Afc Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ianous] 23/2/2012 20:55

Transforma, you know i gotta agree that £35k of income is pretty bad, but then its four times the amount of ITM from their last full year accounts which was just £8k.

love ya.

[new tech] 23/2/2012 20:19

Allenby Capital's current estimates for AFC (21/2/2012):

2012 Revenue estimate = £0.3 million to £1.2 million
2013 Revenue estimate = £0.5 million to £2.0 million

"Near-term revenue forecasts realigned and presented as a range. AFC is in talks with several current and prospective customers over a number of potential system sales. There is a level of uncertainty as to how many orders will result, and what the precise timing will be. This is further complicated by exactly when revenue will be recognised. It is likely orders will include up-front and milestone payments, however, revenue may not be recognisable until final installation and commissioning. To account for this, and after discussing the issue with the company, we have elected to present near-term revenue forecasts over a range. It is worth noting that revenue is still a relatively unimportant metric for AFC, and of more importance is the company's cash position and burn rate. For the cash flow we have assumed revenue comes in at the median of the forecast range and use a 50% gross margin.

We have left the top of the 2012 revenue forecast range unchanged at £1.2m, and have increased forecast administrative expenses for 2012 from £4.2m to £5.1m to reflect the increased costs associated with the transition to commercial operations. including the creation of a small manufacturing team The bulk of our previous 2013 revenue number of £5.01m was based upon multiple system sales of a basic 50kW system unit into Akzo Nobel. As the Akzo programme is evolving, so is the most cost effective system configuration and business model to suit both parties. There are various possibilities, one of which is that AFC deploys the ESCO (Energy Services Company) type model at an earlier stage. We have moderated 2013 revenue down into a range from £0.5m to 2.0m to reflect this uncertainty and at the same time have increased admin expenses to match the level forecast for 2012.

2011 pretax loss was £4.34m compared with £3.93m forecast, and cash burn was £3.30m compared with £3.08m forecast. The circa 10% difference was due to equity share based payments being slightly higher than forecast and a £191k write down on historic IP. Near-term forecast realignments have a negligible impact on our DCF target price, which is heavily back-end weighted. The increase in shares in issue due to the equity raise in May 2011 moves our target price from £2.20 to £2.08"

[transforma] 23/2/2012 19:06

Blimey those results are awful. Worse then I would have predicted. £35k of revenue really is quiet embarrassing. LoL

So, a fund raise, but at what price; they brought the price down to 40p the day before a 40p fundraise was announced; this time they wont have to try.

No product, no revenue; fundraise at 10p?

What say you Sir JakNife and Cuddly Old Ianous, my old mucker.

[new tech] 23/2/2012 16:48

Yes but they may not be able to recognise the upfront payments until actual installation which could be months afterwards. Allenby alluded to this. Its an accounting oddity meaning the actual revenues reported in the accounts may lag behind payments the company are actually receiving.

[beeezzz] 23/2/2012 15:56

It feels like the news that will be out over the next couple of weeks, months, should be good and the MM's are just getting ready by topping up, taking advantage of those S/L which have been left on from much higher share price

New Tech.....It depends they may get up front payments if AkzaNobel go ahead with an initial deployment in Germany, say 1MW, if I was running the company I certainly would.

[new tech] 23/2/2012 14:32

They will obviously need more cash but as the cash burn is low it would only be a small amount like last time and probably via a cost-effective placing with Linc also like last time.

Allenby commented on AFC's good cost control and low cash burn relative to other fuel cell companies spending three times as much per annum. To me that underlines the value shareholders are potentially getting with AFC.

[beeezzz] 23/2/2012 11:39

Yes I think the MM's are pricing in share issue for more funds, AIM is graveyard for start up companies, never given the time to or money to achieve there goals,

If the company was going for fund raising it would be silly leaving it to long that the share price is a few pence, not sure it will go that far, Linc may come in with cash injection they have plenty. Luckily, I'm still in profit so to worried yet, lost a lot of paper profit though.

[outfly] 23/2/2012 11:07

Taken from ADVFN Constant losers board.

Fallers for 8 days
EPIC Name Price Today Price Then Change Change %
AFC Afc Energy 25.25 32 -6.75 -21.09%

A fall of - 21.09% in only 8 day's. The only share to have fallen for 8 days in a row.

[outfly] 23/2/2012 10:52

Looks like this dog really is screwed, it only ever goes down. Only 1p off year low now, it will probably drop to this and below tomorrow.

[holism] 22/2/2012 20:51

Goodness, small shareholders always seem to miss the point. This is a long term play. It won't happen over night. It's important for the company to have solid institutional support during this crucial stage. Personally I think AFC should have remained private until the concept was proven commercially. However given where the company is with no news enhancing the balance sheet speculators will control the share price. That is life!

[berwicklaw] 22/2/2012 16:44

Jaknife
Thanks for that link to the Allenby capital report. Are we now to assume that you accept their forecasts or is is it only the bits you choose to select ? Either Allenby capital are a reliable source or not ? Personally I accept that they are paid by AFC and we must thus be sceptical but how about this quote :

"Akzo management have become notably more positive through reports made available to third parties and analyst briefings. This fact alone is exciting and is made more so by the statements themselves, a selection of which follow: "AFC has made huge progress in the system and electrode development in the last year ....electricity generation is the most efficient use of the hydrogen we produce....there is a higher than 50% chance of multiple unit roll-out across all Akzo plants within 5 years."

[broshm] 21/2/2012 17:42

If I say this is the time to buy , will I get a lower price tomorrow . Thats what usually happens , can I influence fate ?

[rovi57] 21/2/2012 15:36

holism, you are trying to be reasonable with liftingblade but what ever you say it will not placate his determination to hurt, misconstrue and twist facts, we are all awaiting our perceived expectations of this company growing and that's why we are here, but Liftingblade wants to keep on stabbing away just like the thug he is.

[holism] 21/2/2012 08:55

Jak- they have indeed made promises before, but that was sometime ago and under different management. I think the current executives are far more cautious so judge them not the previous lot.

[beeezzz] 20/2/2012 15:24

JakNife

Do they actually state the dates these milestones will be achieved, for the life of me I can't see a date only years, well what does that prove. Like all well run companies they only state when they have achieved there goals, as your posting points out. There last statement concerning two 50KW FC's stated that they were producing electricity at AkzoNobel's site, what else can they say, no it's not working and that plonker JakNife was right all along, how did he know, guess work, you know nothing.

I suppose you think that other fuel cell companies are better at meeting there deadlines, also you are invested in other FC companies.

At the moment the whole FC industry has no credibility as I have stated before, simply because nobody has produced a viable cost effective product, when that happens, which I expect will be for the end of this year, we'll see what happens then.

[beeezzz] 20/2/2012 12:52

Considering the company does not give deadlines you can never miss them, so not sure your point, it's usually completely inane anyway so not worth considering, including your knowledge of AFC.

I await results from AkzoNobel, which if AFC are as smart as I think they, I would have expected them to have had industrial produced hydrogen from AkzoNobel shipped over to their test FC, this way proving electrical efficiency were in line with there expectation, but more importantly would have demonstrated this to AkzoNobel before going ahead with installation of the 2 50KW FC's, otherwise AkzoNobel would not have even bothered having the FC's installed, neither company is going to waste money.

[ianous] 20/2/2012 10:18

In which case you should give up smoking and maths.