Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[andyforster1] 14/9/2021 07:26

Yes. The uranium price is going up and it doesn't look like it's stopping

[return_of_the_apeman] 14/9/2021 07:23

Still the best value to be found here
YCA around 3% premium to NAV (@348p)
YCA discount to Sprott around %25

Anyone think of a reason not to do a pairs trade, short Sprott, long YCA apart from a little currency risk?

Sprott's new $1billion atm is available from Thursday apparently

[7kiwi] 13/9/2021 19:47

I have read that the WSB advice is to first load up on Cameco call options, then go all in on SPUT to drive the U price and hence Cameco higher. Other producers and explorers should follow.

I do wonder if Nexgen is raising money - it's share price hasn't really moved with the others these past few days.

[return_of_the_apeman] 13/9/2021 19:26

Once spot is through resistance at 45 next resistance is 73 then 95 and blue sky at 140, I expect an urge to get off the bus at 73 will probably prove too much for me.

Wsb crew are apparently on it 7kiwi, lets see what they can muster, as the gap between spot and miner valuations grows I still expect more money to flow into sput

[the white house] 13/9/2021 13:41

North Shore showing up 8.6pcCNBC highlighting issue and targeted buying

[7kiwi] 13/9/2021 08:08

Blimey, I thought it might go up this morning, but I wasn't expecting nearly 20%.

[return_of_the_apeman] 13/9/2021 07:24

Get used to it

[andyforster1] 12/9/2021 19:07

https://youtu.be/XTCr62DURV8

[jonwig] 12/9/2021 06:57

True, but these are futures - derivatives not physical, and no-one even wants to trade or there would be a spread quote.

The single price is just indicative, and if I could buy 2026 uranium at $46, I'd accept. (Size will be five figures, so out of my league.)

[7kiwi] 11/9/2021 17:03

Jonwig,

Uranium futures are a very thin market. The prices do look low, but I suspect it's because nothing has traded recently.

[jonwig] 11/9/2021 09:29

has anyone seen this web page before?



Click the button "Load All" to see prices out to 2026. The prices look far too low (Aug 2026 $44.60) and there are no contracts at all reported.

[7kiwi] 10/9/2021 21:54

yupa,

Thank you.

[yupawiese2010] 10/9/2021 17:19

@7Kiwi - Here is a recording of YCA CEO speaking on Bloomberg today.

[7kiwi] 10/9/2021 15:36

SPUT has issued a revised prospectus on SEDAR taking the ATM facility to $1.3bn dollars, thereby adding $1bn of capacity.

Game on.

[7kiwi] 10/9/2021 14:00

Apparently the CEO of YCA is on BNN Bloomberg at 16:10 UK time. I don't know how to access it though. If anyone has a link I would be very grateful

[7kiwi] 10/9/2021 11:33

Kopernik Global Investors add to their position in YCA:

[quepassa] 10/9/2021 08:01

Excellent article in today's FT on page 13 by their highly regarded commodities' journalists Neil Hume and Henry Sanderson, headed " Uranium prices soar to highest since 2014 as investors scoop up nuclear fuel."

One reference in particular to Japan in this well researched FT article caught my attention:-

"Japanese utility groups rose sharply yesterday after Fumio Kishida, a leading contender to become the country's next prime minister, said restarting nuclear power plants was necessary to achieve the country's net zero goals.Nuclear power was shut down in Japan after the Fukushima Daiichi disaster in 2011 and has only slowly been restored".

If Japan soon start turning back on significantly more of their nuclear generators, what a further price stimulus that will be to U308 with end users needing to commence buying and contracting wholesale supplies in addition to the heavy buying by the financial players.

See FT article for full context and further comment on the role being played by Yellow Cake plc and Sprott.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[jonwig] 10/9/2021 06:09

The uranium story has reached the FT front page. Some bullet points from the article:

The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust has snapped up around 6m pounds of physical uranium, worth around $240m, since launching on July 19. currently holds 24m pounds of uranium, worth around $1bn,

Global mine supply is expected to be around 125m pounds in 2021.

Pressure on utilities who need to secure supplies of the commodity for electricity generation.

China is planning a big increase to its nuclear power capacity over the next decade.

Other financial players have also been buying the commodity in a bet that its price will rise. Yellow Cake Plc, a vehicle listed in London in 2018, holds around 16m pounds of uranium.


“This has been a key driver of the 30 per cent increase in the price of the metal in 2021,” Nick Lawson, chief executive at brokerage Ocean Wall, said.

Demand for uranium is expected to climb from around 162m pounds this year to 206m pounds in 2030 — and even further to 292m pounds in 2040 — according to the World Nuclear Association, largely driven by increased power generation in China as Beijing seeks to cut emissions.

At the same time, the supply of uranium is set to fall 15 per cent by 2025 and by 50 per cent by 2030 due to a lack of investment in new mines.

“Financial players are clearly accelerating price discovery, but this would not be occurring if there was not a fundamental and substantial deficit,” analysts at Canaccord Genuity said.

Fumio Kishida, a leading contender to become the country’s next prime minister, said restarting nuclear power plants was necessary to achieve the country’s net zero goals. Nuclear power was shut down in Japan after the Fukushima Daiichi disaster in 2011 and has only slowly been restored.


Currently listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, the Sprott uranium trust is also looking to list on the New York Stock Exchange next year, which could spur further purchases, according to Canaccord.

If investors keep buying uranium, analysts expect utility companies will come under pressure to replace long-term supply agreements before they expire.

At the moment, long-term contracts cover 98 per cent of the uranium needed by US utility companies. But that figure drops to 84 per cent next year, and 55 per cent by 2025, according to Yellow Cake.

“There are now no meaningful volumes available,” said Nick Clarke, founder at Curzon Uranium. “Utilities will be forced to re-evaluate their procurement strategies.”

[strollingmolby] 09/9/2021 17:45

I created a Sprott Physical Uranium Trust thread if anyone is interested...

[7kiwi] 09/9/2021 15:35

The commercial director of Kazatomprom weighs into the Uranium inventory debate.

There might not be enough guaranteed supply for everybody



In another slide he confirmed KAP is active in the spot market to "ensure its delivery schedule and inventory levels".

[return_of_the_apeman] 09/9/2021 09:49

Current price below nav :-)

[goodgrief] 09/9/2021 09:13

Interesting background stuff; the analyst reckons a price of $70/lb needed to bring new production on stream.

Adam Rozencwajg: Neglected Uranium Market Setting Up for Higher Prices

[7kiwi] 08/9/2021 16:35

Press report of the new WNA report. Near time supplies are tight and the market needs to incentivise new mines to be built. The report doesn't include a quantitative analysis of SMRs.

So, overall, not including the demand from inventory funds or SMRs.

[7kiwi] 08/9/2021 16:01

To answer the earlier question, today's AGM authorised the use of the surplus cash to buy more Uranium. Heaven knows why the previous paperwork didn't give that authority.

See Resolution 13.