Xpediator Share Discussion Threads

[solarno lopez] 01/4/2022 07:21

Results on Monday so last day for buying ahead of the results

[gleach23] 31/3/2022 14:56

I'll second that solarno ;)

[solarno lopez] 31/3/2022 14:50

Thanks Gleach and good luck to us

[gleach23] 31/3/2022 14:46

OK I thought so. I didn't want to buy more - I was just pleased to see such a shortage available to buy. I'm looking to close out a spread bet today, hence the keenness to see some upwards movement, given the apparent short supply.

[solarno lopez] 31/3/2022 14:35

No that you could not buy more

[gleach23] 31/3/2022 13:09

Sorry to hear what solarno? I have my shares - I just want them to go up :)

[solarno lopez] 31/3/2022 13:07

Sorry to hear that gleach

[gleach23] 31/3/2022 11:32

With share price @ 50-52, have only been able to buy 15 shares online all morning. Can sell at least 20k well inside quoted Bid @ 50.72. About time they let it go!

[solarno lopez] 31/3/2022 11:13

That's my point VAT as the share price rises painfully slowly but it is upwards !

[vatacarma] 30/3/2022 07:38

expecting to deliver adjusted profit before tax well in excess of GBP8.5 million (2020: GBP7.2 million).

In which case the share price is on the low side !

[solarno lopez] 29/3/2022 15:14

Double post

[solarno lopez] 29/3/2022 15:14

Steady rise ahead of cracking results

[petewy] 26/3/2022 12:12

tHANKS Gleach

[gleach23] 26/3/2022 11:19

Worth noting that founder & deputy chairman Stephen Blyth resigned as CEO in Jun 2020 citing health reasons so this resignation is perhaps a natural extension of that process, particularly given the current dynamic of the business.

Also worth noting his large holding through Cogel Investments Limited which appears to be around 27%, last RNS'd around the same time as his resignation as CEO when he picked up an additional 1m shares. Yesterday's RNS states that Cogel has the right to appoint a new NED so that gives SB some continuity.

Whilst we are left to assume the reason for SB stepping down, I thought they could have provided more of an explanation, not least re Mark Whiteling.

Will be looking for another trading opportunity if it dips early next week on this news.

Finals have been coming out earlier in recent years - 15/05/18, 29/04/19, 20/04/20, 12/04/21 so could be pretty soon as long as the board changes don't cause delay.

[gleach23] 25/3/2022 18:07

Crikey. Talk about revolving door. Just ahead of the Final results due in April too.

[svend2] 14/3/2022 14:25

Agree maybe ST projections shall come through eventually, all the best GLA

[cf456] 14/3/2022 13:12

Nothing fundamentally changed with the company since the ST article which rated XPD a buy at 56p.

A chance to buy here on the cheap at just 47p. And by the looks of it, the bargain hunters are out in force today.

[svend2] 04/2/2022 21:06

gleach23 Thanks for sharing ST update very encouraging indeed. GLA

[zico01] 04/2/2022 14:12

consolidating above 60p

[gleach23] 04/2/2022 09:49

It's been a few days since this article has been in the public domain so this week's ST write-up for the record -

"On the hunt for value
The spike in share price volatility has been a feature of financial markets since the start of this year, and no more so that in my small-cap hunting ground. However, investors have been indiscriminately selling off shares even when the fundamental case for investing is sound, and valuations are attractive.

A good example is Braintree-based international freight management services group Xpediator (XPD: 56p). Having initiated coverage at 45p (Alpha Report: 'Profit from a Brexit winner’, 19 February 2021), and seen the share price almost hit my upgraded 85p target last summer, I feel that the subsequent de-rating represents a repeat buying opportunity.

A modest 2022 enterprise valuation of 5.6 times cash profit (28 per cent discount to peers), price/earnings (PE) ratio of 12.5 (14.5 for peers) and 3 per cent prospective dividend yield (2.7 per cent) shout value. Moreover, the board has just announced that it will comfortably exceed its 2021 profit guidance, having already raised pre-tax profit guidance by more than 10 per cent to £8.5mn last summer. Zeus Capital now expects annual profit of £8.75mn on a third higher revenue of £298mn. On this basis, expect 14 per cent higher EPS of 4.45p and a 11 per cent hike in the payout to 1.7p a share.



