Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[7kiwi] 12/11/2021 07:56

Kazatomprom signs two contracts with the Chinese to supply Uranium. Quantities and prices not disclosed.



If this is the start of the long term contracting cycle, then it's very bullish. I saw an interview with Grant Isaacs (CFO of Cameco) the other day when he said "contracting begets contracting". It's not really surprising that China is first out of the blocks. Iirc, it was China that catalysed that last big bull run in 2006/7.

Could possibly be the mechanism by which the new storage facility, announced a couple of months ago, is filled.

[madd_rip] 12/11/2021 01:27

It seems the company has been promoted to the MSCI global small cap indexeshTTps://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/smallcap/MSCI_Nov21_SCPublicList.pdf

[bpdon] 11/11/2021 16:34

Ha ha @7kiwi. Indeed. Sprott and the U sector was flying at the state side bell today. Up 4% at the moment - lets hope that's on decent volume so the ATM is in full flow.

[7kiwi] 11/11/2021 15:47

Somebody must have been watching this thread and decided to push it back to a premium again!

Glad to be of help junior21. The Uranium case was compelling a few months ago. Arguably the macro demand story is even stronger now.

[junior21] 11/11/2021 12:15

Really appreciate the recent posts on this thread 👍

And a big hat tip to 7Kiwi for mentioning this on the SHA board a few months ago.

[7kiwi] 11/11/2021 11:58

I won't quibble over a penny or two. I calculate slightly over NAV, but it's close enough.



Well set for another surge. We've got to be close to the point where spot U3O8 rises again. SPUT sitting on $57m that they have to spend soon.

[bpdon] 11/11/2021 11:17

With the stronger dollar, U spot price rising slightly, and the YCA share price drifting..... I calculate we are finally back to a very small discount. Good to see the froth and the excessive premium from mid October worked off.

[7kiwi] 10/11/2021 18:02

This is bullish for Uranium in that it might delay or restrict new supply. Not so good for the miners in the Western part of the Athabasca Basin, like Nexgen and Fission. Although difficult to tell how serious this might become.

[jonwig] 10/11/2021 15:00

kinb - OK, you may be right.

I agree that the demand is inelastic - it would be silly to haggle when operating a power station is at risk!

But the implication there is that a liquid and fully regulated market (spot and futures) should happen, with transparent public pricing. We shouldn't have to scrabble around to find what's happening day-to-day!

[kinbasket] 10/11/2021 14:06

Jonwig. It's lot less than 5%. I've read recently it could be as low as 1% at $100lb for any new build generation.

There's info on the world nuclear association page here..



Uranium is only 1/3rd of the fuel cost. Conversion enrichment and fabrication make up the other 2/3rds

First fuel load according the above website is 3% so 1/3rd of that is only 1%.

[jonwig] 10/11/2021 11:29

kinbasket - I think 5% is the proportion often mentioned. (See link below.) But a 10x increase in U price would make it 34% of the total. (Of course, capital costs and depreciation are probably bigger still.)

This article from September covers a lot of the ground. (Apologies if it's been posted already.)

[kinbasket] 10/11/2021 11:02

My working assumption is the US listing of Sprott will be the likely catalyst to a more significant move.

It opens up the options market and who knows what happens then.

Given the cost of U is a fractional input cost to energy production there's no reason U can't trade at a price 10x today if supply is constrained. The setup for a speculative parabolic bubble is one of the best I've seen.

[pob69] 10/11/2021 10:42

YCA and uranium coverage half way down this article

[bmcb5] 10/11/2021 10:36

These miners have been in the doldrums for years and years. I'm not really surprised that pushing the spot price up towards $50 has flushed out a few more lbs, as desperate companies see the chance for immediate cashflow. Sure, they'll make more by holding onto it, but we all have bills to pay, and I imagine that some of these companies have been carrying overdue debts for some time.

It seems to me that Sprott's policy was to spike up to $50, and see what volume that flushes out. The subsequent price action suggests that volume is quickly being bought up.

I'm expecting a breakout move above $50. I'm really not sure where that breakout takes us

[bpdon] 10/11/2021 10:08

According to @theAlexW latest data, Sprott have now purchased >19.3M pounds over the last 12 weeks (60 trading days). That's an average of 321,000 pounds per trading day.

Referring back to my previous post 742, YCA claim that the total 2020 spot market volume was 92.2M pounds. Sprott have already bought > 20% of last years total spot market volume during a single quarter.

It sounds quite incredible. But I must admit that I have been surprised that the spot market appears deeper than I expected. I was anticipating a larger move on the spot price on the back of such a relentless buying presence. Sellers seem happy to off-load at these lower prices rather than wait for higher bids. Similarly, Sprott seem much more patient and happy to wait on the bid. Both of these behaviours are different to what we saw in Septembers big jumps.

Industry commentators had indicated that the perceived wisdom in the industry pre Sprott was that there was circa 25M mobile pounds floating around. Plus circa 1-2M per month secondary supply. If that is accurate, and assuming there are no other buyers (unlikely) and Sprott maintain their average activity, then we will probably see the spot market really tighten by early January.

5 months (Aug to Dec) secondary supply is say 7.5M plus 25M mobile surplus = 32.5M. Sprott has hoovered 19.3M leaving 13.2M to go. That's circa 40 trading days at the average Sprott buying rate.

[the white house] 09/11/2021 16:07

Rolls raiding 500m to build small nuclear rectors One way

[idiotsinthedarkrizandlintard] 09/11/2021 08:32

No wonder the shares are the dog of the sector.

[idiotsinthedarkrizandlintard] 09/11/2021 08:31

In June these idiots rose $87M and spent only $17 M of it on buying Uranium. The rest went on salaries, airfares and green fees in Jersey. One of the best value destroying BOD ever. Hahahahaha hahahahaha

[spittingbarrel] 08/11/2021 14:46

I'm hoping it will fill the gap up to 383.

[skyship] 06/11/2021 11:29

New mines in the offing; but always takes an age to actually come on stream!

[skyship] 06/11/2021 08:28

Another site picks up on points raised in 7kiwi's post from 3rd November:

[the white house] 05/11/2021 16:49

Swampy, Germaine & Jezza will be adding YC to their portfolio any day now