Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[andy] 14/6/2016 19:01

seeball,

Eddison are !PAID by AVN to write that!

Have you ever seen an Eddison Sell recommendation?

Ever wondered why?

[seball] 14/6/2016 18:57

All the target prices are alot higher than today's. Even the lowest is £2 a share.

[andy] 14/6/2016 18:47

Equity research analysts
Cenkos: Simon Strong (Buy, target price 700p)
Jefferies: Giles Thorne (Buy, target price 285p)
Natixis: Eric Beaudet (Buy, target price 370p)
Royal Bank of Canada: Jon Dann (Outperform, target price 200p)

-------

So these "analysts" differ by up to £5 per share!

Doesn't inspire confidence does it?

[seball] 14/6/2016 17:39

Stock here mainly held by an impressive list of Institutions. They can see value here..

Avanti Communications is listed in London on AIM (AVN:LSE). On 10th May 2016 Avanti had 147,396,350 shares in issue. Key investors were: M&G Investment Management (18.6%), Solus (11.4%), MAST (10.2%), Capital Group (5.9%), PAR Capital (5.7%), GIC (4.6%), Caledonia (4.3%), Four Capital (2.9%), Hargreaves Lansdown (2.9%) and Charles Stanley (2.9%). Directors and employees held (7.5%) of the shares in issue

[seball] 14/6/2016 17:37

Stock in short supply. Don't sell your shares cheap they are worth alot more than current price imo. This will rise rapidly as market makers need to up price for investors to sell. Im holding for 200p after results. Good luck all
.

[seball] 14/6/2016 17:35

427p price target
Avanti has reported Q3 trading that not only allows it to maintain its guidance for revenue growth, delivering a positive EBITDA in Q3, but clearly indicates a path towards free cash generation. With contract momentum building with high quality customers, recurring revenues are growing, satellite capex is almost complete and the financing facilities nearing finalisation appear more than sufficient to execute the plan. As this progress becomes more widely appreciated, we expect the share price to be released from its shackles and start to trend towards cash-based fair values. Our own capped DCF still returns a fair value of 427p per share.

[seball] 14/6/2016 17:34

Avanti Communications-Satellite Data Communication Services now Growing Revenue - AVN



"SES has announced its intention to buy the outstanding 49.5% minority in O3b, the medium earth orbit (MEO) Ka-band high throughput satellite (HTS) constellation. SES is paying $2.6bn in EV (including $1.2bn of 9.5% coupon debt) and is to complete the outstanding $600m capex programme to deploy the fleet. The purchase represents an EV/sales multiple of 26x expected FY16 revenues. The valuation has interesting read across to Avanti as it reflects the value the industry is placing on the newer HTS players. The FY16e Avanti EV/sales multiple is just 6x. Our view remains that as the market recognises the ability of Avanti to execute its plan to reach a highly cash generative phase from mid-2018, this value gap should close. That implies substantial upside for Avanti shares."

"The O3b network is a MEO constellation of Ka-band satellites that is being deployed to provide HTS connectivity. SES has announced the deal in the teeth of market concerns over satellite capacity pricing, which we feel relate to the more expensive established Ku-band capacities being disrupted by the new HTS Ka-band entrants such as Avanti. This has led to recent profit warnings and share price weakness for some of the more mature FSS providers. While the ability to more attractively refinance the business is clear, it also suggests SES may regard the timing as a value opportunity following recent sector turbulence and having marginally increased its stake to a majority only in late April. Avanti has established a leading position as the only listed pure Ka-band HTS player with a geostationary earth orbits (GEO) satellite network, with $1.2bn of assets already deployed. A large capacity satellite (HYLAS4) is on track for launch in 2017 completing Avanti’s capex, tripling revenue potential and significantly strengthening cash flow."

[seball] 14/6/2016 17:33

Buy Signal has been generated
For those of you that follow the BB website. It has now generated a buy signal. Should see this start to move now.

[hpcg] 14/6/2016 17:17

Well played yourself Specto. I do sometimes wonder in these circumstances whether I should not just close a short but immediately go long. I do occasionally do that but I don't think I can bring myself to do that here. Very nice candle today from a long perspective and I would expect some follow through.

[elrico] 14/6/2016 16:38

Wiseacre - let them have their day, some have been suffering for months, if not years. Cream rises to the top, bricks sink!

Director Talk have done a sterling job for AVN, but when this crashes, those foolish enough to pay mind to them will be not so forgiving and may end up venting their anger as some do at shareprophets.