Xpediator’s sound fundamentals

- 2022 free cash flow of £10mn to wipe out net debt and provide additional funds for acquisitions
- Freight forwarding volumes benefiting from strong performance from Balkan countries
- Romanian palletised freight distribution network boosts warehousing profits

Operating from 38 offices in the UK and nine central and eastern European (CEE) countries, Xpediator offers more than 14,000 clients integrated freight management within the supply chain logistics and fulfilment sector in three main areas: freight forwarding, logistics and warehousing, and transport services

Strong increases in freight forwarding revenues (around 80 per cent of group revenue and 60 per cent of operating profit) has been driven primarily by CEE markets, higher sea freight volumes and an uplift from UK customs clearance work post Brexit. Lithuania and Bulgaria were significant contributors.

Xpediator’s Pall-Ex (Romania) franchise, a fast-growing palletised freight distribution network offering 24-hour delivery, contributed to double-digit growth in both forecast revenue and operating profit from the group’s logistics and warehousing division (17 per cent of group revenue and 22 per cent of operating profit). It’s worth flagging up that the benefits of the integration and additional space from Xpediator’s newly constructed 200,000 sq ft facility at Southampton are expected to be realised in 2022.

Despite the reduction in road transportation due to the pandemic, increased freight movement and expansion into the Balkans has helped drive a recovery in Xpediator’s Affinity brand. This business provides bundled fuel and toll cards and transport services (ferry bookings, insurances and VAT refunds) to 2,000 Eastern European hauliers and 14,500 lorries.

True, advanced payments to secure key supplier performance and costs associated with a new freight forwarding operating system in the UK resulted in closing net debt of £4.9mn (pre-IFRS16 lease liabilities), or three times the level at the half-year results. However, working capital should ease through this year, so much so that Zeus expect annual free cash flow of £10mn and closing net cash of £1.8mn by the year-end.

Reassuringly, a focus of interim chief executive Wim Pauwels is to maximise organic growth potential. He replaced former incumbent Rob Ross last autumn and has been on Xpediator’s board since November 2019, so he knows the business well. Pauwels has the requisite industry experience, having previously been chief regional officer for Yusen Logistics Europe (annual turnover of €1bn). The directors highlight “several acquisition targets” which would materially increase the activity and capability of the group, too. Buy."

[mfhmfh] 31/1/2022 21:10

ST says for 2021 Zeus have revenue of £298m with annual profit of £8.75m.

Today's update states 'revenues in excess of £300 million'.

Surely profit will beat £8.75m?

[gleach23] 31/1/2022 19:02

Thanks for flagging the ST report techno20. Interesting on the cash front that he mentions Zeus expect annual free cash flow this year of £10m and a forecast closing cash balance of £1.8m.

[techno20] 31/1/2022 18:25

Great update and the market clearly liked it. Removed the uncertainty regarding Rob Ross’s departure. Zeus looking for 85p and Simon Thompson @ IC just issued a buy recommendation. Hoping we’ll be returning to previous highs pretty fast.

[molatovkid] 31/1/2022 09:33

Probably need to keep an eye on the receivables....

'Advanced payments to secure key supplier performance and additional cost associated with a new freight forwarding operating system in the UK means the Company expects to report a net debt position GBP4.9 million, as at 31 December 2021. Alongside the new operating system and implementing new processes, receivables have increased which will unwind in 2022 as these processes are embedded.'

[gleach23] 31/1/2022 09:28

Morning svend2 and all

Yes it seems a strong update from an operational point of view but the net debt position is a surprise @ £4.9m from net cash of £6.8m in a year!

Looking at the September Interims they said PBT would be in excess of £8.5m and now it's 'well in excess' but on the net debt they said the following -

"This item is receiving significant focus, has already improved and is expected to be fully unwound by the year end"

It's a pity they don't quantify what the receivables are but it sounds like the new operating system has been problematic.

Given they're talking up acquisitions now then perhaps a large dilution may be on the cards?