Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[7kiwi] 09/3/2022 17:46

With the mid-price at $53.50, I make it that YCA's NAV has broken through the $1bn barrier, I think for the first time.



I make the NAV 424p, compared to today's close at 380p - a 10.5% discount.

[7kiwi] 08/3/2022 23:08

YCA is a pure play on physical U3O8.

GCL is a fund investing primarily in miners. Some of its assets are also in YCA and SPUT, a similar physical fund in Canada.

The miners ought to be a geared play on the physical. So GCL should amplify the upside, but will also amplify the downside.

GCL also significantly smaller and less liquid than YCA.

[apollocreed1] 08/3/2022 21:32

Can anyone explain the difference and risk levels between Yellow Cake and Geiger Counter please?

[7kiwi] 08/3/2022 18:53

🧐🧐🧐

It may not matter what Biden does. Putin banning export of raw materials and products from Russia until 31 December. Not clear if this includes enriched Uranium - UF6. Russia supplies about 20% of US and European enriched Uranium.

[7kiwi] 08/3/2022 16:36

Biden banning imports of Russian oil and "energy". If this means Uranium as well as fossil fuels, take your protein pills and put your helmet on, because you're off to see Major Tom.

hTtps://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1501232649507115011?t=a-QRx9z_f11QXaXw6L2TzQ&s=19

[7kiwi] 08/3/2022 10:05

I would have thought the discount here would be wide enough to encourage some aggressive arbitrage to close the gap, but the discount still persists.

[yupawiese2010] 07/3/2022 16:34

If this assists anybody Thomas Hofer has kindly set up a price history & N.A.V tracker
for YCA via this link.

hTTps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SdQ0pXhW2KJ_PJoiJ3w97tzVz1fGcupAU9bfpTJkOHw/edit#gid=0

[7kiwi] 06/3/2022 23:38

Elon Musk starts pushing to restart mothballed nuclear power plants to assist with energy security.

htTps://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1500613952031444995?t=umrrBjgGJ7eLFWn4JsGrmw&s=19

[matt778] 05/3/2022 11:45

Chernobil the other nuclear power plant would make excellent cover for an arms/fuel dump or army base. They arent going to blow them up they will use them

[jonwig] 04/3/2022 18:37

OK, thanks.

[7kiwi] 04/3/2022 17:30

jon wig,

I said they were on the move. On the back of trains.

As I said it's unclear why they are moving.

[jonwig] 04/3/2022 11:52

The notion in your first link, that Kaz tanks are headed for Ukraine to assist the Russians is a bit fanciful. It's 350km is a straight line from K to U, so let's say 500km plus crossing the Volga. Tanks on the move need refuelling every couple of days and stopping off at a chance petrol station isn't on the cards. Then when they arrive, they'd find the roads blocked by broken-down and abandoned Russian tanks.

But KAP does have operations in the north (next to Russia) so defending these might be prudent.

[7kiwi] 04/3/2022 10:18

Kazakh tanks on the move.

httPs://twitter.com/aigul_pavel/status/1498717512623697922

It isn't clear whether they are moving to join Putin's war, or whether they are moving to defend Kazakhstan from Russian incursion.

Moscow did ask for Kazakh support in Ukraine. The Kazakhs refused. Some reports saying Kazakhs moving "to repel military aggression if needed".

hTtps://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1499520295975014403

IMHO, this further increases the geopolitical risk surrounding Kazatomprom. It produces ~40% of the world's Uranium.

It might take a little while, but this added risk ought to put the Canadian miners and developers at a significant premium.

[swanvesta] 04/3/2022 09:09

Stupid comment deleted :)

[chessmaster10] 04/3/2022 09:01

Down heavily on reports of the Russians targeting the largest nuclear reactor in Ukraine.

Is it likely to deter other nations from building nuclear capacity if reactors become a target during warfare?

[bpdon] 04/3/2022 08:46

Took a few at 337p which is circa 15% discount.

[7kiwi] 03/3/2022 17:12

Haywood's updated Uranium weekly.

hTtps://clients.haywood.com/uploadfiles/secured_reports/UxMar32022.pdf

[7kiwi] 03/3/2022 10:25

bcmb,

I suspect it has some way to go. The Uranium market moves slowly and its on;y a week since Putin invaded Ukraine. It will take time to work through the implications. However, 40% of the world's enrichment happens in Russia.

I suspect there will be a scramble to increase enrichment capacity in the West. That will take time, but in the interim, they can stop under-feeding and perhaps start over-feeding, that will reduce secondary supply and increase primary demand.

Plus there's likely to be some logistical issues in getting KAP product out through China. That will tighten the market further.

The uranium bull case was already very strong. Putin has likely made the supply deficit worse.

Looks like a perfect storm to me.

[jonwig] 03/3/2022 10:19

And KAP down again to USD26.18 (halved since mid-November). There's clear political logic being worked out here, but this dates from 2015:

Agreement provides for temporary storage of goods and its transit through China to the western ports of the USA and Canada. Kazakhstan-Chinese cooperation will enable to diversify supply routes of Kazatomprom’s uranium products on the world market.

That ought to nullify any "Russia" effect, but it also assumes KAP will escape nationalisation.

[bmcb5] 03/3/2022 10:01

New 10-year high set in U spot price last night. I wonder how far the breakout will go

[this tea tastes of chicken] 02/3/2022 15:03

Sounds like a white swan albeit for terrible reasons

[7kiwi] 02/3/2022 14:46

Talking of which.

hTtps://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1499025228894142465

John Quakes@quakes99·31m
Is this biggest black swan to hit #Uranium? Maersk ships all Class 7 #Uranium globally including from #Kazakhstan. This stops U shipments via #Russia.⛔ʊ39;🚢 Is #China now only Kaz export route?🤔

World's largest container lines suspend shipping to Russia