Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[7kiwi] 04/3/2022 17:30

jon wig,

I said they were on the move. On the back of trains.

As I said it's unclear why they are moving.

[jonwig] 04/3/2022 11:52

The notion in your first link, that Kaz tanks are headed for Ukraine to assist the Russians is a bit fanciful. It's 350km is a straight line from K to U, so let's say 500km plus crossing the Volga. Tanks on the move need refuelling every couple of days and stopping off at a chance petrol station isn't on the cards. Then when they arrive, they'd find the roads blocked by broken-down and abandoned Russian tanks.

But KAP does have operations in the north (next to Russia) so defending these might be prudent.

[7kiwi] 04/3/2022 10:18

Kazakh tanks on the move.



It isn't clear whether they are moving to join Putin's war, or whether they are moving to defend Kazakhstan from Russian incursion.

Moscow did ask for Kazakh support in Ukraine. The Kazakhs refused. Some reports saying Kazakhs moving "to repel military aggression if needed".



IMHO, this further increases the geopolitical risk surrounding Kazatomprom. It produces ~40% of the world's Uranium.

It might take a little while, but this added risk ought to put the Canadian miners and developers at a significant premium.

[swanvesta] 04/3/2022 09:09

Stupid comment deleted :)

[chessmaster10] 04/3/2022 09:01

Down heavily on reports of the Russians targeting the largest nuclear reactor in Ukraine.

Is it likely to deter other nations from building nuclear capacity if reactors become a target during warfare?

[bpdon] 04/3/2022 08:46

Took a few at 337p which is circa 15% discount.

[7kiwi] 03/3/2022 17:12

Haywood's updated Uranium weekly.

[7kiwi] 03/3/2022 10:25

bcmb,

I suspect it has some way to go. The Uranium market moves slowly and its on;y a week since Putin invaded Ukraine. It will take time to work through the implications. However, 40% of the world's enrichment happens in Russia.

I suspect there will be a scramble to increase enrichment capacity in the West. That will take time, but in the interim, they can stop under-feeding and perhaps start over-feeding, that will reduce secondary supply and increase primary demand.

Plus there's likely to be some logistical issues in getting KAP product out through China. That will tighten the market further.

The uranium bull case was already very strong. Putin has likely made the supply deficit worse.

Looks like a perfect storm to me.

[jonwig] 03/3/2022 10:19

And KAP down again to USD26.18 (halved since mid-November). There's clear political logic being worked out here, but this dates from 2015:

Agreement provides for temporary storage of goods and its transit through China to the western ports of the USA and Canada. Kazakhstan-Chinese cooperation will enable to diversify supply routes of Kazatomprom’s uranium products on the world market.

That ought to nullify any "Russia" effect, but it also assumes KAP will escape nationalisation.

[bmcb5] 03/3/2022 10:01

New 10-year high set in U spot price last night. I wonder how far the breakout will go

[this tea tastes of chicken] 02/3/2022 15:03

Sounds like a white swan albeit for terrible reasons

[7kiwi] 02/3/2022 14:46

Talking of which.



John Quakes@quakes99·31m
Is this biggest black swan to hit #Uranium? Maersk ships all Class 7 #Uranium globally including from #Kazakhstan. This stops U shipments via #Russia.⛔ʊ39;🚢 Is #China now only Kaz export route?🤔

World's largest container lines suspend shipping to Russia

[7kiwi] 02/3/2022 09:06

Interesting that YCA haven't announced a fund raise to exercise their $100m annual KAP option.

Is it because it's trading at a discount, so such a raise would be dilutive? Or might there be some difficulty securing material from Kazakhstan?

[7kiwi] 02/3/2022 07:46

Numerco mid price at $50.12. I make YCA NAV at 3.94 this morning.

[hpcg] 01/3/2022 23:53

Ah, yes yes, I remember now, should have remembered before I asked the question. I just had in my mind the recent news that they were upping production.

[7kiwi] 01/3/2022 18:55

Hpcg,

Not sure about that. I looked in depth last year and came to the conclusion that Cameco's cashflow would go negative at around $70/lb.

It has contractual commitments far above its current production capacity. If it can't take delivery of Inkai lbs then it will have to take more from the spot market at elevated prices, and sell them at lower contracted prices.

This will eventually work itself out. But if spot takes off, it could be in for a sticky 12-24 months unless it can ramp MR more quickly.

Edit. However, I don't know what the sanctions will mean for KAP. Maybe it just sells more to China.

[hpcg] 01/3/2022 18:16

Wouldn't Cameco be a better choice in this example? It's down 1.4% today as I type so not obviously, but it has the most to gain from an interruption in supplies from Asia.

[7kiwi] 01/3/2022 17:40

US getting concerned about supplies of nuclear fuel from Russia. Spot market already ticking up today. This might light a fire under it.



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[this tea tastes of chicken] 01/3/2022 08:26

Securing Europe will cost trillions. Apols for off topic.

[j4ckthehat] 28/2/2022 20:31

Raytheon looks an absolute shoo in

[this tea tastes of chicken] 28/2/2022 17:12

997
Lockheed
Raytheon
on the NYSE