Xpediator Share Discussion Threads

[davebowler] 28/6/2021 11:04

Cenkos;
Trading ahead of expectations Xpediator has announced a positive trading update for the year to date, with strong demand across all three divisions. Consequently, Xpediator expects to trade ahead of market expectations for FY21E. We update our FY21E forecasts to align with guidance (Adj PBT upgraded by 10% to £8.5m), and reaffirm our Buy rating.  Trading activity. Xpediator is benefiting from a steady recovery in those operations that were initially impacted by Covid-19, including the fashion logistics business (which is being repositioned to focus on the luxury end of the fashion market, and now has a strong sales pipeline), as well as Affinity Transport Services. Freight Forwarding continues to perform well, as does the Warehousing & Logistics business, which is seeing strong demand (particularly the Pall-Ex business in Romania, which recorded record shipments in Q1).  Brexit. Xpediator has been a beneficiary of Brexit, with the additional paperwork associated with new custom control processes creating extra billable work for the company, which has more than offset lower cross channel freight forwarding volumes.  New facility. Xpediator recently completed its purpose-built, 200,000 square foot facility at Southampton’s Container Port, which is expected to offer greater efficiency and improved margins versus the facilities it replaces.  Integration. Management’s strategy to rebrand and integrate the group’s various businesses is progressing well, with UK activities now largely operating under the Delamode International Logistics, whilst significant progress has been made to move individual divisions onto single IT and single finance platforms.  Forecasts. We upgrade our FY21E forecasts to reflect revised guidance, with revenue increased by 5% to £247.5m, Adj PBT by 10% to £8.5m, Adj Diluted EPS by 10% to 4.4p. We also increase our dividend forecast to 1.7p (previously 1.4p).  Valuation & rating. Given the group’s strong and improving outlook, we believe the company remains attractively valued on an FY21E Adj P/E of 16.4x (a c10% discount to the European logistics peer group), and as such, reaffirm our Buy rating.

[gleach23] 28/6/2021 11:03

Yes I think so. Only getting a quote for 550 shares to buy @ 77-78 so would expect an imminent move higher.

As zico mentioned, great to get an unscheduled positive TU.

[zico01] 28/6/2021 10:53

mfhmfh ... share price reached 79p on Friday before profit taking.It will go past 80p at some point !

[mfhmfh] 28/6/2021 10:33

new recent highs now

[davebowler] 25/6/2021 08:19

Zeus;
Earnings guidance upgraded



Trading has continued to be strong through H1. In our AGM trading update research note on 8 June we reported that all three divisions – Freight Forwarding, Warehousing & Logistics and Transport Solutions – were back on a growth path, and risks to guidance were on the upside. In an ad-hoc update issued today, management has confirmed healthy trading and upgraded guidance for 2021e. We understand that Freight Forwarding and Warehousing & Logistics divisions are continuing to trade well and benefiting from higher operational gearing and recently implemented cost efficiencies. We lift our revenue estimate by 4.2% to £247.5m. Adjusted PBT rises by 10.6% to £8.51m, in-line with revised guidance from XPD for adjusted PBT “in excess” of £8.5m. EPS is increased by 11.2% to 4.40p, and we assume the dividend pay-out ratio will remain at c.40%, lifting the total to 1.73p (+4.5%). XPD should deliver an impressive c.18% uplift in profit this year, combined with margin expansion; and mostly organically driven.

The stock has performed strongly but is still trading at a discount to the wider Pan-European logistics sector. XPD is trading on a 2021e PE of 16.4x versus the wider group on 18.6x (a c.12% discount), and EV/EBITDA of 7.2x versus 9.4x (c.23%), with a dividend yield of 2.4% versus 1.6%. With increased forecasts and an improved outlook, we lift our DCF-based valuation to 85p from 70p (+21.4%), indicating 18% upside to the current price.

Earnings guidance upgraded – In an AGM statement earlier this month, management said that trading in Freight Forwarding had been strong, particularly in the Baltic region. Other divisions had also started to catch-up. Transport Solutions (branded Affinity) was generating healthy like-for-like sales growth from its innovative fuel cards business. The Pall-Ex franchised freight pallet network in Romania reported record shipments in Q1. At the time, we stated that risks to full year estimates were on the upside. We noted that operating margins were likely to continue to expand due to central cost savings, investment in new capacity particularly in Romania/Pall-Ex and the retiring of underperforming contracts, notably in UK warehousing. Management has now stated that “results received to date for June 2021 have continued the strong trading trends since early 2021”. Further, the Board now “believes the business is well placed to deliver full year adjusted profit before tax in excess of £8.5 million”.

Good progress developing the platform – XPD has spent the past 18 months simplifying and strengthening its platform and positioning the business for higher growth. In the UK, the business is now largely operating under the Delamode International Logistics brand. Importantly, individual divisions are now unifying all their operating companies under single IT and single finance platforms. XPD has just brought online a new purpose-built 200,000 square foot facility at Southampton’s Container Port, replacing older and sub-optimal space. Generally, European freight and forwarding markets remain fragmented. XPD has a strong net cash position, and a pipeline of potential acquisitions. The Group should grow more quickly than its UK and European peers given its market exposures.

[mfhmfh] 25/6/2021 07:30

also more cash for future acquisitions hopefully.

[undervaluedassets] 25/6/2021 07:05

All very pleasing.

Never mind this year, that £8.5 million profit number beats 2022 expectations according to my Sharescope.

