Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[pojscott] 17/12/2010 12:37

Everytime we have good news the share price falls a little!

[yorgi] 17/12/2010 12:37

MT I'm quite sure they will be taking that carefullly into consideration. I doubt that has escaped David Williams mind and I'm sure they have worked out the pricing as the space fills

[m.t.glass] 17/12/2010 12:32

yorgi - one of my concerns is the posibilty of them selling space too cheaply in order to look like it is quickly selling - and in order to merely maintain newsflow.

[yorgi] 17/12/2010 12:28

I imagine that would be the case MT but surely the quicker contracts are won and the new customers start using the service then the revenue will be flowing into AVN. As you rightly say end of Q1 as I would understand it.

Although some are saying that contract wins are not going to have any effect on the share price as they are factored into the SP, I disagree and as I say the faster they sell Hylas1 has got to be good. As long as Hylas2 continues to on time.

Also if sales were to go better than anticiapted and Hylas1 was selling out faster than expected then surely they would be able to sell the latter space at a premium.

[m.t.glass] 17/12/2010 12:20

"..the faster the contracts are won the faster the revenue flows.."

Presumably the revenue from contracts now being announced doesn't kick in before next Feb/March. That latest update suggested the end of calendar Q1. So a lull before income arrives - but the contract signatures all bode well - and the more that are signed Dec/Jan the bigger the income that will roll when they all kick in at the first service date. Income from later contracts will presumably kick in one by one, whereas income from these pre-service signings will presumably all start fairly simultaneously?

Though we don't know the terms that are being agreed in signing these contracts. Promised value might be tied to uptake levels?

[yorgi] 17/12/2010 11:58

But the faster the contratcs are won the faster the revenue flows. Yes between now and the new year I don't see the share price moving ahead much but come the new year with the continued flow of contracts then I don't see any reason why we won't move forward again

[paleje] 17/12/2010 11:07

I don't think these contract announcements are going to help the share price much, they are expected.

The share price might drift for a while 700 plus or minus 50p maybe more. Now's a low volume time and lots of city folk are already on hols so share price doesn't necessarily reflect true market sentiment. I suspect knockers like superg could have some small effect at times like this, some of what he says makes sense but overall I think Avanti is sound and the share price will be well up this time next year.

I'm invested, have been since the low 500s, my reason at the time was that I thought my capital could triple by some time in 2012, still think it. There are risks there always are, but Hylas 1 success has diminished them. Risk from competing technologies? Yes but it doesn't happen overnight and there will still be a place for satellite.

Whats Hylas 1 worth some day? say 40m annual
Whats Hylas 2 worth some day? They say 3x capacity, say 120m annual
That could mean 160m EBITDA from Hylas 1&2

What would be a fair market cap for that? 1bn? More? And that's not taking Hylas 3 into account. Those approx figs came from tips1 and are for some time in the future, of course you can pull them apart but that would be the case for almost any other growth company with new technology.

Are they worth 7 quid now? Depends if you're short or long but for med to long term I think they're a fair 7 quids worth and I doubt if they'll be less than 10 this time next year. Just an opinion, I'm as disappointed as anyone to see the share price drift but I don't think its alarming, just maybe some expectations were too high too soon.

[johncsimpson] 17/12/2010 10:52

Red Hot Penny Shares is correct the 'Penny' tag does seem daft. It was explained once but that explanation escapes me.

[thedingers] 17/12/2010 10:35

Johnc- that's red hot PENNY shares, right...? I know we're in a time of inflation, but that's ridiculous.

[johncsimpson] 17/12/2010 10:05

Getting so I dread a contract win . . .

[johncsimpson] 17/12/2010 08:15

This from RHPS yesterday evening:

AVANTI COMMUNICATIONS (AVN): The HYLAS 1 satellite now has all systems turned on. It has also reached geostationary orbit and the first transmissions have been received at Avanti's earth station in the UK. Launch of commercial service in Europe will be towards the end of Q1 2011, and Avanti has expressed confidence that it can meet its target of filling HYLAS 1 within three years.

Confirming the strong market interest, Avanti has signed contracts with Access Intelligence and Fitzrovia IT Services for its business internet continuity service. This is where the satellite acts as back-up to cable connectivity. Research has shown that three quarters of businesses rely upon constant internet access, but that one in three has no back-up connection in the case of failure. BUY UP TO 750p

[yorgi] 17/12/2010 07:52

Yet another contract win :-) David Williams and his team continue to come up with goods !

[share_shark] 17/12/2010 07:52

Another contract win. Well done AVN Bod.

Some good reading on Stockpedia this am.


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[chrissey] 17/12/2010 07:18

I'm serious, that's the value per share plus some goodwill thrown in and a fair discount rate.

[chrissey] 17/12/2010 07:16

that's positive, we should see a 2-3p gain on the day.

[goneawol] 17/12/2010 07:02

Contract Win

Avanti Communications (LSE: AVN), the broadband satellite operator, announces that it has signed a 5 year contract with Filiago GmbH & Co KG in Germany for the provision of satellite broadband services via its HYLAS 1 satellite, successfully launched into orbit on November 26th 2010. The contract has an initial value of more than GBP1.3million.

Filiago has one of the largest satellite broadband subscriber bases in Europe and serves a portfolio of residential and corporate customers who can now be offered an upgraded Ka band service with faster speeds and better value. Filiago has been named "Best Internet Service Provider" by the German Internet Service Providers' Association for the last three years running.

Commenting, David Williams, Avanti Chief Executive, said:

"I am delighted that Filiago as a provider of award winning broadband services has selected Avanti as its partner for further growth. Together we will ensure that homes and businesses in areas of Germany without terrestrial access to broadband will be able to get that vital connection to the Internet and set another example of how to solve the digital divide in Europe. We expect this relationship to become much larger than the first order value. "

[yorgi] 17/12/2010 00:18

They say they have no interest but I'm inclined not to believe them........Why would anyone want to spend their time trying to save other people. There is always a motive of that I'm quite sure.

[peterblok] 16/12/2010 23:19

I still worry about why someone with no financial interest in a stock who spends so much personal time diseminating his views with the masses. What are his motives?

[ib1905] 16/12/2010 19:03

Agree with all above, it's about freedom of speech and freedom of listening also. But if someone feels strongly enough to complain then why not, that's a freedom too.

[par555] 16/12/2010 18:30

Have been an investor in AVN for some years and like many was looking forward to a jump in the share price following a successfull launch. After all the 'experts' were talking £10 plus.

However I am minded of my experience with another TW favourite CEY where a similar situation applied.

It appears that the old adage about being better to travel than arrive applies again.It therefore seems a bit over the top to denegrate someone for pointing this out, even if he is a bit over persistant about it, and suggest all kinds on conspiracy theories and suggest the FSA need to investigate.We need to be able to accomodate and consider points of view that do not fit our own preferred scenario. That's what debate is about.

[blue forever] 16/12/2010 17:05

Wouldn`t it be a whole lot easier to use the filter button-after all,that`s what it`s there for!

[marksnsparkle] 16/12/2010 17:04

superg1 ... cheers for reply, alternative points of view are always worth hearing as opposed to fearing regardless of agenda ... I take them on board and then make my own mind up