I for one don't read Director Talk anymore, because I don't trust an organisation that appears happy to sell its readers down the river for profit. I expect open and transparency and Director Talk are not!

[wiseacre] 14/6/2016 16:24

Was once a bull of this stock when the share price was 120p. So many promises unfulfilled and so many targets missed. The whole sector is under a cloud viz Inmarsat. Debt is debt. It is worth recalling Mr McCawber:"Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen [pounds] nineteen [shillings] and six [pence], result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery." I suggest some of you people get real.

[spectoacc] 14/6/2016 15:58

Sold about half, but what a move on a -124 ftse day! Just can't resist a profit, will have to staple hands to knees to try to run the rest. Only in profit at all thanks to averaging, still not back to original buy price from the other day.

[dice1950] 14/6/2016 14:58

Avanti promises revenue acceleration, new Ka-band over Europe by June - See more at:

[seball] 14/6/2016 14:57

427p price target
Avanti has reported Q3 trading that not only allows it to maintain its guidance for revenue growth, delivering a positive EBITDA in Q3, but clearly indicates a path towards free cash generation. With contract momentum building with high quality customers, recurring revenues are growing, satellite capex is almost complete and the financing facilities nearing finalisation appear more than sufficient to execute the plan. As this progress becomes more widely appreciated, we expect the share price to be released from its shackles and start to trend towards cash-based fair values. Our own capped DCF still returns a fair value of 427p per share.

[dice1950] 14/6/2016 14:56

L2 ORDER book full of buys sell side empty 100p+

[seball] 14/6/2016 14:48

Overhang cleared now for share price to rise to 100p +

[spectoacc] 14/6/2016 14:45

@hpcg - always better to leave a little on the table for the next man.

AVN valued at option money really - and I can see the shorts getting nervous ahead of impending results, even though likely outcome is surely more obfuscation. I don't buy the "fundraising" rumours - fall seems to be on MSCI exit overhang, into which this bounce would fit nicely.

[hpcg] 14/6/2016 14:37

Thanks Specto - I missed the lows by quite a lot but it was a good run down. I do wonder if it is a forthcoming raise being forward sold and that has now finished. That would make the price 50-55p. Something is happening which I have no knowledge of, so I'm back to watching. I suspect all the good gains have been had for now so I have no eagerness to get back in.

[apfindley] 14/6/2016 14:31

Lol those price targets are very old.A lot has happened since.And why are the targets so wildly different.Vested Interest by those making up the random figures.Ramping time.

[apfindley] 14/6/2016 14:26

There's still £289 million of net debt to be considered.It will take many years to get rid of that debt, if they are even able to service it on the level of revenues they have.

[spectoacc] 14/6/2016 14:25

@hpcg - good call on the short close.

[dice1950] 14/6/2016 13:52

AVN/Avanti promises revenue acceleration, new Ka-band over Europe by June - See more at:

[bwakem] 14/6/2016 13:42

This little rampathlon is a gift to the bears. It's allowing shorts to be increased and new shorts to open at a favourable price.

[seball] 14/6/2016 12:39

INVESTMENT SUMMARY
SES has announced its intention to buy the outstanding 49.5% minority in O3b, the medium earth orbit (MEO) Ka-band high throughput satellite (HTS) constellation. SES is paying $2.6bn in EV (including $1.2bn of 9.5% coupon debt) and is to complete the outstanding $600m capex programme to deploy the fleet. The purchase represents an EV/sales multiple of 26x expected FY16 revenues. The valuation has interesting read across to Avanti as it reflects the value the industry is placing on the newer HTS players. The FY16e Avanti EV/sales multiple is just 6x. Our view remains that as the market recognises the ability of Avanti to execute its plan to reach a highly cash generative phase from mid-2018, this value gap should close. That implies substantial upside for Avanti shares

[seball] 14/6/2016 12:38

427p price target
Avanti has reported Q3 trading that not only allows it to maintain its guidance for revenue growth, delivering a positive EBITDA in Q3, but clearly indicates a path towards free cash generation. With contract momentum building with high quality customers, recurring revenues are growing, satellite capex is almost complete and the financing facilities nearing finalisation appear more than sufficient to execute the plan. As this progress becomes more widely appreciated, we expect the share price to be released from its shackles and start to trend towards cash-based fair values. Our own capped DCF still returns a fair value of 427p per share.