Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[7kiwi] 18/9/2021 01:09

Depending on who is doing the prices, spot U either ended slightly up or slightly down today. Ended at $50.75/lb on Numerco.

For only the second time since the ATM was started, SPUT closed at a discount to NAV.

YCA also closed at around 6% discount to NAV @ ~390p.

[7kiwi] 17/9/2021 20:45

And KAP is in talks with Sprott to supply SPUT next year.

[return_of_the_apeman] 17/9/2021 19:52

China will already have some stockpile already however...
Bloomberg announces

Kazatomprom in talks with China to fill it's 26,000ton strategic facility by 2026 -
Lol - 26,000 tons please

Kaz also reckon that YCA will excersise their right and take the whole of next years supply straight away on Jan 1st

[return_of_the_apeman] 17/9/2021 16:16

I have bought 5k more

Where else can you buy a £1 of u308 for 91p?

[return_of_the_apeman] 17/9/2021 16:13

I make that a nav of 397-398 !

[return_of_the_apeman] 17/9/2021 16:09

Spot up now to 51.75

[kinbasket] 17/9/2021 11:01

Worth a listen. All the players in one podcast..



"On this episode of Trillions, Eric and Joel speak with the two people behind $URNM: Tim Rotolo, founder and CEO of North Shore Indices, and Michael Alkin, CIO of Sachem Cove Partners. Joining the group is also John Ciampaglia, CEO of Canada-based Sprott Asset Management, which offers the only physically backed Uranium fund. They discuss the current surge in prices, how the market works and the long-term prospects of nuclear power."

[7kiwi] 17/9/2021 00:27

There does seem to be an emerging pattern of weak Thursdays followed by very strong Fridays.

SPUT up to 9.4m lbs bought under the ATM, with 1.45m bought today.

[return_of_the_apeman] 16/9/2021 23:14

Puts nav at 391-392 for starters

Good luck trying to buy any in the first 20mins tomorrow while the big orders get filled

Gla

[7kiwi] 16/9/2021 21:18

According to BPI, U3O8 closed at $51 today (+2).

[7kiwi] 16/9/2021 18:11

Rocketblast. Nothing ever goes up in a straight line, so we might expect pullbacks from time to time.

Many of the posters on this thread have done proper research and understand the supply-demand dynamics of the Uranium market. There's a massive supply deficit for years ahead. Inventory from Japan and other places is rapidly being used up or bought up by Sprott.

Even Cameco re-starting McArthur River and KAP bringing back its production to full strength won't be enough to close the gap. With existing mine depletion, the proposed mines from NXE, FCU and DML might not even be enough to close the deficit in the mid-2020's.

In the meantime, the demand models from the WNA did not include the extent of the Japan restart of their plants, the continued operation of the Illinois plants, nor the upcoming SMR revolution.

Hydrogen may well be a part of our energy future. But it needs electricity to be produced. Where's that power going to come from? The answer is nuclear so that excess nuclear power can be used for electrolysis when demand is low.

I make YCA's NAV to be 384p at $50 spot and cable at 1.378.

For NAV to be 275p, U price would have to fall back to $35.50. I don't think we'll see that price again for many years, maybe never (as long as we don't get a complete financial meltdown).

[7kiwi] 16/9/2021 18:01

Apparently $50 traded on spot market earlier today. A 9-year high. Maybe Sprott's buyer had the morning off.

[rocketblast] 16/9/2021 16:22

YCA looks over bought so expect pullback as profit takers move in. COP will still drive Hydrogen as Nuclear seen to be too dangerous. 275p a fair price as ramping slows down. Be careful not to get trapped as falls start…

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 16/9/2021 16:14

Yes indeed. Once the spot price is revealed over night.

[return_of_the_apeman] 16/9/2021 16:09

Odds on a gap up tomorrow morning here?

;-)

[return_of_the_apeman] 16/9/2021 15:29

Spot still at $49 according to numerco, YCA at approx 4-5% discount to nav now for those with any money left down the back of the sofa

[7kiwi] 16/9/2021 14:07

bppdon,

I agree it's not a given. It might not even be necessary.

But there's 10m people on Wall St Bets and they are now taking an interest. It only needs 100,000 of them to decide to put $10,000 to use in the Uranium sector, and there's your billion $.

The really good thing is despite the recent rise, spot prices are probably still below the level where it makes sense for Cameco to restart McArthur River. It's all very well the investment banks setting their target prices based on All-In-Sustaining Costs, but what about profit. If AISC for MR is say $40, then $80 is required to get a 50% gross margin. That margin has to fund SG&A, return on sunk costs, future exploration, development and dividends for shareholders.

And even $80/lb won't generate a proper profit for the highest cost producers.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 16/9/2021 13:37

Kiwi
Yeah I agree.
The unknown is.. how much U3O8 is sitting ready to be sold on the spot market.
We'll find out over the next week or two as sput continues buying.

Will inventory materialise or will each hold onto their stash - thus increasing the value of their holding.

[bpdon] 16/9/2021 13:30

Yeah, agree with that @7kiwi. It does feel like there is a relatively clear path to > $70 given the impact the existing ATM spend had and the current momentum across the sector. Sellers will stop selling to let the price drift up because they can see a willing buyer at any price.

That said, most are assuming that the extra $1bn added to the ATM will get used up. That will require a lot of cash flowing into the fund at a premium. I'm positioned relatively big in this sector (including YCA) so I hope the ATM does get fully used and extended further..... but it's not a given.

[7kiwi] 16/9/2021 13:19

P.S. They had $50m in cash as of last night. I don't think they will even be able to source 1m lbs at $50. They only bought 100,000lbs yesterday.

[7kiwi] 16/9/2021 13:17

lst,

I think we need to look at what they can do with the nearly $1bn left of the existing ATM first.

$1bn would equate to 20m lbs at $50/lb. I simply don't think there's 20m of inventory available, certainly not at $50. So I think we're already in a place where the U3O8 price could move quite explosively.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 16/9/2021 10:46

If and it's a big if.
If SPUT can make this much difference in a month or so with $300m then where will it go with another $3-4bn added to the fund once it gets going.

Proper rampy post but I couldn't resist. Ooo exciting :)

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 16/9/2021 10:34

GCL: yesterday's NAV.. today's is probably up around 8% :)

[return_of_the_apeman] 16/9/2021 10:17

In contrast GCL reported a nav of 54.29 and are still up 8.64% today at around 60p

[return_of_the_apeman] 16/9/2021 10:08

Any dip below nav getting bought up

Added 5k

Gla

(Edit added another 5k as well)