Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 08/9/2021 10:17

far from it.

they've got all the U308 they could possibly ever need - in the ground.

but such has been market since Fukushima that it has in many cheaper cases been to buy in the spot market rather than to mine it and process it to fill ongoing contracts.

when U308 is driven up to around $60 per pound which is fast happening, they'll just start mining more.

many factors are now coalescing to drive up the price of uranium and this is great for the whole market whether for Yellow Cake or others.

good luck all.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[7kiwi] 08/9/2021 09:35

What happens if SPUT clears out all of the available inventory?

[jonwig] 08/9/2021 07:12

zcapr - it's the usual story, operational gearing. The downside with miners is potentially bigger, and individual ones go bust. For non-professionals, GCL is certainly better than picking your own.

[zcaprd7] 08/9/2021 00:08

This has doubled since March 20, Geiger counter is a 5 bagger...

[quepassa] 07/9/2021 17:07

Sector Bellwether Cameco surging up another ten percent in last week to C$28.60.

And now +100% over 12 months.

The prize however goes to Energy Fuels which is now up 400% in twelve months from US$1.70 to $6.50.

Excellent news for the sector and a great read-across for YellowCake and physical U3o8


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[andyforster1] 06/9/2021 09:32

I think your over analysing things. YCA is trading inline with NAV so what's not to like it's doing what's it's supposed to. Sprott are doing the heavy lifting for the whole sector not just the physical vehicles. I would like YCA to put all their capital to work before the price runs away but piggybacking off Sput suits me just fine without the forex charges going in and out of an overseas index.

[hillock1] 06/9/2021 09:11

Thanks 7kiwi for the reply.


I just have the feeling that Yellowcake is in a awkward position, as

a) SPUT is a more popular and arguably, effective tools for investors to get exposure on Uranium, as much higher liquidity and listed in US and Canada (will move from US OTC to NYSE, if approved);

b) more aggressive policy of acquiring spot (although I don't know when SPUT growing bigger and bigger, SPUT can't find enough spot sellers).

c) SPUT is more transparent of daily reporting on their website, twitter and others.

That said, having a contract with KAP is a plus to secure the Uranium.

[opaldouglas] 06/9/2021 07:51

Sprot still have cash on hand, circa $15 to buy in the open market and another $120 of their ATM facility available. Will be interesting to see how quickly the ATM runs out and if they then create a new one.

I expect fuel buyers will be scrambling after last week to renew long term agreements over the coming months, given the slow take up over the last 12 months.

OD

[7kiwi] 05/9/2021 23:11

$22.8m.

I don't think that they have announced anything specifically. The management are quite entrepreneurial, so no doubt they are on the lookout for opportunities.

Although with SPUT being very aggressive, those opportunities are probably thin on the ground.

Worst case, they utilise the cash to partially exercise their $100m option with KAP next year.

[hillock1] 05/9/2021 20:59

Hi 7Kiwi,

do you know what's their plan to utilize its ~ USD 30 million, after the recent 2 million lbs purchase? (

Do you expect them to acquire more at the spot market? I guess given the recent development, the faster they use the cash, the better/cheaper.

[7kiwi] 05/9/2021 20:32

Barclays now promoting nuclear power.

[return_of_the_apeman] 04/9/2021 22:27

@7Kiwi - I am not calculating it as acurately as you :-)

Thanks for sharing your spreadsheet

[dartboard1] 04/9/2021 12:13

In fairness that's a 2% premium which is basically NAV ... give or take

[7kiwi] 04/9/2021 11:18

r_o_t_a,

How are you calculating your NAV? I make it £2.99.

[jonwig] 04/9/2021 10:51

return_of ...

I don't know whether YCA actually has a mandate for ATM share issues. What it does (a placing whenever there's a premium) is a bit clunky. Maybe it could get a mandate from shareholders, or maybe it would have to register as an investment trust. I don't know.

