Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[bpdon] 30/11/2021 11:08

Yup @skyship - I have it back out to an 8.5% discount at the moment which is unusually large. Just took a few more at 331p. The U sector charts generally look a bit vulnerable to me so I am still holding some dry powder.

[skyship] 30/11/2021 10:02

See 7Kiwi's post No. 906 above. Seems that we are back once again to a 10% discount; so have bought yet again at 332.5p...

[prince7652] 30/11/2021 09:02

Few more added 335

[bmcb5] 26/11/2021 13:55

Just picked up a few more at 337p

[7kiwi] 24/11/2021 09:18

Many highlights from the Bloor capital conference yesterday, but I like this from John Ciampaglia best:

"I think at some point we are going to find we're going to have more trouble finding lbs...it maybe harder for us to find fresh new lbs"

[skyship] 24/11/2021 08:34

7Kiwi - of course - thnx.

Chart suggests a flag, so if we can break through 49.10 (closed at 48.05) then we could see another strong upward movement...

[7kiwi] 23/11/2021 22:10

Skyship,

Main difference is rhe assumed spot price. It's gone up during the day. NAV moves with spot price. And a small difference in assumed cable rate.

[skyship] 23/11/2021 20:52

bpdon/Kiwi - can you account for the c2% difference in your NAV estimates?

Both much appreciated; but just curious...

[7kiwi] 23/11/2021 20:11

In response to the request for the NAV calculation. Here's my view:



It got this wide late September, early October. Looks like U3O8 price has turned up again, Numerco reporting $47.25 this afternoon. So, YCA looks like a buy to me at this level.

P.S. I have taken out the derivative liability now, and reduced cash by a corresponding amount.

[7kiwi] 23/11/2021 16:36

We keep seeing these cycles.

However, signs that the spot price is starting to turn up today. It might stutter until after Thanksgiving and the new SPUT ATM comes online.

But the fundamental story is still very strong.

Just watching the Bloor Capital Uranium conference. Both KAP & PDN think China is back on manoeuvres. KAP says utilities are talking about supply beyond 2030.

[picardy] 23/11/2021 15:01

Massive sells but all seem to be bought in. Nice recovery today all bodes well for tomorrow.

[bpdon] 23/11/2021 13:31

I have NAV at circa 363 using U spot of $46.25 and a cable rate of 1.337. That gives a discount of over 9%. I would say the market is pricing in spot reversing back towards $40 in the short term.

The premium was about 10% late October which, as above, has reversed to a sizeable discount now. This has amplified the volatility.

I agree the charts look weak - it's not just YCA but across the U sector. Scale in and scale out has been my strategy.

[skyship] 23/11/2021 13:15

A 13% fall in the share price over the course of a week - down from 380p to 330p.

Fall certainly looks overdone as an NAV discount now opening up; but the chart suggests this could fall further to the early October support at 320p.

7Kiwi - could I ask please; what is your take on the current NAV?


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[7kiwi] 23/11/2021 09:35

Picardy,

SPUT has increased its ATM facility. It won't be issuing new units for a few days. It may buy more Uranium with its $50m cash pile. However, it looks like traders are shaking out weaker holders.

I would have thought those who bought in the placing will be wanting to see a return on their investment, not be dumping the shares after a short term loss.

The fundamentals of the Uranium market are very strong, and getting stronger. But it's volatile, so you need to keep your emotions under control.

[picardy] 23/11/2021 08:48

A lot of selling pressure - is this the placing shares, I would have thought that the bulk of these should already have been sold into the earlier rise?..

[7kiwi] 23/11/2021 00:09

Sprott has increased the SPUT ATM to$3.5bn, from the current $1.3bn, of which nearly $1bn invested.

Blimey.

[bmcb5] 22/11/2021 23:39

Welcome, Picardy and other recent buyers.

Sprott have just announced an increase of a further $2B to their ATM. Takes it up to $3.5B.

They’re not messing about

[picardy] 22/11/2021 15:25

Bought here today - the fall is way overdone imho.

[hillock1] 22/11/2021 13:37

Agree @bpdon, the share price has been dropped quite a bit since the placement...probably needs the spot price to go higher, to make YCA back to the placement price..

[bpdon] 22/11/2021 10:51

That was my interpretation too @kiwi - KAP need the pounds now and opted to trigger their right to take them. YCA can wait until fresh pounds are produced next year as it makes no difference to their NAV anyway and possibly shaves some short term storage costs.

[7kiwi] 22/11/2021 09:36

I have taken advantage of the weakness in the GCL price this morning rebalanced back towards GCL.

[7kiwi] 22/11/2021 09:35

Interesting that YCA doesn't get the U3O8 back until March or April next year.

Indication that KAP needs the lbs now, and will give them back from production next year?

[bpdon] 22/11/2021 08:45

Bit of an over reaction to this mornings RNS, which was already known and baked into the NAV. I bought a little bit more.

[7kiwi] 20/11/2021 00:29

Very interesting article on what's going on in the Uranium market.

[yupawiese2010] 19/11/2021 15:33

Very interesting article on the state of the Uranium market, (especially for Cameco holders, where they dismiss some of the false rumours).!!