Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[ianwwwhite] 08/9/2016 11:29

I believe the Deutsche analyst is female, and asked a question during the AHT briefing yesterday (webcast available via AHT website)

Interesting to note Deutsche are not listed by AHT as one of the banks who's analysts provide coverage!

[bracke] 08/9/2016 11:05

Failed to hold 1300 and yesterdays gap not quite filled yet.

Ref the Deutsche analyst. It would be interesting to know how he/she has determined 710.

[fenners66] 08/9/2016 09:41

What planet is he on? That said yesterday's buyers at 1375 are not going to be happy.

[broadwood] 08/9/2016 07:34

Deutsche analyst still maintaining SELL and TP 710.

Can't think his clients are happy.

[bracke] 07/9/2016 15:48

Good day fenners

Yes. see Post 52576.

This share has done you and others immensely well. Not many of them in a lifetime.

[fenners66] 07/9/2016 15:38

Have you closed the short yet? I sold a few this morning, but I also sold a few Monday, just collecting the CGT allowance

[bracke] 07/9/2016 15:26

Good day 2flat

I assessed it as a high probability trade. There were a number of factors that made it so. I would normally avoid trading short against a rising trend and vice versa.

I agree going long has been the correct trade.

[2flatpack] 07/9/2016 15:10

Afternoon bracke
Your a braver man than me.
I looked at it .
Then bottled out .
Well done.
I think its easier to make money long on AHT.
Cheers

[bracke] 07/9/2016 14:28

Short covered.

[broadwood] 07/9/2016 11:05

Industrial equipment rental company Ashtead Group's revenue increased as it benefited from weak sterling in the first quarter, with management saying it expected full year results to be ahead of expectations.
For the first quarter ended 31 July, total rental revenues grew 12% in generally strong end markets, lifting statutory revenues 4% to £707m at constant exchange rates compared to the same period last year, with growth in both US-based Sunbelt and the UK's A-Plant.

However, with the tailwind from the drop in sterling total statutory revenues grew 14%.

Lower gains on fleet disposals due to lower replacement expenditure were broadly offset by weakness in sterling.

Underlying profit before tax increased by 14.5% to £184m or 4% at constant exchange rates. The company said its strategy was to drive growth through greenfield openings and bolt-on acquisitions, as Sunbelt's rental only revenue increased 13% and A-Plant's by 15%.

Sunbelt's total revenue, including new and used equipment, merchandise and consumable sales, increased 4% to $853m, but jumped 15% in sterling to £610.7m.

A-Plant rental only revenue rose 15% to £75m due to increased fleet on rent with yield flat year-on-year and total revenue increased 7% to £96m.

Capital expenditure for the quarter was £328m gross and £310m net of disposal proceeds. The company spent £64m on four bolt-on acquisitions during the period to expand its footprint and diversify into specialty markets.

Net debt at 31 July was £2,348m, up from £1,804m in 2015, but fell as a proportion of EBITDA from 1.8 to 1.7. Weaker sterling increased reported debt by £197m.

Chief executive Geoff Drabble, said: "The underlying performance of the business continues to benefit from a clear and consistent strategy of organic growth supplemented by bolt-on acquisitions. In the quarter, the reported results were positively impacted by weaker sterling, £17m, but this was broadly balanced by the impact of lower gains on fleet disposals, £12m, as we reduced our replacement capital expenditure.

"We will continue to grow responsibly, adhering to the capital allocation priorities we have outlined ... Both divisions are performing well, our end markets are strong and with the benefit of weaker sterling, we expect full year results to be ahead of our expectations and the board continues to look to the medium term with confidence."

During the period, the company also bought back 1.6m ordinary shares for £17m under the share buyback programme announced which are held in treasury

[bracke] 07/9/2016 10:21

No messing with 1300 straight to the Upper Parallel where it has been held.

What next?

If you look at the 3 month chart above you will observe that when the share price moves above a major level ie. 1000, 1100, 1200 etc it likes to go back and test that level.

I have taken a short.

