Xpediator Share Discussion Threads

[gleach23] 13/5/2022 10:56

Would be nice mfhmfh...I noticed few shares available to buy yesterday whereas could sell plenty so topped up on the spreads. Historically this has been my best trading share but currently well underwater.

[mfhmfh] 13/5/2022 10:49

seller cleared?

[svend2] 25/4/2022 20:56

gleash23 thanks for the ST post. Totally agree let's hope Blyth stays the course and Wim is able to add/bring onboard some new senior management with #skin# in the game and who is cable to add or expand/extend onto the company's eastern footprint to facilitate its full potential targets i.e. Plus £1B Turnover say even within a 3-5 years horizon? meanwhile, the consolidation inside the forwarding sector is in my view inevitable. The next step is bound to be the electrification of the freight forwarding fleet and this in my opinion could be a golden nugget going forward.

[gleach23] 21/4/2022 21:28

Not sure what Whiteling's holding was but Blyth held 27% so any exit there would need to be carefully managed

[mfhmfh] 21/4/2022 19:52

I wonder if the recent directors who have left the board are selling out?

[gleach23] 21/4/2022 19:08

ST's write up from results day for the record. Like a few others, it seems, he is taking a cautious view 'until the board replacements are made and risks to trading disruption are reduced'.


Seeking value opportunities
Two lowly rated small-cap companies offer decent dividends, and re-rating potential
April 4, 2022
By Simon Thompson


2021 adjusted pre-tax profit up 25 per cent to £9.1mn, ahead of £8.75mn analysts’ forecast
Trading in January and February 2022 ahead of forecasts and March 2022 in line
Investment in advanced supplier payments and new freight forwarding system impact working capital position
Braintree-based international freight management services group Xpediator (XPD: 45p) beat analysts' profit estimates for 2021, and the positive momentum has continued into the first quarter of 2022 in spite of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Operating from offices in the UK and central and eastern European (CEE) countries, Xpediator offers freight forwarding, logistics and warehousing, and transport services to more than 14,000 clients. Its CEE exposure is a key structural driver, hence why last year's operating profit in freight forwarding surged 42 per cent, accounting for 70 per cent of group profit pre-central overheads, with operations in both Bulgaria and Lithuania outperforming. In addition, franchised pallet freight network Pall-Ex Romania increased average monthly pallet volumes by 18 per cent.

However, the directors are mindful that the geopolitical situation could disrupt the Lithuanian operations, which account for 30 per cent of group revenue of £297mn. Cost pressures need to be managed, too, albeit Xpediator is relatively protected as higher transport costs are borne by external hauliers and customers. That said, with driver shortages inherent in the industry, more working capital has been tied up in advanced payments to suppliers to secure hauliers. This factor and investment in a new freight forwarding system explain why net debt of £4.8mn declined from net cash of £6.8mn at the start of 2021. However, working capital build is forecast to unwind, so Zeus Capital forecasts year-end net cash of £2mn (pre-IFRS16 lease obligations) based on a flat pre-tax profit performance.

Although the directors have taken a cautious view on the 2021 annual payout (down from 1.5p to 1.1p) due to the ongoing geopolitical risks, they will look to pay a special dividend to make good the shortfall if the working capital impact remains small. The recent departure of founder and deputy chairman, Stephen Blyth, a non-executive director, and November’s exit of former chief executive Rob Ross mean that management needs to be rebuilt, too. Recruitment of a new chief executive is well advanced.

A 2022 forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of 11 and prospective dividend yield of 2.6 per cent offer scope for a re-rating – Panmure Gordon and Zeus have targets of 75p and 85p, respectively – but I am taking a cautious stance until the board replacements are made and risks to trading disruption are reduced. So, having initiated coverage at 45p ('Profit from a Brexit winner’, 19 February 2021), I am downgrading my previous buy call (‘On the hunt for value’, 31 January 2022) to hold.

