Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[7kiwi] 01/10/2021 20:30

The case for nuclear. And why wind and solar are not worth bothering with

[the white house] 01/10/2021 07:27

Oklahoma adding again, previous 2 major announcements other US also adding

[quepassa] 30/9/2021 18:18

Global sentiment - for two decades staunchly against- is rapidly turning back in favour of uranium as a major source of acceptable and reliable power generation.

Smaller reactors and modular reactors are being developed alongside the major stations.

There is still a lot further to go for U3o8.

COP26 will put a further nail in the coffin for coal and as a consequence fundamental demand from end-users for U308 will soar.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[j4ckthehat] 30/9/2021 09:29

https://flipboard.com/article/next-china-coal-crunch-knocks-out-the-lights/f-2c5d066f18%2Fbloomberg.com

[bpdon] 30/9/2021 07:22

Sterling weakness against USD (now 1.343) is helping support the NAV which is still at a small discount.

[weaverbeever] 29/9/2021 20:41

I found this on money week. Its based on when the share price was 3.60. But it's decent information (apologies if this has already been shared) The safest way to play uranium right now is through betting on the spot price of the metal itself – it's less racy, but your risk is lower. London-listed Yellowcake Plc (LSE: YCA) has been set up with this purpose in mind. It is, basically, a uranium holding company – you buy the shares and hope that the value of its uranium stockpiles increases.It is currently trading at £3.60 which gives it a market cap around $550m. It has 13,855,601 pounds of uranium. At $45/lb that's $624m, plus another $90m in cash and assets, so $714m. At a $1.36 exchange rate that gives us a net asset value (NAV) of around £455m. So it's trading at a premium.There are times when it trades at a discount, so personally, I'd wait. But the downside of Yellowcake is considerably less that of a miner, so maybe, if you don't own any, it's worth a nibble.You want to own some uranium in your portfolio; nuclear's potential is enormous. But I've seen what happens with uranium stocks – fortune favours the patient.

[7kiwi] 28/9/2021 09:18

New YCA investor pres out:



In August, SPUT in its own bought more than the entire spot market volume in July.

[bpdon] 25/9/2021 09:54

I have just been referring to old notes and trying to think through some factual context to the Sprott buying spree.

According to YCA in 2020 the total spot market volume for the year was 92.2M pounds. Assuming a 260 trading day year, that is an average daily volume of about 350,000 lbs.

According to Brandon Munro (Bannerman), the average daily volume on the spot market between 1 April and 31 July 2021 was about 250,000 lbs. That's 84 trading days and circa 21 million pounds in total.

Going by @theAlexW data, over 25 days Sprott bought an average of 412,489 pounds per day for a total of 10.3M pounds.

Even if Sprott bought nothing more until the end of the year (another 67 trading days), in their 25 day spending spree, they would still have gobbled up an average of >110K pounds per day which is a third of the total daily spot market in 2020 and nearly a half of Brandon Munros 2021 daily spot numbers.

Investor/speculator momentum has burst for now and I think we have to wait for a new catalyst i.e. a new wave of capital chasing a cyclical and/or seasonal move. Such frantic surges followed by silence on a thin market will create volatility though.

[7kiwi] 24/9/2021 22:03

Bpdon, I was just going to say similar, but you beat me to it.

I make the premium 2.4% with spot at $45 as per Numerco. Bit the BAP is $43.63, which would take it to a discount

[bpdon] 24/9/2021 18:14

According to numerco spot has now drifted to $45 unfortunately. So the YCA discount is currently nearer 3%.

[7kiwi] 24/9/2021 16:07

rota,

Yes, that's the inconsistency in the Cannacord report. $80/lb would equate to c. £6 NAV for YCA, but their target is £5.05. Go figure. I think their target is based on their long term price of $65.

[7kiwi] 24/9/2021 16:04

Discount closed a bit, but the share price has fallen along with the U price.

[return_of_the_apeman] 23/9/2021 18:15

That would put a target of 600p here by xmas

[7kiwi] 23/9/2021 13:19

New Cannacord report into the Uranium sector. Forecasts price spike to $80/lb in 4Q21 and long term $65/lb. Lots of miner upgrades too.

[return_of_the_apeman] 23/9/2021 10:13

At yesterdays lower run rate of 200Klbs purchased by sprott, they will eat up %40 of all globally produced uranium per annum. Sod all new supply will be available until 2023.

If they can maintain an average of 400Klbs it's %80

[return_of_the_apeman] 22/9/2021 15:06

Spot #uranium 4975/5025 USc/Lb #U3O8 (Delivery at CMO , Unch) CMO = CVD 0c/Lb, CMO = CMX 0c/Lb See [...]

I guess sprott will buy just enough so as not to move the spot price up too much so they can maintain a premium, so cash will build there kind of like a coiled spring 🤷‍a92;️

[return_of_the_apeman] 22/9/2021 13:17

In the last cycle the miners consolodated around this spot price then rose sharply when spot was around $70

The 100-150 quote came from the twitterati, sorry should have checked it first

[this tea tastes of chicken] 22/9/2021 13:17

It IS trading at a discount.

[7kiwi] 22/9/2021 10:20

bpdon,

Yes, I watched that last night. I too didn't hear him talk about selling into spot. Quite the opposite actually.

[bpdon] 22/9/2021 10:12

Grant Isaac from Cameco has been quoted a lot since this session on Monday (recording expires on 27th):

I didn't hear any reference to selling at spot $100-$150 but I thought he sounded very positive about Sprott and general market conditions. "Long term contracting begets long term contracting". In other words, once some utilities start their contracting cycle, the rest will wake up and start queuing at the door.

Regarding Sprott: it was inevitable that the initial ramp has faded. I imagine we will see a bit of chop for some days/weeks. It will be interesting to see if they can keep squeezing enough premiums out during this consolidation to allow them to buy enough to hold the spot market steady.

[7kiwi] 22/9/2021 08:46

rota,

Where's that Cameco quote?

They have very few (if any) spare pounds until MR comes back on line.