Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[bmcb5] 08/9/2021 15:21

bmcb525 Feb '21 - 19:49 - 456 of 626 Edit
I’ve subscribed for 400. Happy to see them buying more of the yellow stuff
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I've only just realised that I never actually received those shares in my account. Turns out that I forgot to update my details at PrimaryBid, so they sent the shares to an old Selftrade account that I thought I had closed. Sefltrade accounts then got moved to Interactive Investor. I guess I must have been sent some II account details at some point. Time to dig through old email accounts...

[7kiwi] 08/9/2021 13:51

Good for you jwilkes. The price often moves temporarily to a significant premium, then falls back in line. I had last night's NAV at 308p.

[7kiwi] 08/9/2021 13:49

This is a slide from the World Nuclear Association symposium taking place today.

That "Commercial Inventory" Line looks suspiciously like a "plug". According to twitter a question was asked about the "secondary demand" from the likes of SPUT and YCA. Their demand is not included in the calculations.

#uraniumsqueeze

[jwilkes1] 08/9/2021 12:26

Thanks Kiwi. I wondered why it spiked to 324 yesterday then when uranium was $38.70, now $40. I’ve just bought my first amount at 313

[7kiwi] 08/9/2021 12:16

Jwilkes,

It's fairly easy to replicate the reckoner they put in their investor presentation. Just update with the spot price and £:$ rate.

[7kiwi] 08/9/2021 12:14

Que Passa,

It will take at least two years to get MacArthur River back up to anything like full production.

Both CCO & KAP are buying on the spot market to fulfill their contractual commitments and replenish their own inventory.

We know that the market is tightening because there has been a primary supply deficit for a couple of years now. The deficit is being covered by drawing down inventory, which is finite.

If, I recognise that it's a fairly big if, SPUT buys enough to exhaust the spot market, then we could be in for a GME style squeeze.

[jwilkes1] 08/9/2021 12:13

Hi all, looking to buy some and just trying to gauge how to calculate the NAV price movements when Uranium moves ? I can see it’s above $40 now and YCA doesn’t seem to have moved today? Many thanks indeed

[goodgrief] 08/9/2021 12:00

Saltraider... exactly.

[jonwig] 08/9/2021 11:57

GG - as saltraiders says, "care and maintenance".

[saltraider] 08/9/2021 11:52

No expert on mining operating economics but there must be substantial fixed/overhead costs that have to covered whether the mine is producing or not. And even if marginal cost is very low and less than the prevailing market price doesn't mean it is worth mining. It may well be worth more in the ground than in the market.

[goodgrief] 08/9/2021 11:31

If production costs are marginal, then why did Cameco make a net loss of $38m in Q2 2021?With increasing demand from utilities needing to renew long-term contracts alongside the Sprott effect, the outlook's rosy!

[jonwig] 08/9/2021 11:02

GoodGrief - what do you mean by the "real cost of production"?

Once a mine is operational, the marginal cost of the next pound (C1 cash cost) is quite small. For Kazatomprom (KAP), it's around USD 10 per lb. Of course, it doesn't literally mine, it leaches.

Under a Soviet-style regime, KAP would have boosted production in order to bankrupt competitors with mines. It would have failed to maintain plant or invest in new, of course! Competitors would just sit it out rather than compete.

KAP is still producing at a reduced level, but creating its own inventories and releasing product to satisfy existing contracts, as well as its agreement with YCA. It is of course aligned with other market participants in working for higher prices.

EDIT: the "real cost of production" (= C1+ maintenance + capex) varies enormously from one company to another.

[goodgrief] 08/9/2021 09:26

For as long as the spot price of uranium remains below the real cost of production, there's little point mining it!

[quepassa] 08/9/2021 09:17

far from it.

they've got all the U308 they could possibly ever need - in the ground.

but such has been market since Fukushima that it has in many cheaper cases been to buy in the spot market rather than to mine it and process it to fill ongoing contracts.

when U308 is driven up to around $60 per pound which is fast happening, they'll just start mining more.

many factors are now coalescing to drive up the price of uranium and this is great for the whole market whether for Yellow Cake or others.

good luck all.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[7kiwi] 08/9/2021 08:35

What happens if SPUT clears out all of the available inventory?

[jonwig] 08/9/2021 06:12

zcapr - it's the usual story, operational gearing. The downside with miners is potentially bigger, and individual ones go bust. For non-professionals, GCL is certainly better than picking your own.

[zcaprd7] 07/9/2021 23:08

This has doubled since March 20, Geiger counter is a 5 bagger...

[quepassa] 07/9/2021 16:07

Sector Bellwether Cameco surging up another ten percent in last week to C$28.60.

And now +100% over 12 months.

The prize however goes to Energy Fuels which is now up 400% in twelve months from US$1.70 to $6.50.

Excellent news for the sector and a great read-across for YellowCake and physical U3o8


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[andyforster1] 06/9/2021 08:32

I think your over analysing things. YCA is trading inline with NAV so what's not to like it's doing what's it's supposed to. Sprott are doing the heavy lifting for the whole sector not just the physical vehicles. I would like YCA to put all their capital to work before the price runs away but piggybacking off Sput suits me just fine without the forex charges going in and out of an overseas index.

[hillock1] 06/9/2021 08:11

Thanks 7kiwi for the reply.


I just have the feeling that Yellowcake is in a awkward position, as

a) SPUT is a more popular and arguably, effective tools for investors to get exposure on Uranium, as much higher liquidity and listed in US and Canada (will move from US OTC to NYSE, if approved);

b) more aggressive policy of acquiring spot (although I don't know when SPUT growing bigger and bigger, SPUT can't find enough spot sellers).

c) SPUT is more transparent of daily reporting on their website, twitter and others.

That said, having a contract with KAP is a plus to secure the Uranium.

[opaldouglas] 06/9/2021 06:51

Sprot still have cash on hand, circa $15 to buy in the open market and another $120 of their ATM facility available. Will be interesting to see how quickly the ATM runs out and if they then create a new one.

I expect fuel buyers will be scrambling after last week to renew long term agreements over the coming months, given the slow take up over the last 12 months.

OD

[7kiwi] 05/9/2021 22:11

$22.8m.

I don't think that they have announced anything specifically. The management are quite entrepreneurial, so no doubt they are on the lookout for opportunities.

Although with SPUT being very aggressive, those opportunities are probably thin on the ground.

Worst case, they utilise the cash to partially exercise their $100m option with KAP next year.

[hillock1] 05/9/2021 19:59

Hi 7Kiwi,

do you know what's their plan to utilize its ~ USD 30 million, after the recent 2 million lbs purchase? (

Do you expect them to acquire more at the spot market? I guess given the recent development, the faster they use the cash, the better/cheaper.