Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[adipsia1] 11/12/2024 17:52

Good to see some positive price movements at last on BEG. At least long-term downtrend appears to be to have ended and some short-term trends are in place.

[doobz] 11/12/2024 12:50

Lots of wider factors to take into account from January, if Ukraine clears up won’t be too bad but UK still set back under labour I believe. BEG for me is now operating as a hedge for portfolio. Bought at very lows and added today
Best of luck

[suetballs] 11/12/2024 11:24

Thanks Doobz - made me smile.
So beg will be ok - it's just the rest of my portfolio!
Suet

[doobz] 11/12/2024 11:10

Suetballs - we’ve still got 3 years of labour destroying uk Business’

You’ll be absolutely fine I reckon

[suetballs] 11/12/2024 09:37

Nice to see us back over 100p - but I'm 126p for breakeven and that feels a distance away.
But at least there's progress.
Suet

[edmundshaw] 10/12/2024 11:21

Good solid results yet again. Having held this for 9 years now I cannot recall being disappointed by results. Nice to be able to buy back a few under £1 after its forays above 150p in 2022; expect us to get there again soon.

[rivaldo] 10/12/2024 10:40

Good results imo too.

Canaccord have raised their target price slightly to 150p (from 148p).

Forecast EPS rises to 10.4p EPS (from 10.2p EPS) due to the share buybacks, and they see "upside risk" to those forecasts:

"Valuation and Recommendation

Given the strength of H1'25, and what we see as a very supportive macro outlook, we see ongoing upside risk to forecasts in the short-term. Over the medium-term, we would not be surprised to see this accelerate via further accretive bolt-on acquisitions. Our valuation methodology remains unchanged and we continue to value Begbies at 14.5x CY25E P/E, which is a 10% premium to its 10-year average P/E multiple. We believe this is justified by the company's strong prospects at the current point in the cycle. Our new target price is 150p (prev: 148p), +59% implied upside. Maintain BUY."

[martinmc123] 10/12/2024 10:14

4*
Begbies Traynor the professional services consultancy posted half year results for the six months ended 31 October 2024 this morning and performance was robust. Revenue growth was 16% (11% organic, 5% acquired) to £76.3m fuelling adjusted EBITDA growth of 20% to £15.3m. Adjusted profit before tax growth was 16% to 311.5m while statutory PBT was up from £3.0m to £4.7m. Growth was broad based with double digit organic...from WealthOracle

wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/BEG/1074

[aleman] 10/12/2024 09:02

These results were very good if the disproportionate increase in lock-up (as yet unbilled work already booked on time sheets) is nothing to worry about. Rising lock-up has been a theme in the legal industry that has been causing a bit of head scratching for investors. The rise here above trend equates to a £3m+ hit to receivables and , ultimately, cashflow. I fancy it is not a problem and will swing back at some point but it wants a question at the AGM if it doesn't. So, the results look good, and possibly very good. The share price looks very cautious for a company that looks likely double in size in 4 or 5 years.

[edmonda] 10/12/2024 07:46

Today BEG reports a further 16% rise in H1 adj PBT, having grown it six-fold in the last decade.
Ratings look too low in that context and in new deep-dive report we set Fair Value at 145p/share
Read note/hear summary below, free access:

[zangdook] 02/12/2024 09:40

But not a word about the price.

[edmonda] 02/12/2024 08:31

Another neat bolt-on today as @BegbiesTrnGroup buys White Maund Insolvency Practitioners who will add to BEG's existing 20 strong team in Brighton

[adipsia1] 20/11/2024 14:54

BEG and FRP may seem superficially similar but the profitability attached to the work referred to them differs greatly. FRP typically are referred larger Administrations which will involve restructuring and turnaround scenarios, whereas BEGs forte is liquidations of companies for whom there is no hope. BEG do receive Administrations but they tend to be smaller, less complex and therefore less profitable. BEGs perception amongst lenders and stakeholders who would refer work, is cheap and cheerful undertakers; FRPs reputation tends to be one where they have the skills and experience to undertake complex refinancing, restructuring or business sales leading to their patient surviving... hence the discrepancy between both companies profit margins.