[svend2] 06/4/2022 09:00

The bottom line share price has suffered due to the exceptional charge of £ 2.6 m resulting from the delay moving into their prime warehouse in Southampton. The adjusted EPS was 3.68 (compared with 3.84 in 2020) adding in the TAX charge mentioned by gleach23 earlier plus the Dividend got a (temporarily) haircut to 1.1 (1.5 in 2020) with the potential for a special Dividend in the 2nd half of the year.

[carcosa] 06/4/2022 08:04

Basic EPS excludes non-controlling interests as it is recorded in the shareholders equity section of the parent's balance sheet.

[scbscb] 05/4/2022 12:44

Looks like the businesses where there are minority shareholders did well in 2021 and therefore more profits were shared with these minority shareholders. in most cases the minority interest is 20%. These numbers imply that the core business i.e. 100% did not earn any profit and all the profits were from the subsidiaries which are not wholly owned.

[big7ime] 05/4/2022 12:31

Appreciate your reply carcosa but In that case why doesn’t the basic eps include it?

[carcosa] 05/4/2022 03:43

It's just the same as minority interest; probably arising from various purchases of subsidiaries with less than 50% shareholding. It has no meaningful impact for XPD shareholders.

[big7ime] 05/4/2022 03:05

Can’t anyone explain the non controlling interests and why the shareholders don’t get the same proportion of profit. The co needs to sort that out

[mfhmfh] 04/4/2022 16:55

Zeus price target: 85p

Panmure Gordon price target: 75p

[solarno lopez] 04/4/2022 13:44

Thank you km18

[km18] 04/4/2022 13:31

Xpediator Plc posted FY21 numbers this morning. The Group generated substantial organic growth with Group revenue up 34% to a record £296.6m. Adjusted profit before tax was up 25% to £9.1m, adjusted EPS down a touch to 3.68p. Total dividend for the year was 1.1p, down from 1.5p in FY20. Trading so far in the first two months of the year has been ahead of expectations, March was in-line despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Management expressed cautious optimism on the short term outlook with medium to long term aspirations still on track. So the business is still moving forward, like many businesses management are having to contend with inflationary pressures. Valuation is average, forward PE ratio of 11.1 is mid-range for the Freight & Logistics Services sector, PS ratio at 0.3 is top quartile. Balance sheet is in decent shape, but the share price is in an 8-month correction and still falling following today’s EPS growth contraction. Not a bad growing business, but one to monitor for the time being....

....from WealthOracleAM

[gleach23] 04/4/2022 13:21

I was wondering same big7ime. A good chunk of it relates to income tax, with the absence of the tax credit they enjoyed last year.

PBT 4,287 vs 3,934 in 2020
Tax (2,410) vs (874)
PAT 1,877 vs 3,060

PAT Split -
Owners of the parent 417 vs 2,031
Non-controlling interests 1,460 vs 1,029

Can anyone explain the profit split between 'Owners of the parent' and 'Non-controlling interests', as the Basic EPS drop relates to the 'Owners of the parent' numbers?

[svend2] 04/4/2022 12:51

Thanks petewy. Lithuania was particularly hard hit as a result of the war however according to an interview with Wim this morning the silver lining was that they have made strong inroads into Polen ahead of schedule due to the increased freight demand. 😀

[big7ime] 04/4/2022 12:34

Anyone able to explain the 80% fall in eps?

[petewy] 04/4/2022 11:17

Thanks Sven. The fear of the war is to blame.

[lewaus97] 04/4/2022 10:12

Surely this is just being manipulated to drop? I read the RNS today and couldnt find anything bad to warrant the drop... anyone got any idea?

[svend2] 04/4/2022 10:06

Solarno the dividend was reduced however the potential for a special dividend was announced in lew of the decrease compared to last year's payment.

[solarno lopez] 04/4/2022 08:07

You can only smile

[babbler] 04/4/2022 07:54

so of course it drops

[solarno lopez] 04/4/2022 07:06

And the results are better than expected with a very good forward outlook and increasing dividend