Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 09/2/2022 14:48

Cameco opens up 9%

[7kiwi] 05/2/2022 10:37

It might be related to the URA ETF rebalancing that is underway at the moment. Maybe clear now, or there might be some further activity on Monday. Needs to be compete by Tuesday,

[jonwig] 05/2/2022 07:26

No, it's the closing UT (uncrossing trade). 1.143mn shares were bought and 1.143mn shares were sold by participants in the auction.

[weaverbeever] 04/2/2022 23:08

Did someone buy 1.143 million shares after hours?

[7kiwi] 03/2/2022 19:49

Yes, Cannacord seem to have got burnt in their last report where they predicted a spike to $80/lb in 4Q21/1Q22.

So, they have downgraded their forecast now. It's odd that some commentators are saying new mines won't get sanctioned until U3O8 goes above $70 or $75/lb, but their long term forecast is a pretty stable $65. Yet, they are showing a supply deficit each year out to 2030.

I guess they have decided to be cautious, because it's better for them if they under-call upside rather than over-call it.

[mjneish] 03/2/2022 17:40

7Kiwi thanks for posting that.

The lower target price comes from lowering the 12-month forward price of U3O8 in their model.

Valuation and recommendation

We set our target price based on a 1.0x P/NPV multiple (distinct from the spot NAV
that is commonly quoted), rounded to the nearest 5p. We lower our target price to
£4.35/sh due to the change to our uranium price deck (we now value YCA inventory
12 months forward, using a US$57.50/lb U3O8 price, down from US$65/lb), and
maintain our BUY rating.

[bpdon] 03/2/2022 13:17

Good to see YCA as part of their top picks but surprised to see the target price reduced despite their target price for u308 being unchanged.

[sea7] 03/2/2022 09:35

thanks kiwi..

from that note

Top picks for 2022: Our top picks for 2022 are NexGen Energy (NXE-TSX) andDenison Mines (DML-TSX) in North America; Paladin Energy (PDN-ASX) and BossEnergy (BOE-ASX) in Australia; and Yellow Cake plc (YCA-AIM) in the UK.

[aylingd] 03/2/2022 09:20

Thanks 7Kiwi, they certainly paint a positve future. Lets hope YCA can 'make hay whilst the sun shines'.

D.

[7kiwi] 03/2/2022 00:12

New Cannacord note out about the Uranium sector.

[mjneish] 02/2/2022 12:23

7Kiwi thanks for the explanation.

Fidra yes it's good to be back. :) I was out of the stock market for a very long time, but now wish I had got back into it sooner. Too busy doing other things.

[fidra] 02/2/2022 07:16

Mjneish,good to see you are still about ,I see you have only recently started posting again.

[7kiwi] 01/2/2022 23:08

China starts its first 4th Gen modular reactor. Looks like the SMR sector is starting to heat up.

[7kiwi] 01/2/2022 23:06

Mjneish,

The answer is that they don't pass on the material, they sequester it for a long time. If the Uranium market turns into a bear market, and the share price falls to a significant discount to NAV, then they might sell some material to buy back shares.

[skyship] 31/1/2022 13:27

jonwig - I too took fright when things became political. A pity as this was a good trading stock. Won't risk it now as clearly Kaz now part of Putin's kleptocracy.

[7kiwi] 31/1/2022 13:10

jon wig,

I think the fears are also about increased labour costs (imho, they should pay a decent wage to their workers, but higher wages means lower profits), continued supply chain disruption and higher corporate taxation.

However, the authorities are clearly under pressure since the unrest, so the chances that they make a policy mistake are probably quite high.

[jonwig] 31/1/2022 07:01

jdepp - KAP has been weak since the upheavals in Kaz. There are fears of nationalisation. These are probably overdone, but I sold half of my holding when the troubles started.

[jdepp5] 30/1/2022 19:14

Hello, as a newbie to uranium, SPROTT seems to trade at nav whereas Yellow Cake is at I guess a discount, given they do not update daily.
Any suggestions to gain exposure appreciated, or a miner, KAP?

[sea7] 28/1/2022 10:20

posted on another site Bulletin board...

January presentation came out a couple of days ago:



NAV/share on 21 Jan was 345p, based on U at $44.5/lb.

[j4ckthehat] 26/1/2022 14:15

https://www.indianaenvironmentalreporter.org/posts/bill-allowing-construction-of-nuclear-reactors-in-indiana-clears-first-hurdle

[sea7] 26/1/2022 10:22

extract

The birth of the #SPUT has clearly had a powerful impact on the uranium market, with the spot price increasing over 50% to $47 from its August low of $30. Since the acquisition, Sprott has purchased over 21 million pounds, growing assets under management to close to $2 billion. We’d note that much of this move has happened with utilities on the sidelines, largely surprised by a $15-20 jump and hoping that Sprott is a short-term phenomenon that can be “waited out.” We don’t believe that’s likely to be true and expect utilities to feel Sprott’s impact, not just in the spot market but on their their mid- and long-term contract books as the cycle progresses (they are connected – as we outline below). We’d remind readers that we’ve always said the real fun begins when utilities re-enter the long term market in force.

[7kiwi] 24/1/2022 13:14

tonsil,

I've got it indirectly through my holding in GCL. I too have noticed it's not listed on HL. So, sorry, can't help with how to buy it directly. If you ask HL, they might be able to help. It may be restricted because it's majority owned by the Kazakh state.

[tonsil] 24/1/2022 12:16

Anyone hold Kazatomprom? How did you buy it? HL don't list it.