Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[weatherman] 15/6/2016 15:40

Edison have 14Ghz capacity at $336m on Hylas 1 and 2 = $2000 per Mhz per month. 40% of this is ~$135m. I think the cash breakeven figure includes depreciation.

[qs99] 15/6/2016 15:32

heading towards 80p+ IMO...

[dangersimpson2] 15/6/2016 14:43

weatherman,

Read what seball quoted again:

Edison in their report dated 4th February 2016 pick up on this point "An average fill rate of c 40% on HYLAS 1 and HYLAS 2 is needed for cash break-even before capex, which we expect to be achieved by the end of FY18."

i.e. not HYLAS 2B/3/4, which won't be 40% utilised by 2018 having just launched in 2017.

If Edison are basing it on $135m then it is even further out of reach.

Gross margins may increase but they cannot go above 100%!

Do the maths yourself. If we assume gross margins go from 40% to 60% and cash B/E is $135m then B/E revenue is $225m = 135/0.6. Since this corresponds to 40% utilisation the theoretical maximum at full utilisation revenue is $563m. Given that the current 25-30% utilisation implies $230m revenue at full utilisation then Edison are modelling Avanti increasing their pricing to c2.5 x the current rate. Given that we know from other satellite operators that pricing is under pressure do you think this is realistic? I don't.

[weatherman] 15/6/2016 14:15

DS2 - your figures ignore the capacity on Hylas 2B, Hylas 3 and Hylas 4 - this will more than triple existing capacity. Also as pointed out, gross margins will rise as utilisation rises as customers can be added with little increase in costs. The Edison note is also looking for cash breakeven at $135m, not your $99m.

[qs99] 15/6/2016 14:08

chugging along nicely whatever you believe. month ago it was nearer £1, but performance indicators are moving in the right direction IMO....maybe people are prepared to take a medium term punt?

[dangersimpson2] 15/6/2016 13:39

It is impossible for them to be at cash flow break even at 40% utilisation at current pricing.

Based on their published utilisation rates of 25-30% and last HY revenue, revenue at full utilisation is about $230m. This means 40% utilisation = $92m revenue. Even at 100% Gross Margin this is less than costs:

$92m < Interest ($64m) + Admin Costs ($35m) = $99m.

(And they have never managed to achieve more than 45% Gross Margin in the past.)

If you are basing your investment on Edison's calculations you are in for a big shock in the future.

[seball] 15/6/2016 13:26

When does AVN reach cash break even
"One of the most-watched market developments in the commercial satellite telecommunications market today is these new high-throughput satellitesÃ&cent;â‚&not;â„&cent; effect on traditional satellite capacity.

Eutelsat on May 12 issued a profit and revenue warning that was based in part on evidence that competitorsÃ&cent;â‚&not;â„&cent; high-throughput satellites were taking future business away from EutelsatÃ&cent;€;â„¢;s conventional widebeam satellites for certain data applications. ââ;‚¬Å“Market demand for high-throughput Ka-band satellite capacity across EMEA [Europe, the Middle East and Africa] is strong,â;€ï¿&frac12; Avanti said. ââ;‚¬Å“Avanti continues to secure new high-quality customers, particularly in the large telco and government sectors, where sales cycles are long but contract value is high. ââ;‚¬Å“This success is being driven by either migration from more expensive and lower-capability legacy systems, or the ability of high-quality Ka-band networks to grow the market for new satellite applications,Ã;¢â&sbquo;¬ï¿½ Avanti said.

Operators have said high-throughput satellites should be judged by a new set of key performance indicators, and that satellite fill rate is no longer a relevant metric. Avanti, for example, has said for the past year that its fleet is between 25 percent and 30 percent full ââ;‚¬â€œ a level that conventional satellite operators would view as intolerable. For these businesses, a fill rate of 75 percent or higher is the goal."
hxxp://spacenews.com/avanti-promises-revenue-acceleration-new-ka-band-over-europe-by-june/

Edison in their report dated 4th February 2016 pick up on this point "An average fill rate of c 40% on HYLAS 1 and HYLAS 2 is needed for cash break-even before capex, which we expect to be achieved by the
end of FY18." (www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=15771)

Edison again in their later report say that they believe that Hylas 3 expenditure is now mostly complete and that Hylas 4 is 80% complete. (

So if the analysts are correct AVN does not need 75% plus fill rates but only 40% for cashflow breakeven. On recent performance they should be achieving this capacity level in about 12 mths. The Edison report could not have anticipated a win of the size of the EE contract hence their later date.