[aleman] 20/11/2024 14:10

FRP does larger insolvencies and insolvencies seem to be moving up the value chain. I'd guess BEG can only do so many small insolvencies and then its pipeline will just get longer. FRP's pipeline will get lomger too but it will then prioritise/cherry pick the bigger ones that make most money? I don't think BEG has the admin structure to deal with many bigger ones? It's a large network of small offices, though some of the more recent acquisitions and rationalisation seem to be introducing a small amount of centralisation. However, they also brought diversification into cyclical busineses, so BEG is not as countercyclical as it used to be. So I'd guess both will grow in time but FRP's will be slightly more front-loaded as the downturn spreads and BEG might do better when normal growth resumes - or perhaps I should say IF normal growth resumes ...

[c3479z1] 20/11/2024 13:28

how does frp do better than beg, are they all that different businesses?

[adipsia1] 20/11/2024 08:15

Stunning interims from FRP again this morning.

[boonkoh] 18/11/2024 15:18

Someone's in a snippy mood today :p

[eezymunny] 18/11/2024 12:51

I'm glad I'm not invested in the Boon fund if you hadn't read this already :)

[boonkoh] 18/11/2024 12:49

Thanks for this! Also found the section after digging to satisfy my curiosity after my post.For me the key is that H2-CY23 and 2024 so far has been less acquisitions in terms of £ value. So we should quickly be approaching the decline of deferred consideration payments, in FY26? Management should be helpful and provide a yearly view of FY26-28 of what they expect the £20m-ish of expected payments to be.

[eezymunny] 18/11/2024 12:27

Boonkoh.

From the annual report

"there are further liabilities based on the sale and purchase agreements which are contingent on future financial and other performance conditions, as detailed below:

Recognised as a liability £5,946
Anticipated future liability based on current financial performance £13,137

Total current estimate of anticipated future payments £19,083 20,989 (sum of the two above)

The maximum potential payment (if all performance conditions are met) would be £36.4m. Management consider the likelihood of full payment to be remote."

So, around £20m expected as future payments.

If you consider that as debt with a very rapid repayment profile, you might reduce the PE ratio you're prepared to pay here by 1 or 2 IMO.

So you could consider current PE to be 10 or 11 for the current year (debt free). Quite cheap I think. Lots of far worse businesses on far higher ratios. I reckon PE 14+ would be reasonable but each to their own...

[martinmc123] 18/11/2024 12:00

4*
Begbies Traynor Group plc, the professional services consultancy, issued a strong HY trading update for the six months ended 31 October 2024. Revenue and adjusted profit before tax increased by c.16%, with a good balance of organic and acquired growth, free cash flow increased by c.8%. Management sound optimistic. Ric Traynor, Executive Chairman noted "We have made a very good start to the year with double digit growth in revenue and profits driven by positive momentum across the group...from WealthOracle

wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/BEG/989

[boonkoh] 18/11/2024 09:25

Frustratingly, they provided zero guidance on the future profile of deferred consideration still outstanding.This is the key. For a 10.5-11p EPS, we should be looking at a 11-12x PE at least (115-133p share price). Possibly more to 13x or 14x PE.However, the market is punishing Begbies for poor cashflow. This is because of the huge lumps of deferred consideration paid. This will fall off quickly, given the big acquisitions are now a few years ago now. But Begbies is giving almost zero visibility of the future cashflow profile in te next few years of these considerations.(I hold in the Boon Fund)

[edmonda] 18/11/2024 07:35

H1 update shows good growth again , with both revenues and adj PBT seen 16% higher.

Strong performance delivered by each of the two core divisions, and Board confident of matching full year expectations.

Results 10 Dec

[aleman] 17/11/2024 14:46

Smallcap insolvencies don't seem to be easing at all but the more cyclical property arm might be getting a slight boost from modest price increases and higher tranaction levels. BEG always seem to beat forecasts marginally but I'm looking for a slightly more marginal beat than normal. Nothing dramatic, just something that might see forecasts nudged up and generate enough cash to bring forward the next acquisition by a few months. The next one can't be far away and they usually see forecasts nudged up, too.

[suetballs] 17/11/2024 10:27

Good luck Bolton - I have no appetite for more. If fact I don’t have much appetite for the uk markets at all.
Suet