Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[return_of_the_apeman] 21/9/2021 20:53

Russia to commission 15 new nuclear power units

[jwilkes1] 21/9/2021 08:10

Anyone who wants another fast riser ahead. Look at JKX. Produces natural gas which is the hottest commodity about… after uranium of course :) Earns $700 per 1000m3 gas, the sold 120m in h1. Will be nearer to $90m net cash end of q4 (has no debt) and current market cap only £75m. Really starting to re-rate anyway

[jwilkes1] 21/9/2021 08:07

Some common sense coming through in the share price at $50, should be nearer to £3.80 then

[jonwig] 21/9/2021 07:54

FT yesterday (highlights):

The head of Sprott Asset Management has hit back at suggestions that its aggressive buying of uranium could corner the market for the nuclear fuel and spark regulatory interest.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Sprott chief executive John Ciampaglia said the physical uranium trust that Sprott launched in August would help rebalance the 180m-lb-a-year uranium market — driving prices to a level that spurred greater production of the radioactive material.

Sprott’s stockpiling has raised concerns that the trust may come to dominate the physical uranium market. Such a scenario could in turn draw regulatory scrutiny in the US and Europe because of the strategic importance of uranium to the military and to electricity generation.

“Sprott could single-handedly remove all supply, thereby preventing it from reaching the hands of nuclear utilities,” said Nick Lawson, chief executive of Ocean Wall, a London-based advisory firm.

Ciampaglia said he did not think it possible for the trust to monopolise the market. He pointed to an abundance of mothballed uranium mines, including Cameco’s McArthur River, which were likely to be revived with higher prices.

“The question is what’s the price that gets it out of the ground,” Ciampaglia said. Industry experts say a price of about $60 a pound will be required to stimulate supply and meet long-term demand for uranium.

“It needs to remain at that price or higher for quite some time,” said Harris Kupperman, founder of hedge fund Praetorian Capital. “You need utilities willing to contract for years before a bank is willing to finance a mine coming back on line.”

Asked if Sprott would seek to sell any of its uranium hoard, Ciampaglia said that this was impossible due to the structure of the trust.

“We buy uranium and we store it and the trust operates in perpetuity. We don’t make any market calls,” he said. “We don’t say ‘oh my gosh the price of uranium has doubled so we are going to sell it and make a big profit and give everybody their money back’.”

[return_of_the_apeman] 21/9/2021 07:53

Hi jonwig

Sorry I might not have explained my thinking that well

If they buy spot when they are trading at a premium, it would seem also valuable to be able to buy back and cancel shrs when at a discount

[j4ckthehat] 20/9/2021 21:12

Wow, check Sprott physical Uranium trust. What a turnaround

[jonwig] 20/9/2021 17:37

rota - they had a buyback programme which ended lastN ovember. I don't know whether it's been renewed. They do have a programme for allotting new shares (if a premium) and buying more uranium.

[bpdon] 20/9/2021 15:19

I had top sliced 20% of my GCL holding late on Friday. Like kiwi I have added a third of that cash to my existing YCA holdings this afternoon.

I think/hope YCA is already discounting the worst of this sector and spot pull back.

[return_of_the_apeman] 20/9/2021 15:05

Spot holding up well at 50.5 :-)

Wonder if they are allowed to buy back shrs when trading at a discount to nav? Would seem to be a good use of the cash

[this tea tastes of chicken] 20/9/2021 13:46

URNM down 17% at th open. We were promised volatility and sure enough here it is. Adding YCA.L

[bpdon] 20/9/2021 13:34

Tough day. That discount to NAV looks like its currently pricing in $43 U price which is circa 17% below current spot.

[7kiwi] 20/9/2021 12:37

It's also in their investor pres, but they bought more uranium after the pres.

[7kiwi] 20/9/2021 12:34

jw,

This is my spreadsheet.



as above from bpdon, but less the derivative liability.

[bpdon] 20/9/2021 12:13

Something like total U lbs (15860000) x $ U price / forex rate (1.38)

Add the cash balance to the above and divide by the number of shares (153994565 is the number I have)

[jwilkes1] 20/9/2021 12:00

Can someone tell me the simply calculation for working out the nav please . Thank you

[bpdon] 20/9/2021 09:39

Pretty sure SPUT was still buying U from the spot market using existing cash during those couple of days - they couldn't sell any new units to raise more cash though. Although I see from the @thealexw excellent Tweets that they in fact bought none on the 13th.

@thealexw posted on Friday that SPUT has about ¢5.5M cash on hand at the end of last week. Enough to mop up another circa 100,000 lbs. That's not a lot relative to the fire power deployed so far this month.

I wouldn't be surprised if SPUT and the spot price cools for a bit. I hope its very temporary given the seasonality.

[7kiwi] 20/9/2021 09:01

Picked up a few more on this dip. Rude not to at such a wide discount. The miners dipped in Oz overnight, but GCL share price holding up quite well. Uranium spot stable and YCA goes down quite a lot. Go figure. Taken the opportunity to balance more to YCA than GCL.

[return_of_the_apeman] 20/9/2021 08:51

Agree bpdon, however when sput was unable to buy last week while it upped it's atm to 1.3B, spot still rose as there are other buyers

I expect some of the dip here is due to the slide in miners, which is unwarranted

If spot slides by 10% then fair enough this dip is correct - just can't see it happening imo

[bpdon] 20/9/2021 08:37

Presumably the market pre-empting a dip on the spot price, and YCA NAV, with the expectation the SPUT bid dries up for a bit.

[jwilkes1] 20/9/2021 08:33

What on earth is going on this morning ???

Uranium is above $50!!!

[return_of_the_apeman] 20/9/2021 07:17

I make discount to nav here
390p - 348p = 42p
42p/390p = 14.4%

If spot continues to rise this discount will increase, would expect it to snap back to nav sharply at some point

[7kiwi] 18/9/2021 00:09

Depending on who is doing the prices, spot U either ended slightly up or slightly down today. Ended at $50.75/lb on Numerco.

For only the second time since the ATM was started, SPUT closed at a discount to NAV.

YCA also closed at around 6% discount to NAV @ ~390p.

[7kiwi] 17/9/2021 19:45

And KAP is in talks with Sprott to supply SPUT next year.