 - excellent article which surely means a nice boost in business for BEG if the zombies + those in acute distress become insolvent as predicted. perhaps the recent rise in the share price is in response to the improved economic outlook factoring in a rise in insolvencies.

[dashton42] 13/9/2013 12:53

A good article on "zombies" on CNBC today:

[rotors] 06/8/2013 19:47

Probably now allowed in ISAs....from Monday 5th.

[lancasterbomber] 06/8/2013 16:49

ANY one know why the sudden rise?

[nw99] 29/7/2013 06:48

Burford Capital, an Aim-quoted group that provides finance to companies embroiled in legal disputes, has taken a stake in UK insolvency specialist, Manolete.

[asagi] 22/7/2013 14:46

Its Allianz:

5. Date of the transaction and date on
which the threshold is crossed or
reached:
18 JULY 2013
6. Date on which issuer notified:
19 JULY 2013

3,065,000 -> 6,005,000




from under 5% to 6.66%.

Asagi (long BEG)

[rotors] 22/7/2013 13:45

I am surprised no comment forthcoming - that is a huge amount of stock, all (3 presumably 'buys' at 34.5p) traded within a few minutes of each other.

Could it be Caledonia buying back in??

Or maybe a fund positioning for the new AIM / ISA inclusion laws wef August?

I am happy to be long here.

[asagi] 22/7/2013 13:32

You could ring the company secretary and ask for the answer. There would be no legal obligation to say but the share register can be examined by any member of the public so a refusal would be moot.

However, the buyer may have expressed some desire to accumulate more stock. In that case, being smoked out now could be to everybody's (pretty much everybody) detriment so you might get the cold shoulder.

Asagi (long BEG)

[dashton42] 22/7/2013 07:14

Yes, it would be interesting to know who picked up the 3.4m shares on the 18th... Anyone got L2?

[finkie] 19/7/2013 14:49

6,000,000 shares I should cocoa! whats occurring here then, marginally more than the normal 3 shares that get traded daily with BEG?!