[slogsweep] 07/9/2016 09:17

much under rated in my view PEG .6 yet prospective PE under 15 and a 2% yield. Well managed debt on which it pays less than 2% int. ROC well above 10%. My chart shows this to get to £14-15 by year end as market wakes up.Held since 2004 at 43p

[discodave4] 07/9/2016 09:14

Excellent results as usual.Did think they would be slightly better though, but wtfdik!.DD

[fenners66] 07/9/2016 07:50

Good to be back to the ahead of expectations statement.

[broadwood] 07/9/2016 07:05

Delivered again - as usual.


Both divisions are performing well, our end markets are strong and with the benefit of weaker sterling, we expect full year results to be ahead of our expectations and the Board continues to look to the medium term with confidence

[discodave4] 06/9/2016 22:07

Any forecasts for tomorrow's Q1 results?My guess is they will beat the consensus as they did in the last quarter, so Q1 profit before tax circa ?212m, eps of about 27p - 28p (perhaps minimum 26p).Annualised this would give year end eps of about 110p, say a PE of 15, so that's a target price of ?1650.We will see!.Good Luck all holders.DD

[ali47fish] 06/9/2016 19:05

thanks Bracke

[2flatpack] 06/9/2016 13:04

Afternoon bracke .
Death wish?
I think donald duck and boris badenov ideally qualified to lead the world over this tricky juncture.
As always thanks for your thoughts.
Cheers

[bracke] 06/9/2016 11:27

Good day 2flat

"are you suggesting AHT may be returning to the good old days, of peaking on result then drop back to 150 or 200 day sma ."
====================================================================================

I wasn't thinking particularly about dropping back after the results, simply that the share price was on 'extended leave' from the SMA200 and a return 'to base' is a probability. I accept that the buyback may delay a drop but sooner or later......

"As always I live in hope ,to see donald and boris in charge."
==============================================================

You got some sort of Death Wish!!


Good day ali

The best I can do currently is refer you to my post 52552. The following is the operative part.

"I suggest that the target is likely to be the Upper Parallel at approx 1360 with resistance at 1300.

If the US decides to drop back then AHT likely to fill today's gap and test what was resistance at 1240/1250."

[ali47fish] 06/9/2016 10:44

Bracke would you be kind to translate your chart reading in terms of where the share price might go for us poor ignorants of cherts-

[2flatpack] 06/9/2016 10:35

bracke
are you suggesting AHT may be returning to the good old days, of peaking on result then drop back to 150 or 200 day sma .
Here's hoping,but I think the buyback may put a spanner in the works.
I am looking forward to tomorrows open, with my finger on the button of my spread bets.
At this share price I will hold all my share .
As always I live in hope ,to see donald and boris in charge .
That's Duck and Badenov.
Cheers

[bracke] 05/9/2016 13:10

First nudge at 1300 today.


The share price is currently 30% above its SMA200.

View a three year chart or longer and you will observe that the share price will return to its SMA200 at a maximum distance of approx 30%. I appreciate that the SMA 200 will continue moving up to reflect the price rise over the previous 200 days but it is worth keeping an eye on.

[broadwood] 05/9/2016 10:35

JP Morgan Cazenove today reaffirms its overweight investment rating on Ashtead Group PLC [LON:AHT] and raised its price target to 1340p (from 1140p).

[fenners66] 03/9/2016 01:23

The US may talk about getting rate hikes in so as to control future inflation , however much like the stated ambition of introducing rate hikes when unemployment levels had fallen sufficiently I believe that the inflation target will also be moved or forgotten about.
The US needs a higher rate of inflation to inflate away the national debt.

Anyway on to AHT and Ashtead Friday was back with a vengeance today.

Also is the clean up operation in Florida which will most likely involve Sunbelt in a big way.

[2flatpack] 02/9/2016 17:10

What a day!
What a week!
What a month!
What a six months!
Makes the previous year almost worthwhile.
Looking forward to the results next week.
I cannot understand the circus of non-farm payroll/ rate hike.
We all know the US is doing fair to OK so the FED will only hike the rate when the economy can stand it. but what the hell 0.25%!! makes little if any difference, its become a market obsession.
Back off holiday and sanity hopefully.

Cheers