Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 14/10/2021 13:07

7Kiwi - Thanks for the research on Cameco, from when you posted it before. I closed that position and just concentrated on the physical. I don't really have the time to research each Uranium producer carefully enough, and it is much more reliable to just concentrate funds on the physical at this time.

[idiotsinthe darkrizandlintard] 14/10/2021 11:37

Agreed, but if the market believes that the rise in Uranium is sustainable (which is questionable) if we get to mid 70s quickly then assuming most analysts would value the company on a DCF basis the new long term contracts will be priced at the existing spot price of say $75 and the perpetuity figure of the NPV models will rise dramatically.

All this is guess work obviously but one thing is certain. If Uranium spot prices continue to rise and this becomes mainstream on MSNBC and other networks we will see another huge influx of retail money in chasing returns and the resultant explosion 💥 in share prices signals the time to exit but by then the likes of yellow cake, Cameco etc will be another 70% higher. By the time retail investors en masse find out about this as a general rule it is the end of the run as the incremental buyer would have been exhausted.

By the way I am not Riz - Riz and Lintard are two idiots in the dark who were bankrupted in ODX and BPC. Since bankruptcy they troll other investors and try to disrupt their boards. I got tired of their stupidity so came in as a counterweight to these two idiots in the dark.

Kind Regards

The “SPECIALIST221;

[7kiwi] 14/10/2021 09:16

Riz,

Theoretically you are right about the operational gearing of the producers. But beware Cameco in the short term. Their gearing is actually negative, because their sales commitments exceed their production capacity at the moment.



For every $5 increase in the Uranium price, earnings fall $4m and cashflow $13m. How on earth did the world's second largest producer get itself in the position where its earnings move inversely to the price of its core product?



Take a look at GCL. London listed with large holdings in the developers (and some explorers and the big producers) that arguably have greater gearing to the upside.

SPUT has about $650m left of their ATM facility. I strongly suspect that will be used well before 1H22. They've raised $135m just in the past couple of days. But if they use it all, they can simply extend it. It only took a few trading days last time.

[idiotsinthe darkrizandlintard] 14/10/2021 08:37

If that happens then producers will be up 2-3x.

Exciting times ahead but there will be volatility.

[idiotsinthe darkrizandlintard] 14/10/2021 08:33

Remember Sprott recently increased authority to issue another $1bn - implying they have to buy $1bn of uranium oxide.

That will happen in H1 2022. If $330m odd moved the Price from 30-50 then the next move will see us nearer 80s. That might be only a technical move but by then yellow cake will be nearer 560p and possibly a good time for profit taking.

[weaverbeever] 14/10/2021 08:24

Ah. This is a good site. Thanks.

[idiotsinthe darkrizandlintard] 14/10/2021 08:24

Making a killing on this. Also own Uranium Energy corp, Energy Fuels, Cameco and Denison mines.

Our time - the time of Uranium has arrived.

Forecast prices are for $100 by 2023. Given the leverage inherent in producers (ie fixed cost nature of the business) future price increases past 40 will all flow down the PAnd L.

We are just getting started.

Makes sense to own the producers on top of the physical asset.

Kazatomprom currently 3% up which bodes well for US/Canada opening at 2:30.

[idiotsinthe darkrizandlintard] 14/10/2021 08:20

Best site to get uranium price is :

[swanvesta] 13/10/2021 22:05

Guys, to get regular spot price updates follow numerco on twitter:

[7kiwi] 13/10/2021 21:56

Oh, and I should have said, that deficit is before SPUT buying, and YCA and the juniors.

They are essentially bringing forward the supply crunch

[weaverbeever] 13/10/2021 21:55

Can someone point me in the direction of a reliable site to keep an eye on the spot price please

[7kiwi] 13/10/2021 21:54

Apparently closed at $46.50, still a big %-age increase

[7kiwi] 13/10/2021 19:22

Energiser,

I am not sure Morgan Stanley understand the market, either that or they are being deliberately obtuse. The supply-demand fundamentals are that there's a massive structural supply deficit.

Demand: ~175m lbs
Primary supply ~125m lbs
Secondary supply ~20 m lbs.

Deficit: ~30m lbs.

There have been deficits, albeit smaller, for the past few years and are forecast to remain for the next few years. At some point the inventory providing secondary supply will be consumed and as utilities ramp up (for example Japan restarts, US life extensions etc) then available secondary supply from under-feeding will dry up.

The next few years (probably 2022 and 2023 as peak) there's a big deficit. If that coincides with inventory drying up, there's going to be a big spike. It will take ~2 years to being McArthur River back on line and KAP have said they are going to exercise supply discipline through the end of 2023, and in any event it takes 12-18 months to get meaningful production increase from their wells.

There's a couple of US companies that might be able to produce some, but they are relatively small beer a 2-3 m lbs per year. But if they started now, it will be at least 12 months before they get production.

[energiser01] 13/10/2021 18:45

Never quite understood the statement “ Morgan Stanley warned that supply-demand fundamentals did not change over the last months to warrant the price surge”. Sprott buying and removing anything not nailed down, was not a catalyst. A skeptic/conspiracy theorist might think Sprott asked MS to put that statement out, so they could hoover up some more on any price weakness…̷0;dyor etc. etc…

[7kiwi] 13/10/2021 18:27

allstar,

Someone posted it on Twitter. Follow John Quakes (@quakes99).

[allstar_07] 13/10/2021 17:27

Where do you get the spot from? The trading economics link is always delayed.

[7kiwi] 13/10/2021 17:16

Blimey,

Spot back at $47.50.



That puts YCA at about a 1% premium by my calculations.

[bpdon] 13/10/2021 16:31

I skimmed 20% of my YCA at 380p as well @capo1211. The premium was massive (>20%) and was baking in a huge turn around in the U price. It felt like it was getting ahead of itself fuelled by last nights Sprott feasting.

But..... it looks like that bounce has arrived. What an incredible rebound on the spot price with a mid-price of $48 being reported. By my calcs that would have us back to a slight discount.

[bmcb5] 13/10/2021 15:43

$46 U traded. Bouncing back quickly

[capo1211] 13/10/2021 13:04

personally I took profits today. Share price seems to have run away from spot, hope to get back in later.

[jonwig] 12/10/2021 17:59

I see Macron is talking small nuclear reactors now. Our first should be operational around 2030.

[goodgrief] 12/10/2021 16:56

Reckon the general public's view of nuclear will change once their winter energy bills hit the door mat and/or the lights go out!

[cf456] 12/10/2021 16:49

"Soaring gas prices, worldwide energy shortages, fears for energy security and an ambition to have net zero carbon by 2050 have put nuclear power back on the map after a decade in the cold."