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YCA Yellow Cake Plc

622.00
-3.50 (-0.56%)
19 Apr 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Yellow Cake Plc LSE:YCA London Ordinary Share JE00BF50RG45 ORD GBP0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -3.50 -0.56% 622.00 372,468 16:35:26
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
620.00 621.00 622.50 611.00 620.00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Uranium-radium-vanadium Ores USD USD -102.94M USD -0.4747 -13.06 1.34B
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
18:28:26 O 376 621.956 GBX

Yellow Cake (YCA) Latest News

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Date Time Title Posts
07/4/202407:25Yellow Cake2,233

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Yellow Cake (YCA) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
17:28:27621.963762,338.55O
17:09:02622.004,19626,099.12O
17:09:00622.001,0616,599.42O
16:53:40617.781380.31O
16:53:40617.5453327.30O

Yellow Cake (YCA) Top Chat Posts

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Posted at 19/4/2024 09:20 by Yellow Cake Daily Update
Yellow Cake Plc is listed in the Uranium-radium-vanadium Ores sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker YCA. The last closing price for Yellow Cake was 625.50p.
Yellow Cake currently has 216,856,447 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Yellow Cake is £1,344,509,971.
Yellow Cake has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -13.06.
This morning YCA shares opened at 620p
Posted at 19/3/2024 20:03 by sea7
Weekly Reports | Mar 19 2024

The spot uranium price fell sharply last week as sellers became more agitated.

-Uranium spot price falls -US$7/lb

-Kazatomprom warns of lack of inventory

-Still no news on Russian uranium sanctions

The recent price fall is attributed to two main factors, TradeTech notes, and they are both related to the psychological impact of triple digits.

When the spot price crossed the US$100/lb mark, utilities, who are not major spot market participants at the best of times, declined to buy at such prices. Speculative entities, now holding vast amounts of physical material, saw triple digits as a good place to take profits, having spent years amassing their inventories.

But even as prices fell back into the nineties, and speculative volumes were cleared, utilities showed little interest, and sellers, mostly intermediaries, became frustrated and started lowering prices. Five transactions were reported last week at prices between US$90 and US$84/lb.

and...

Term Markets

Utilities may be unwilling to pay triple-digit prices in the spot market but when it comes to securing medium term supply, from sources other than Russia, they are indeed willing.

Ongoing uncertainty over Russian imports only steels their resolve.

TradeTech’s term price indicators remain at US$100/lb (mid-term) and US$75/lb (long).
Posted at 05/3/2024 08:43 by sea7
After a very volatile February for uranium spot prices, triggered by the price rise to over US$100/lb, the month ended with further easing from that mark. Industry consultant TradeTech’s weekly price indicator fell -US$1.50 to US$93.50/lb.

That’s down from US$100.50/lb at end-January, but the indicator is nevertheless up 87% year on year and 55% above the 2023 average price.

TradeTech notes much of the selling has come from financial entities, that first kicked off the uranium rally a few years ago, trimming positions and booking what would be considerable profits at prices over US$100/lb.
Posted at 23/1/2024 13:45 by 7kiwi
Rimau,

I don't think there's a raise imminent. First there's $33m on the balance sheet. Second, raising now would be dilutive to existing shareholders and all prior raisings have been neutral or slightly accretive. They won't raise at such a discount, imv.

Nimbo,

At current Numerco mid-price of $106/lb and share price of 712p, I make the discount 15.8%. It's big, but nowhere near 20%.

I would think a buyback is much more likely than a raise. But I suspect they will wait to see how the market reacts to the upcoming statements from KAP and CCO before deciding whether to do a buyback or not.

If YCA does get to NAV and thinks about raising, I wonder if KAP has the material to honour the $100m option? I suppose what works in KAP's favour is that $100m now buys less than 1m lbs, whereas not too long ago it would have bought 2m lbs or more.
Posted at 20/1/2024 10:40 by 7kiwi
MrN.

Kazatomprom is already under significant influence from Russia and China.

According to this press report, China has contracts for 60% of Kaz production and Russia 26%, leaving just 14% for the west. Iirc, even Cameco did a deal to sell some of its share of Inkai production to China.

