Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[7kiwi] 24/9/2021 17:04

Discount closed a bit, but the share price has fallen along with the U price.

[return_of_the_apeman] 23/9/2021 19:15

That would put a target of 600p here by xmas

[7kiwi] 23/9/2021 14:19

New Cannacord report into the Uranium sector. Forecasts price spike to $80/lb in 4Q21 and long term $65/lb. Lots of miner upgrades too.

[return_of_the_apeman] 23/9/2021 11:13

At yesterdays lower run rate of 200Klbs purchased by sprott, they will eat up %40 of all globally produced uranium per annum. Sod all new supply will be available until 2023.

If they can maintain an average of 400Klbs it's %80

[return_of_the_apeman] 22/9/2021 16:06

Spot #uranium 4975/5025 USc/Lb #U3O8 (Delivery at CMO , Unch) CMO = CVD 0c/Lb, CMO = CMX 0c/Lb See [...]

I guess sprott will buy just enough so as not to move the spot price up too much so they can maintain a premium, so cash will build there kind of like a coiled spring 🤷‍a92;️

[return_of_the_apeman] 22/9/2021 14:17

In the last cycle the miners consolodated around this spot price then rose sharply when spot was around $70

The 100-150 quote came from the twitterati, sorry should have checked it first

[this tea tastes of chicken] 22/9/2021 14:17

It IS trading at a discount.

[7kiwi] 22/9/2021 11:20

bpdon,

Yes, I watched that last night. I too didn't hear him talk about selling into spot. Quite the opposite actually.

[bpdon] 22/9/2021 11:12

Grant Isaac from Cameco has been quoted a lot since this session on Monday (recording expires on 27th):

I didn't hear any reference to selling at spot $100-$150 but I thought he sounded very positive about Sprott and general market conditions. "Long term contracting begets long term contracting". In other words, once some utilities start their contracting cycle, the rest will wake up and start queuing at the door.

Regarding Sprott: it was inevitable that the initial ramp has faded. I imagine we will see a bit of chop for some days/weeks. It will be interesting to see if they can keep squeezing enough premiums out during this consolidation to allow them to buy enough to hold the spot market steady.

[7kiwi] 22/9/2021 09:46

rota,

Where's that Cameco quote?

They have very few (if any) spare pounds until MR comes back on line.

[return_of_the_apeman] 22/9/2021 08:19

Sprott is currently trading at a premium, has $8.2M on hand to purchase with today and $875M left to go in this current ATM

Cameco said yesterday that it would cash in some lbs into the spot market when spot in the range $100 -$150

[return_of_the_apeman] 21/9/2021 22:10

USA to work with China on new reactors?

[return_of_the_apeman] 21/9/2021 21:53

Russia to commission 15 new nuclear power units

[jwilkes1] 21/9/2021 09:10

Anyone who wants another fast riser ahead. Look at JKX. Produces natural gas which is the hottest commodity about… after uranium of course :) Earns $700 per 1000m3 gas, the sold 120m in h1. Will be nearer to $90m net cash end of q4 (has no debt) and current market cap only £75m. Really starting to re-rate anyway

[jwilkes1] 21/9/2021 09:07

Some common sense coming through in the share price at $50, should be nearer to £3.80 then

[jonwig] 21/9/2021 08:54

FT yesterday (highlights):

The head of Sprott Asset Management has hit back at suggestions that its aggressive buying of uranium could corner the market for the nuclear fuel and spark regulatory interest.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Sprott chief executive John Ciampaglia said the physical uranium trust that Sprott launched in August would help rebalance the 180m-lb-a-year uranium market — driving prices to a level that spurred greater production of the radioactive material.

Sprott’s stockpiling has raised concerns that the trust may come to dominate the physical uranium market. Such a scenario could in turn draw regulatory scrutiny in the US and Europe because of the strategic importance of uranium to the military and to electricity generation.

“Sprott could single-handedly remove all supply, thereby preventing it from reaching the hands of nuclear utilities,” said Nick Lawson, chief executive of Ocean Wall, a London-based advisory firm.

Ciampaglia said he did not think it possible for the trust to monopolise the market. He pointed to an abundance of mothballed uranium mines, including Cameco’s McArthur River, which were likely to be revived with higher prices.

“The question is what’s the price that gets it out of the ground,” Ciampaglia said. Industry experts say a price of about $60 a pound will be required to stimulate supply and meet long-term demand for uranium.

“It needs to remain at that price or higher for quite some time,” said Harris Kupperman, founder of hedge fund Praetorian Capital. “You need utilities willing to contract for years before a bank is willing to finance a mine coming back on line.”

Asked if Sprott would seek to sell any of its uranium hoard, Ciampaglia said that this was impossible due to the structure of the trust.

“We buy uranium and we store it and the trust operates in perpetuity. We don’t make any market calls,” he said. “We don’t say ‘oh my gosh the price of uranium has doubled so we are going to sell it and make a big profit and give everybody their money back’.”

[return_of_the_apeman] 21/9/2021 08:53

Hi jonwig

Sorry I might not have explained my thinking that well

If they buy spot when they are trading at a premium, it would seem also valuable to be able to buy back and cancel shrs when at a discount

[j4ckthehat] 20/9/2021 22:12

Wow, check Sprott physical Uranium trust. What a turnaround

[jonwig] 20/9/2021 18:37

rota - they had a buyback programme which ended lastN ovember. I don't know whether it's been renewed. They do have a programme for allotting new shares (if a premium) and buying more uranium.

[bpdon] 20/9/2021 16:19

I had top sliced 20% of my GCL holding late on Friday. Like kiwi I have added a third of that cash to my existing YCA holdings this afternoon.

I think/hope YCA is already discounting the worst of this sector and spot pull back.

[return_of_the_apeman] 20/9/2021 16:05

Spot holding up well at 50.5 :-)

Wonder if they are allowed to buy back shrs when trading at a discount to nav? Would seem to be a good use of the cash

[this tea tastes of chicken] 20/9/2021 14:46

URNM down 17% at th open. We were promised volatility and sure enough here it is. Adding YCA.L