Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[dice1950] 13/6/2016 16:38

EDRS IN ACTION – LEADING LASER DATA RELAY SYSTEM TESTED AGAIN BY ESA !
Posted on: June 3, 2016 at 9:01 pm,
EDRS in action – leading laser data relay system tested again by ESA !
European Data Relay System reached first truly milestone on way of its development – first pictures were transmitted from Copernicus Satellite.

[dice1950] 13/6/2016 16:14

Avanti Communications (AVN) Investec Wealth & Investment



Avanti Communications (AVN) SA opens giant solar plant
12th June 2016


Avanti Communications (AVN) successful trials in the maritime, aviation and agricultural sectors
12th June 2016


Natixis Gives Avanti Communications Group PLC Price Target With Potential NEAR 600% Upside
13th June 2016

Natixis gave the share price of Avanti Communications Group PLC a price target of 300 meaning the broker expects a potential upside of Nearly 600% from Avanti Communications Group ...

[dice1950] 13/6/2016 16:08

Last chance under 60p

[chriscallen] 13/6/2016 14:56

I really do wish that both sides of this debate about the value of AVN would post new news. Simply posting what everybody has known for weeks, if not months, does not in the least make a convincing case. What I want to see is evidence of sales contracts i.e. contracts signed today not two months ago. Old contracts are interesting but do not affect today's price... we all know (or ought to) about them.

[dice1950] 13/6/2016 14:20

Avanti Communications (AVN) Jefferies and Cenkos significant breakthrough

[dice1950] 13/6/2016 13:42

Avanti Communications Retweeted
Dr James Davies MP ‏@jamesdaviesmp
Moira Gelder of Rhuallt now has @Avanti_plc satellite broadband. Govt grants available when poor fixed line service.

[apfindley] 13/6/2016 12:22

You forget to mention the *£289 million of net debt*That should dampen the finances for several years on gross revenues of just 19 million.

[seball] 13/6/2016 12:12

427p price target
Avanti has reported Q3 trading that not only allows it to maintain its guidance for revenue growth, delivering a positive EBITDA in Q3, but clearly indicates a path towards free cash generation. With contract momentum building with high quality customers, recurring revenues are growing, satellite capex is almost complete and the financing facilities nearing finalisation appear more than sufficient to execute the plan. As this progress becomes more widely appreciated, we expect the share price to be released from its shackles and start to trend towards cash-based fair values. Our own capped DCF still returns a fair value of 427p per share.

[dice1950] 13/6/2016 10:48

10-Jun-1616:35:Buy* 0.00100.00 122.99k


13-Jun-1610:31:4854.3310,000Buy* 53.5054.505,433O


13-Jun-1610:29:4954.3310,000Buy* 53.5054.505,433O


13-Jun-1609:51:2654.1820,000Buy* 53.5054.5010.84kO


13-Jun-1609:47:3654.1810,000Buy* 53.5054.505,418O


13-Jun-1609:45:4754.1810,000Buy* 53.5054.505,418O


13-Jun-1609:44:1954.1810,000Buy* 53.5054.505,418O


13-Jun-1609:42:1454.181,000Buy* 53.5054.50541.80O


13-Jun-1609:34:3754.1810,000Buy* 53.5054.505,418

[seball] 13/6/2016 10:39

Agree there is a buyer hoovering up the shares at present. Buying in 10k lots.

[seball] 13/6/2016 10:38

"SES has announced its intention to buy the outstanding 49.5% minority in O3b, the medium earth orbit (MEO) Ka-band high throughput satellite (HTS) constellation. SES is paying $2.6bn in EV (including $1.2bn of 9.5% coupon debt) and is to complete the outstanding $600m capex programme to deploy the fleet. The purchase represents an EV/sales multiple of 26x expected FY16 revenues. The valuation has interesting read across to Avanti as it reflects the value the industry is placing on the newer HTS players. The FY16e Avanti EV/sales multiple is just 6x. Our view remains that as the market recognises the ability of Avanti to execute its plan to reach a highly cash generative phase from mid-2018, this value gap should close. That implies substantial upside for Avanti shares."

"The O3b network is a MEO constellation of Ka-band satellites that is being deployed to provide HTS connectivity. SES has announced the deal in the teeth of market concerns over satellite capacity pricing, which we feel relate to the more expensive established Ku-band capacities being disrupted by the new HTS Ka-band entrants such as Avanti. This has led to recent profit warnings and share price weakness for some of the more mature FSS providers. While the ability to more attractively refinance the business is clear, it also suggests SES may regard the timing as a value opportunity following recent sector turbulence and having marginally increased its stake to a majority only in late April. Avanti has established a leading position as the only listed pure Ka-band HTS player with a geostationary earth orbits (GEO) satellite network, with $1.2bn of assets already deployed. A large capacity satellite (HYLAS4) is on track for launch in 2017 completing Avanti’s capex, tripling revenue potential and significantly strengthening cash flow."

[value viper] 13/6/2016 10:32

this is all speculation but would possibly explain how quiet co has been over past few weeks. they may have been working on this post the May t / statement when of course the price was much higher. the mkt may have been suspicious (leaky) in the interim hence the slippage BUT maybe 50p was the level when the shares wee 85p plus and that is why we find ourselves here now BUT wtdik.....interesting to ponder it all.

[dangersimpson2] 13/6/2016 10:27

But would they get 50p away with the share price now around that level? If I was underwriting I'd baulk at that level now.

