Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[weatherman] 09/6/2016 17:32

Well - marginally up all day on some largish buys, and then down at the final whistle.

[aa29] 09/6/2016 16:29

A trip down memory lane - some more paid for research, prepared in consultation with Avanti.

[weatherman] 09/6/2016 15:25

I'm not ramping AVN, but post links to material on the web, and trying to challenge the derampers.

[dice1950] 09/6/2016 15:07

Avanti Communications/AVN

Edison TV | Fixed Satellite Services | 31/05/2016

[accrillium] 09/6/2016 13:15

weatherman, i do not wish to be drawn in to a faith based argument, especially as i could argue that you are deliberately decieving potential investors with your constant ramping of a company that is only going one way and has been for 5 years. As for the thread i set up, you can thank michaelmouse for that, its purpose was to show him for what he is, a liar and deciever, a job well done even if i say so myself. I note he no longer attempts to ramp avn but he has tried ramping trak8.

[weatherman] 09/6/2016 12:42

There have been some big buys going into AVN the past few days. I guess there is an overhang of stock, when that is cleared it will begin to rise towards end of year announcement in early July. imo.

[newtothisgame3] 09/6/2016 12:01

20k buyer loading up

[seball] 09/6/2016 11:57

"SES has announced its intention to buy the outstanding 49.5% minority in O3b, the medium earth orbit (MEO) Ka-band high throughput satellite (HTS) constellation. SES is paying $2.6bn in EV (including $1.2bn of 9.5% coupon debt) and is to complete the outstanding $600m capex programme to deploy the fleet. The purchase represents an EV/sales multiple of 26x expected FY16 revenues. The valuation has interesting read across to Avanti as it reflects the value the industry is placing on the newer HTS players. The FY16e Avanti EV/sales multiple is just 6x. Our view remains that as the market recognises the ability of Avanti to execute its plan to reach a highly cash generative phase from mid-2018, this value gap should close. That implies substantial upside for Avanti shares."

"The O3b network is a MEO constellation of Ka-band satellites that is being deployed to provide HTS connectivity. SES has announced the deal in the teeth of market concerns over satellite capacity pricing, which we feel relate to the more expensive established Ku-band capacities being disrupted by the new HTS Ka-band entrants such as Avanti. This has led to recent profit warnings and share price weakness for some of the more mature FSS providers. While the ability to more attractively refinance the business is clear, it also suggests SES may regard the timing as a value opportunity following recent sector turbulence and having marginally increased its stake to a majority only in late April. Avanti has established a leading position as the only listed pure Ka-band HTS player with a geostationary earth orbits (GEO) satellite network, with $1.2bn of assets already deployed. A large capacity satellite (HYLAS4) is on track for launch in 2017 completing Avanti’s capex, tripling revenue potential and significantly strengthening cash flow."

[seball] 09/6/2016 11:21

When does AVN reach cash break even
"One of the most-watched market developments in the commercial satellite telecommunications market today is these new high-throughput satellites’ effect on traditional satellite capacity.

Eutelsat on May 12 issued a profit and revenue warning that was based in part on evidence that competitors’ high-throughput satellites were taking future business away from Eutelsat’s conventional widebeam satellites for certain data applications. “Market demand for high-throughput Ka-band satellite capacity across EMEA [Europe, the Middle East and Africa] is strong,� Avanti said. “Avanti continues to secure new high-quality customers, particularly in the large telco and government sectors, where sales cycles are long but contract value is high. “This success is being driven by either migration from more expensive and lower-capability legacy systems, or the ability of high-quality Ka-band networks to grow the market for new satellite applications,� Avanti said.

Operators have said high-throughput satellites should be judged by a new set of key performance indicators, and that satellite fill rate is no longer a relevant metric. Avanti, for example, has said for the past year that its fleet is between 25 percent and 30 percent full – a level that conventional satellite operators would view as intolerable. For these businesses, a fill rate of 75 percent or higher is the goal."
hxxp://spacenews.com/avanti-promises-revenue-acceleration-new-ka-band-over-europe-by-june/

Edison in their report dated 4th February 2016 pick up on this point "An average fill rate of c 40% on HYLAS 1 and HYLAS 2 is needed for cash break-even before capex, which we expect to be achieved by the
end of FY18." (www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=15771)

Edison again in their later report say that they believe that Hylas 3 expenditure is now mostly complete and that Hylas 4 is 80% complete. (

So if the analysts are correct AVN does not need 75% plus fill rates but only 40% for cashflow breakeven. On recent performance they should be achieving this capacity level in about 12 mths. The Edison report could not have anticipated a win of the size of the EE contract hence their later date.

By cashflow breakeven I mean that they are covering all outflows including interest. This is of course not suddenly achieved on day 365 as they will build towards it from day 1. The importance of this is that operational cash outflows should start dropping now and Q4 results should show this happening. If this is so the share price could move substantially from present levels as the market wakes up to the fact that AVN is actually disrupting the traditional market as it operates on an entirely different cost model.

[newtothisgame3] 09/6/2016 10:13

Imarasat and Avanti bringing Broadband Connectivity to Small Businesses in Sub-Saharan Africa
JAMES BARTON 08 JUNE 2016
hxxp://www.developingtelecoms.com/tech/satellite-networks/6554-imarasat-and-avanti-bringing-broadband-connectivity-to-small-businesses-in-sub-saharan-africa.html

Salim Suleman, Managing Director of Imarasat, commented: “Avanti [offers] a combination of reliable, high quality satellite broadband delivered as part of flexible product portfolio at a cost-effective price and with zero capital expenditure.”

[newtothisgame3] 09/6/2016 10:03

Avanti Communications (AVN) Investec Wealth & Investment
8th June 2016

[newtothisgame3] 09/6/2016 10:02

Avanti Communications (AVN) Buy Target price 207.07P Potential +260.5%

[jeffian] 09/6/2016 09:14

divinausa1,

"they have done everything they have set out to do, but the investment community seems to have deserted them for some reason."

Maybe the reason is that they did, indeed, get the sats into orbit but they've failed to get anywhere near their sales targets.

[elrico] 09/6/2016 09:11

divinausa1 - AVN have not done everything they set out to do, unless you refer to blindsiding investors!

[elrico] 09/6/2016 09:06

jeffian - Nope, it's my experience quite a lot look at charts like AVN and view this as a good punt because they assume a bounce MUST occur, we have seen posts to this effect on here. Most people will look at the chart and then dive straight into the BB and seek out positive posts to validate their punt.

[accrillium] 09/6/2016 08:53

Weatherman, may i respectfully suggest you seek advice from, say bestinvest, these guys can point you to a whole series of investment funds. You are not cut out for this personal investment game, you dont even understand a disclaimer.

[seball] 09/6/2016 06:04

Trading update was on the 16th May which is half way through Q4. They would not have reiterated guidance for Q4 if they were not confident. This has got to rise now.

[divinausa1] 09/6/2016 01:58

Im in at over 2 quid, when they had 1 satellite up there, now close to 4 and the share price 75% lower, they have done everything they have set out to do, but the investment community seems to have deserted them for some reason.

[divinausa1] 09/6/2016 01:55

maybe because of the state of the shareprice at a guess...

[hpcg] 08/6/2016 23:52

Why all this excitement about a renewed contract?

[jeffian] 08/6/2016 23:47

A glimpse at the chart in the header might give pause for thought too.