Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[7kiwi] 07/1/2022 19:09

I am seeing lots of reports of the unrest spreading to Shymkent. Shymkent is a sort of Uranium hub. A video example here:

htTps://twitter.com/i/status/1479490101696622594

Shymkent centre-ish at the bottom of this image. Uranium mines in a big arc to the North. Including Cameco's JV, Inkai.



KAP has an RNS out too. Saying operations OK at the moment but high risk of disruption to supply chains.

hTtps://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/KAP/kazatomprom-reports-on-civil-unrest-in-kazakhstan/15279810

[jonwig] 07/1/2022 10:59

FT (snippets only):

Uranium prices have jumped this week as violent protests in Kazakhstan stoke concerns about security of supply for the radioactive material used to fuel nuclear reactors.

The price has gained more than 8 per cent this week and to $45.65 a pound, according to an assessment from UxC, a nuclear fuel market research and analysis firm, after Russian forces arrived in Kazakhstan to help push back on protests that have led to dozens being killed in clashes with police.

Although Kazatomprom continues to operate normally, Katie Lachapelle, analyst at Canaccord Genuity, said the troubles in the resource rich central Asian country were a “reminder of how concentrated uranium supply is and how important security of supply is”.

“We expect utilities to be on high alert as the situation evolves,” she said.

Utility companies currently consume about 180m pounds of uranium every year, mainly through long-term supply agreements with miners. However, only 125m pounds of uranium are actually being mined in part because of a lack of investment in new deposits. This means stockpiles and secondary supplies such as military warheads are being used to fill the gap.

Toktar Turbay, of consultants CRU Group, said Kazakhstan’s uranium mines were located in the remote Turkestan region, which had been largely unaffected by the protests.

However, he said there could be some logistical hurdles delivering uranium to China, which purchases half of the country’s output, since the major export route passes through the Almaty region, where there have been major clashes.

“It is just likely to create minor discomfort rather than anything else. In the last decade, China has accumulated vast uranium inventories that can cover 11-12 years of uranium demand needs,” said Turbay.
https://www.ft.com/content/18d3e1ad-9bd3-4da0-82e1-4b716ace0594

[7kiwi] 05/1/2022 22:00

Canaccord give their take on the Kazakhstan unrest.

[7kiwi] 05/1/2022 21:49

SPUT has raised a massive amount today on record volume. Miners off their peaks today as the broader market sold off.

Apparently, the Kazakh president has asked neighbouring countries for help to quell the uprising. So, could be over quite quickly or get messy.

[7kiwi] 05/1/2022 09:17

The President has accepted the resignation of the Cabinet and price controls reinstated. Too early to say if this will be enough to quell the unrest.

[7kiwi] 04/1/2022 22:09

Growing unrest in Kazakhstan over increases in the price of LPG.

Worth monitoring in case the disturbances impact on KAPs production.

htTps://www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-protests-energy-lng-price/31638800.html

[7kiwi] 04/1/2022 13:26

You're right. China announced around the time of COP26 in November. That WNA article is from October 21.

China is planning 150 new reactors up to 2035. Nearly 11 per year over 14 years. That's almost 1 per month.

hTtps://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/china-climate-goals-hinge-on-440-billion-nuclear-power-plan-to-rival-u-s#:~:text=China's%20Climate%20Goals%20Hinge%20on,built%20in%20the%20past%2035.

[weaverbeever] 31/12/2021 00:17

I thought China were planning 150?

[jsforum] 30/12/2021 15:32

http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/others/asias-nuclear-energy-growth.aspx

[7kiwi] 16/12/2021 11:51

Anchorage Hedge fund to close:

htTps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-15/anchorage-capital-to-shutter-hedge-fund-return-client-cash

Trouble is it has "a few million" pounds of U3O8. Might explain the recent weakness in the Uranium price. We might expect further weakness until they have fully liquidated.

hTtps://www.wsj.com/articles/hedge-fund-behind-amazon-mgm-deal-amasses-big-bet-on-uranium-11623324178

[bagpuss67] 11/12/2021 09:30

Buy rating in investors chronicle.

[7kiwi] 08/12/2021 14:09

Good spot bpdon.

[7kiwi] 08/12/2021 00:37

I overlooked the new investor pres.

I don't think there's much new in it.

htTps://www.yellowcakeplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Yellow_Cake_Investor_Presentation_November_2021_Final.pdf

[bpdon] 06/12/2021 13:57

Nothing longer term YCA holders probably didn't already know in this new article: hTTps://seekingalpha.com/article/4473551-yellow-cake-trading-with-large-discount-nav

[bpdon] 06/12/2021 11:07

That's the discount > 13% now. Incredible circa 25% swing from a big premium to a big discount since mid October. YCA seems to be pricing in Sprott being out of the market for a while and spot drifting.

Interesting cypher pattern @ptolemy - lets hope that your upside bias is proved right. In your worst case, a move to 260 would by quite a shake out and would need to align with a real puke in the sector and spot back to where we started 2021 (low 30s).

I added a few more at 311p. Still have some dry powder but steadily working my way through it with these top ups.

[ptolemy] 06/12/2021 10:52

Here's my view of Yellow Cake. Pattern will resolve to the upside but not clear when.

hTTps://twitter.com/SeymourTrading/status/1467808103844528134/photo/1

[bpdon] 03/12/2021 18:42

Indeed @sky - that looks very plausible from here with sentiment in the gutter across the board at the moment.

I see the YCA discount is now out to nearer 12%. With Sprotts ATM switched off in the short term, we can anticipate the U spot price drifting. Hopefully the larger than normal discount will help cushion a lot of that if it materialises.

[skyship] 03/12/2021 16:25

The 330p finally broke; then 325p didn't hold. Looks uncomfortably like a Head & Shoulders top formation with a target down at c280p.

Seems totally counter-intuitive, so will hold my 5% allocation; but sold my trading stock at a small loss.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[bpdon] 02/12/2021 10:37

Blimey. YCA discount dropped to 10%. Sprott discount out to 6% too.

[skyship] 30/11/2021 15:33

BUY as they approach 330p:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[yawn1971] 30/11/2021 14:21

https://www.livescience.com/amp/nasa-moon-nuclear-fission-reactorThe price is going to the moon and back long term !

[bmcb5] 30/11/2021 12:13

Agree with that. Monthly downtrends still intact imo, and short term direction could be negative

[bpdon] 30/11/2021 11:08

Yup @skyship - I have it back out to an 8.5% discount at the moment which is unusually large. Just took a few more at 331p. The U sector charts generally look a bit vulnerable to me so I am still holding some dry powder.

[skyship] 30/11/2021 10:02

See 7Kiwi's post No. 906 above. Seems that we are back once again to a 10% discount; so have bought yet again at 332.5p...

[prince7652] 30/11/2021 09:02

Few more added 335