Still think a combination of debt for equity & rights issue makes more sense than a simple placing. The dilution is higher but it would be easier to agree the price without too big a discount and would put the company on a more sustainable footing. Shareholders who still believe in the company could put money in to retain their holding and pay off some of the debt and then participate in any upside.

[hpcg] 13/6/2016 10:15

Yes, I'm certainly short. However with this sudden interest I am now watching the price action carefully.

Incidentally dice1950, you'll remember this RNS well?



or this one?



or this one?





The one above was the relative biggy - two tranches above his usual 10,000 share purchase.

I do as I was long at the time of all of those. One thing I've learnt from my experience with Avanti is that a Paul Walsh director buy is no indication whatsoever that the share price will rise. Not that his director purchasing is reserved for AVN; HSBA, ULVR, DGE, CMP and erm RM2, also get the £25,000 treatment.

[value viper] 13/6/2016 10:11

50p possible fundraise has a round number ring about about it IF indeed it is actually going on............

[dice1950] 13/6/2016 09:54

20k buyers now

[dice1950] 13/6/2016 09:53

TAKING AIM: Edison Says Avanti On Path For Free Cash Generation

16 May 2016

AVANTI COMMUNICATIONS GROUP PLC

Q3 2016 Trading Update

Quarterly growth momentum continues

Avanti Communications Group plc ("Avanti" or "the Group"), a leading provider of satellite data communications services in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, issues the following trading update for the period ended 31 March 2016.

Highlights

-- Third quarter revenue was $19.5m representing 14.7% growth versus the second quarter on a constant currency basis

-- Full year guidance re-affirmed and underpinned by strong contract win momentum
-- Period end cash balance was $122.4m
-- HYLAS 4 remains on target for launch with early pre-sales already signed


RNS Number : 3544Y

Avanti Communications Group Plc

16 May 2016

AVANTI COMMUNICATIONS GROUP PLC

Director Shareholding

Avanti Communications Group plc, a leading provider of satellite data communications services in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, has been informed that Paul Walsh, Chairman, purchased 25,000 ordinary shares in the Company at a price of 89.5 pence per ordinary share on 16 May 2016. Following this transaction, Mr Walsh now holds an interest of 230,000 ordinary shares in the Company, being approximately 0.2% of the issued ordinary share capital of the Company.

[dice1950] 13/6/2016 09:52

as the 10k buys roll in more bashers arrive oh dear dear burn baby burn

[bwakem] 13/6/2016 09:47

Yes it looks like an emergency fund raise could be in progress. Given the state of the company I doubt there'll be many buy-and-hold institutions taking part so I expect quite a bit of forward selling.

[dice1950] 13/6/2016 09:41

not new my friend just an investor but shorters are easy spotted .lol

[hpcg] 13/6/2016 09:37

With the quantity of ramping from new posters, and the PR is the press, I can only surmise that the efforts to raise equity are in motion. Pity that most other posters here are short and waiting for that event to close.

[seball] 13/6/2016 09:29

427p price target
Avanti has reported Q3 trading that not only allows it to maintain its guidance for revenue growth, delivering a positive EBITDA in Q3, but clearly indicates a path towards free cash generation. With contract momentum building with high quality customers, recurring revenues are growing, satellite capex is almost complete and the financing facilities nearing finalisation appear more than sufficient to execute the plan. As this progress becomes more widely appreciated, we expect the share price to be released from its shackles and start to trend towards cash-based fair values. Our own capped DCF still returns a fair value of 427p per share.

[seball] 13/6/2016 09:22

When does AVN reach cash break even
"One of the most-watched market developments in the commercial satellite telecommunications market today is these new high-throughput satellites’ effect on traditional satellite capacity.

Eutelsat on May 12 issued a profit and revenue warning that was based in part on evidence that competitors’ high-throughput satellites were taking future business away from Eutelsat’s conventional widebeam satellites for certain data applications. “Market demand for high-throughput Ka-band satellite capacity across EMEA [Europe, the Middle East and Africa] is strong,� Avanti said. “Avanti continues to secure new high-quality customers, particularly in the large telco and government sectors, where sales cycles are long but contract value is high. “This success is being driven by either migration from more expensive and lower-capability legacy systems, or the ability of high-quality Ka-band networks to grow the market for new satellite applications,� Avanti said.

Operators have said high-throughput satellites should be judged by a new set of key performance indicators, and that satellite fill rate is no longer a relevant metric. Avanti, for example, has said for the past year that its fleet is between 25 percent and 30 percent full – a level that conventional satellite operators would view as intolerable. For these businesses, a fill rate of 75 percent or higher is the goal."
hxxp://spacenews.com/avanti-promises-revenue-acceleration-new-ka-band-over-europe-by-june/

Edison in their report dated 4th February 2016 pick up on this point "An average fill rate of c 40% on HYLAS 1 and HYLAS 2 is needed for cash break-even before capex, which we expect to be achieved by the
end of FY18." (www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=15771)

Edison again in their later report say that they believe that Hylas 3 expenditure is now mostly complete and that Hylas 4 is 80% complete. (

So if the analysts are correct AVN does not need 75% plus fill rates but only 40% for cashflow breakeven. On recent performance they should be achieving this capacity level in about 12 mths. The Edison report could not have anticipated a win of the size of the EE contract hence their later date.

By cashflow breakeven I mean that they are covering all outflows including interest. This is of course not suddenly achieved on day 365 as they will build towards it from day 1. The importance of this is that operational cash outflows should start dropping now and Q4 results should show this happening. If this is so the share price could move substantially from present levels as the market wakes up to the fact that AVN is actually disrupting the traditional market as it operates on an entirely different cost model.