By cashflow breakeven I mean that they are covering all outflows including interest. This is of course not suddenly achieved on day 365 as they will build towards it from day 1. The importance of this is that operational cash outflows should start dropping now and Q4 results should show this happening. If this is so the share price could move substantially from present levels as the market wakes up to the fact that AVN is actually disrupting the traditional market as it operates on an entirely different cost model

[andy] 15/6/2016 12:50

Sphere,

well said, spot on.....

[bookbroker] 15/6/2016 12:20

Difficult market to raise any capital or arrange a loan facility with Brexit looming, those $71mln. going to cost a lot more to the co. should we leave!

[seball] 15/6/2016 12:03

Trading update was on the 16th May which is half way through Q4. They would not have reiterated guidance for Q4 if they were not confident.Expecting the share price to be alot higher than today on confirmation of Q4 results.

[wiseacre] 15/6/2016 12:01

Quite right Sphere. I too prefer the spherical ball. Excellent opportunity here to increase one's short position as I have just done.

[weatherman] 15/6/2016 11:57

In a few weeks time we'll see the final quarter revenue...if they can do $35-40m then that will cover non-cap ex costs. Their non cap-ex out goings next year are forecast to be $10m.

From the last quarter they had $120m, and an estimated cap ex of $90m to finish Hylas 4. So headroom of $30m plus a $71m loan facility.

my estimates - dyor

[weatherman] 15/6/2016 11:26

The turning point will be statement on end of year revenue in early July....

[new tech] 15/6/2016 11:12

Edison - Buy - target 427p
Natixis - Buy - target 300.00p
Cenkos - Buy - target 700p
Jefferies - Buy - target 285p
Natixis - Buy - target 370p
Beaufort - Speculative buy

[new tech] 15/6/2016 10:46

sphere the thing is that revenues are increasing steadily and will accellerate very rapidly from next year, while costs will remain relatively level (so the debt can be reduced and they can start paying a dividend) and the share price is cheap relative to peers and recent buyouts. There is also a good chance of a take-over by one of the other players more reliant on the older technology.

[sphere25] 15/6/2016 09:59

They're all a bunch of muppet institutional fund manglers. Folk like me manage their own money and no way in hell would I invest my own funds here, let alone the general public's funds.

This is the oversold spike I referred to earlier, this is the opportunity to get out. This spike will wear off, flatten and then the stock will head onto make new lows as the debt pile takes central focus again.

[seball] 15/6/2016 08:57

Avanti has a impressive list of institutional share holders. They can see value here also.
Avanti Communications is listed in London on AIM (AVN:LSE). On 10th May 2016 Avanti had 147,396,350 shares in issue. Key investors were: M&G Investment Management (18.6%), Solus (11.4%), MAST (10.2%), Capital Group (5.9%), PAR Capital (5.7%), GIC (4.6%), Caledonia (4.3%), Four Capital (2.9%), Hargreaves Lansdown (2.9%) and Charles Stanley (2.9%). Directors and employees held (7.5%) of the shares in issue

[seball] 15/6/2016 08:55

Agree I can see some consolidation in the sector. A takeover or merger is likely at some point as the likes of Inmarsat take advantage of the Avanti low share price. All in my opinion no investment advice intended. Please do your own research. Good luck

[new tech] 15/6/2016 08:46

Edison current valuation of AVN at 427p.

[new tech] 15/6/2016 08:42

Looks like a sound investment with revenues steadily increasing, launch of a new satellite next year that will tripple capacity and peer buyouts in the billions.

[malcolmmm] 15/6/2016 08:32

I wonder if Tom W got his pinkies burnt here, he used to ramp these to £16
Before decamping,

[sg31] 14/6/2016 19:04

seball s most likely paid to post about AVN....as are one or two other recent posters.