Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[dayway123] 19/1/2017 13:11

Wow 27p!! There's really no justification for this price. It's also quite obvious people do take into account brokers recommendations.

[al101uk] 19/1/2017 13:10

Just for fun I thought I'd have a look at the other oil and gas companies Peal Hunt covers. None of them have a sell recommendation. In fact 8/11 get a buy rating, the remaining 3 get hold. Two of the holds and the sell are for companies that Peel Hunt does not represent (so 7/8 companies that they represent get a buy rating along with 1/4 of companies that they do not).

So who are these companies that are so much better small caps in the O&G sector?

One of them is President Energy, who many of you already know, I'm going to leave that one alone.

Ithica Energy is the company Peel Hunt recommends hold, despite being the broker, truly damning it with faint praise.

The first one I looked at properly was Chariot Oil, a company that has a market cap of £17 million, has plunged from £2 to 8p in the last 5 years and has yet to produce a single barrel of oil. They have burned through $10 million of their $40 million cash pile in the last 6 months and plan to drill 3 wells in the next two years with bets being taken that it will be towards the end of this year/next year when the drill bit finally hits the ground. I'm guessing PH aren't too worried about issuing buy recommendations on speculative punts.

And then I stumbled upon Faroe Petroleum, I'd be interested in comments on this one, as far as I can see there is reasonable comparisons to be made here. Peel Hunt have a target of 120p on them, they trade at around 100p right now.

So Net Cash £68 million
Market Cap £370 million
2016 expected production to come in at 7-9K boepd with operating costs at $23 per barrel. 57 mmboe on P2 reserves. Based in Norway/UK so less political risk than us. They are more diversified than us and the estimated production is down on 2015 because of upgrade work on one their rigs. So basically normalized rate would come in at 10K bopd. Plenty of prospective production to come too with 3 new areas just awarded.
The risks I can see are twofold, they are receiving generous tax breaks which will help their bottom line right now but won't last forever and they engage in hedging, both of which obscure their underlying profitability and it seems like a lot of work to uncover the real numbers when I don't currently intend to buy. A very interesting comparison though and I'd be interested in any views from anyone who's looked at this one.

Just as reminder we're sat on a £330 million market cap with poor corporate governance, still merely on the promise of reduced opex, in a politically less stable environment with far less in reserves and a large uplift in production required to meet our promised 7.5k bopd. If you deduct cash ($51 million (£41 million) vs £68 million) we're trading at a very similar level.

I know there is lots of blue sky but on a relative basis are we really worth an amount so close to the current market cap of Faroe?

I started writing this before I looked at Faroe, I wasn't expecting it to end this way :-(

[currypasty] 19/1/2017 10:07

chunky sells this morning. I guess the broker note hasn't helped..

[blackdown2] 18/1/2017 18:17

A number of chunky trades again today. Not sure what this implies - maybe nothing at all, but seems to have been a pattern since the start of the New Year.

[big7ime] 18/1/2017 16:53

Pointless, They no doubt want more stock
Next week a Buy again?
Who takes notice of brokers these days? Best bet is to do the opposite

[dayway123] 18/1/2017 16:52

Thank Mr Carmichael.

[kerri28] 18/1/2017 16:26

Ahhhhhhh so bloody frustrating

[valentine] 18/1/2017 16:17

Not too many taking advantage of the opp, so far.

[lucyp00p] 18/1/2017 15:12

Buying opportunity again

[dayway123] 18/1/2017 14:48

Poor analysis only serves to drive the share price down.

[blackdown2] 18/1/2017 14:25

Haven't heard from RBC I don't think since their 4/10/16 45p target. It would be interesting to know their current view.

[dayway123] 18/1/2017 14:12

Just one mans opinion at Peel Hunt which seems to be adrift from other broker analysis and target price. Amer has a good business model, no debt and is undervalued.

[valentine] 18/1/2017 13:46

30p seems a long way off now. So close but yet.. unlikely they'll surprise with anything this thursday then. Can't blame it all on the May woman. The Catholic church of Ecuador is offering to mediate in the peace process now. I thought that was passed, done and dusted but they seem to think otherwise.
Bored otherwise, well bored

[al101uk] 18/1/2017 12:06

Peel Hunt seem to have a habit of issuing an upgrade followed by a downgrade a couple of weeks later.

9th Jan - Upgrade 25-27
18th Jan - Downgrade 27-25

28th Sept - Upgrade
4th Oct - Downgrade

Not saying there is any motive behind this, but I think Peel Hunt and Mr James Carmichael can be safely ignored.

[al101uk] 18/1/2017 11:48

Odd, Bit Defender reported nothing.

[grahamburn] 18/1/2017 11:45

TAKE CARE OF THE LINK TO BASEBALLNEWSSOURCE.COM

Nortons blocked access to it as a "known dangerous site".

[lucyp00p] 18/1/2017 11:45

Trending on Baseball News now? Wtf

[al101uk] 18/1/2017 11:11

I'd like to read some of these notes, particularly the more negative ones, context is everything!

[someuwin] 18/1/2017 09:22

Peel Hunt downgrades AMER to 'Reduce' cuts target price to 25p.

[valentine] 17/1/2017 16:59

Three consortiums awarded mature field contracts, south of us, in Ecuador by petroamazonas. Main player in each is Sinopec, Schlumberger and Haliburton. Old news now. They presumably are quietly getting on with it.
Amerisur on t'other hand are too quiet.

[dayway123] 17/1/2017 16:06

Is there any remedial works being undertaken to increase output from Victor Hugo ruales aside from the new station being constructed?

[bigwavedave] 17/1/2017 13:39

Is IRON waking up at last?

[valentine] 17/1/2017 12:33

English version of Farc demobilisation in Putumayo.

[al101uk] 17/1/2017 12:14

Sold just under £7.3K of shares, better opportunity elsewhere and I wanted the new holding in my ISA (I like divi payers in the ISA) so couldn't use other money.

Don't feel the need to repurchase them outside of the ISA right now, so just sticking with a few less Amerisur shares in my portfolio. May reconsider if we don't hold on to this level, but struggling to find any enthusiasm and I have to start taking opportunity cost seriously.

As a result I'm a few thousand shares above what I once considered my core holding. I'm open minded about what happens next.

[9barracuda] 16/1/2017 18:56

Ah yes of course! Thanks Tony!