[return_of_the_apeman] 04/9/2021 10:08

Perhaps a bit of caution around miners is currently warranted (though I am not seeing any out there) as valuations for uranium miners are getting ahead of themselves in anticipation of spot being $50-$60, may be a bumpy ride for them

I am expecting that savvy uranium investors will at some point re-balance from miners to physical when they believe miners are finally too frothy and we may find miners falling while spot continues to rise

Most of this will be into sput, however better value is likely to be available here
Currently Sput trading at a 11.39% premium to nav, YCA only at nav

We shall see

[return_of_the_apeman] 04/9/2021 01:37

$39 spot
305p nav

Perhaps more noteworthy is that the amount of spot purchased by sput is growing rapidly, driven by demand

Sput purchase volumes (in lbs) for the last 4 days (approx.)
250k
500k
800k
1.4m

[7kiwi] 03/9/2021 17:34

Cantor Fitzgerald ups its target for YCA:




If it hits 375p, that would be equivalent to $49/lb if there's no premium. That would be even more rocket fuel for the equities.

[return_of_the_apeman] 03/9/2021 17:28

Indeed if that sort of capital flowed in, the spot price would be north of $200, we can but dream

I don't use reddit either, had a quick look, most of the posts in wsb seem very bullish but historical - given that this setup has been coming for a few years now that's probably not supprising

Something will be the catalyst to a massive correction in this market, perhaps it will be sput

[7kiwi] 03/9/2021 15:38

I agree apeman.

I don't follow Reddit, but I wonder if the WSB crowd are starting to get in.

The whole Uranium sector is probably worth less than Gamestop at its peak.

[return_of_the_apeman] 03/9/2021 15:15

Thanks for your detailed posts 7Kiwi

You say US inventories are getting very thin and I believe we can all see the ATM nature of SPUT is driving the spot price up daily - my guess is spot to be up above $39 today. If SPUT continue to buy at the current rate they will have increased demand in the US by circa 40% by xmas.

Wondering when utilities begin to jump to secure new supply contracts and if the US ones will be first perhaps leading to a dominio effect for utilities across the globe. I would not like to be caught napping and be the last utility to secure supply and would see little downside being the first at the moment in my niave understanding
The World Nuclear Association Symposium is meeting next week, perhaps that will focus the utilites minds

Twitter #uranium is gaining traction fueling money into mining etfs and sput at record rates

A squeeze is definitely happening now

Gla

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 03/9/2021 09:59

Thanks again 7kiwi.

Listening to the vid now yupawiese2010.

If Sprott keep taking money in, they can keep buying and stacking - further increasing the price and in turn the attraction of the Sprott vehicle.

A perfect storm perhaps :)

[yupawiese2010] 03/9/2021 09:32

Interesting interview with Justin Huhn, well worth listening to, lasts just over an hour.

[7kiwi] 03/9/2021 09:32

lst,

Covid had an impact. But not really any more.

Cameco have shut in MacArthur River and KAP are producing 20% below the target of their subsoil user agreements. They recently announced they will do that until 2023. They are deliberately doing that to bring the market back into balance.

Primary production is about 125mmlb/yr. Secondary supply is +/-25mmlb. Demand is 170-180mmlb. Up to now the gap has been met by consuming inventory. At some point that inventory has to run out, or go below levels that the utilities consider "safe". They need about 2 years of inventory to cover the lead time for fabrication of fuel.

It's difficult to get accurate global figures. But in the US, commercial inventories held by utilities were 107mmlbs in 2020, just above 2 x annual demand of 45-50mmlbs. Supplier inventories were 16mmlbs.

The supply deficit is continuing this year, so at some point, there is going to be a squeeze.

See Table S3a:

In the EU utility inventories were 2.75 yrs at the end of 2020. EU inventories have fallen each year for five years. They are well covered by contracts until 2025.

I can no longer find a link to the Euratom Annual Report 2020 online. But I did download one to my laptop earlier this year.

So, it looks like the US inventory is getting very thin. EU less so.