The option with KAP was and is valuable, but even if the option is somehow terminated early, I don't really see how that negatively impacts YCA's share price. It would underline the scarcity of western material and push up the per pound price, pushing up YCA's NAV per share. It's NAV per share matters far more than total NAV of the company.

As I said before, my own view is that at some point YCA will be taken out by a consortium of producers and/or utilities. There's a 30-50m lb p.a. structural deficit in the market for the next few years. YCA's 21m lbs will help mitigate the deficit in one of those years. It would have to at least be at NAV though for shareholders to approve such a deal.
Posted at 18/1/2024 16:13 by yupawiese2010
Here is the short Berenberg article.

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg raised their target price on uranium group Yellow Cake from 744.0p to 883.0p on Thursday following a fireside chat with chief executive Andre Liebenberg and Dustin Garrow, managing principal at Nuclear Fuel Associates and chief commercial officer of 308 Services.

Berenberg said it came away from the chat with the view that the uranium's price rally can be sustained, with tight supply, plus existing supply disruptions, as well as delays to new projects, thin spot markets and a positive demand outlook from both growing utility demand and small modular reactors, plus the ongoing headwind of falling coverage ratios, particularly for US utilities, all pointing to prices being well underpinned with scope for further disruptions to push the price of uranium higher.

The German bank, which reiterated its 'buy' rating on the stock, also noted that underpinning this and providing more upside risk for prices, scope remains for the US government to ban imports of Russian uranium, providing a further dislocation of trade flows and impacting supply of uranium into the US, creating an energy security risk.

"We think that uranium prices are likely to remain elevated and think that there is scope for further price appreciation due to the tight markets and ongoing supply risk. We lift our price to $102.50/lb for 2024 and remain of the view that prices can spike even further from current levels," said Berenberg. "This lifts our Yellow Cake price target to 883.0p per share. Yellow Cake is trading at a 14% discount to pro-forma net asset value and we see a clear trade here for investors to generate alpha through the NAV discount arbitrage."

Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com
Posted at 12/1/2024 17:19 by 7kiwi
And there we have it, NAV over £8/share. Despite the decent rise today discount is over £1/share at 13.9%, with Numerco now reporting £101.50/lb mid-price.



Now SPUT is at or around NAV, it would make sense for investors to turn their attention to YCA to bring the share price inline with NAV so they can raise cash and exercise their option with KAP and see how many pounds $100m will buy in this market and what the delivery terms are.
Posted at 10/1/2024 10:14 by mjneish
I say this with YCA being my largest holding. I don't think the share price should reflect the value of the uranium held. It should reflect the expectations of where the uranium price will be in future. The spot price has gone up a lot very quickly, and the question is where it will be going next. Perhaps the long-term trend is upwards, but that does not rule out short-term corrections. If you expect this to occur, a discount to NAV is reasonable.
Posted at 22/12/2023 23:38 by 7kiwi
Rimau,

You would be right if they could still buy Uranium at 48. But they can't.

If they can buy Uranium at less than the equivalent price reflected in the share price (~$76.70 today), then they should possibly hold on to the cash, or buy the Uranium. I suspect they can't, so a buyback would be more accretive.

Probably better in the medium term to buy back, get the share price close to NAV and activate the $100m 2024 option with KAP and take another 1m lbs or so off the market. NAV will then rise again as the market tightens further.
Posted at 22/12/2023 22:17 by 7kiwi
Numerco has $91.50/lb mid. Takes YCA over $2bn NAV, but we're at over 16% discount so not getting the full value yet in the share price.
Posted at 28/9/2023 20:42 by bountyhunter
There's a big US dependency on Russian Uranium imports to break based on what I have read ...but maybe things are moving on there now?



The current situation appears to be more than a little concerning generally speaking, although will probably help the YCA share price going forwards?

"Western governments have avoided sanctioning Rosatom for obvious reasons. But their over reliance on Russian uranium comes with a huge risk because most utilities only keep about 18 months of fuel inventory, meaning their nuclear sectors would face a meltdown if Putin suddenly decided to stop doing business with them."
Yellow Cake share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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