Much room to grow and prosper here. logistics is one of the sectors to be in at the moment.

[zico01] 25/6/2021 06:29

Early T U is always a good sign :

full year adjusted profit before tax in excess of GBP8.5 million ... well ahead of expectations !!!

[tole] 25/6/2021 06:25

Big beatresults received to date for June 2021 have continued the strong trading trends since early 2021, and the Board now believes the business is well placed to deliver full year adjusted profit before tax in excess of GBP8.5 million.

[svend2] 22/6/2021 14:13

gleach23 - Thanks

[gleach23] 21/6/2021 19:05

I could earlier but it tends to be hit n miss which is strange. Trying the link again just now I couldn't but a google search result then allowed me back in. As it seems generally available (albeit intermittently) and is a couple of trading days old, here it is -


Braintree-based international freight management services group Xpediator (XPD:65p) has released a bullish trading update to shareholders at its annual meeting.

Operating from 38 offices in the UK and nine central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, Xpediator offers more than 14,000 clients integrated freight management within the supply chain logistics and fulfilment sector in three main areas: freight forwarding, logistics and warehousing, and transport services. Xpediator’s key markets – Baltic states and CEE account for 63 per cent of revenue – offer superior growth prospects compared with the rest of Europe, thus underpinning demand for its services.

For example, European freight forwarding and logistics continue to perform strongly alongside Xpediator’s Affinity Transport Services business which provides bundled fuel and toll cards, financial and support services for hauliers in Southern Europe. The operations are all delivering like-for-like sales increases, particularly against those months in 2020 which were impacted by Covid-19. Moreover, the group’s Pall-Ex (Romania) franchise, a fast-growing palletised freight distribution network offering 24-hour delivery across the country, has handled a record number of pallets during the first quarter of 2021. Average monthly pallet volumes increased 13 per cent to 68,000 in 2020, and hit a record 87,000 in March, an indication of the momentum in that business.

As I noted when I initiated coverage at 45p (Alpha Report: Profit from a Brexit winner’, 19 February 2021), Xpediator is a Brexit winner. While cross channel freight forwarding volumes have been lower, reflecting the decisions by some clients to find alternative sourcing arrangements than the UK, the additional paperwork associated with the new custom control processes has led to additional revenue and the net result has been positive for the group. Also, as UK agrees more trade deals with non-EU countries, then demand for freight volumes at key ports handling non-EU trade, Felixstowe and Southampton being two major ones, are set to increase.

Xpediator’s management is ahead of the game, having just completed a new purpose-built 200,000 square foot facility at Southampton's Container Port. The new space will not only increase capacity, but it is expected to be more efficient and deliver £0.25m to £0.5m of annual cost savings.

When I interviewed chief executive Robert Ross at the annual results (‘Three under the radar recovery plays’, 12 April 2021), he was confident of achieving house broker Cenkos Securities’ 2021 pre-tax profit forecast of £7.7m and earnings per share of 4.8p, up from £7.2m and 4.6p, respectively, in 2020. It looked an easy beat to me given that £0.5m of operational savings will benefit the 2021 result, and Xpediator has removed a further £0.35m of operating losses following the disposal of its business-to-consumer logistics service EshopWedrop at the tail-end of 2020. The directors repeated their upbeat guidance at this month's annual meeting, noting that the “business is well placed to exceed market forecasts for 2021”.

Trading on a cash-adjusted forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of 12.5 after adjusting for net cash of £6.8m (4.8p a share), and offering a 2.2 per cent dividend yield, the rating is modest for a company with the earnings risk heavily skewed to the upside. In fact, I would not be surprised at all to see Xpediator outperform analysts’ pre-tax estimates by 10 per cent, implying 18 per cent year-on-year growth. I am upgrading my target price from 70p to 85p. Buy.

[svend2] 21/6/2021 18:20

gleach23 - are you able to read the full article past the subscription request?

[gleach23] 21/6/2021 15:32

svend2 - nor am I a subscriber but I can read it

[svend2] 21/6/2021 14:33

gleach23 - whats the main takeaway from the ST update?

[svend2] 21/6/2021 14:00

gleach23 thanks I am not a subscriber

[gleach23] 21/6/2021 13:37

This link currently works for me

[svend2] 21/6/2021 13:31

Zico01 - The XPD freight train is picking some fair speed Is (Sphere25) willing to share The recent IC link?

[zico01] 18/6/2021 15:24

Looking to finish a new high for the year !

[gleach23] 18/6/2021 15:04

Meanwhile...looks like it's attempting a next leg up which hopefully is going to take out the recent high

[rbewes] 15/6/2021 18:59

I know ST, he drinks G&T, likes to read the FT, he's no QT. Looks like he was run over by a GT or a TT. I have never read his CV but I know he comes from GB, he's OTT OCD and LGB and a member of the ANC.

His dad was a GI. He considers himself a PI of under valued shares. He likes to trade on IG, you will find him in the IC. He goes to AGM's talks to FD's about GP's and PE's he'll give you a tip on a PLC which you can buy on the LSE with a DD.

He used to work for the BBC, GLC, QVC, then he sold electric for SSE, mobiles for BT EE and he once found oil for BP. He wants to be on TV but he's not even on this BB. His wife is the size of a HGV looks like Mr T, he lives by the river D in a TP with no WC, though there is LPG. His hobbies are his CB most of his conversation is PG, he also listens to JZ and RNB on an MP3 whilst doing PE, trying to lower his BP he'll end up in A&E cos he's not very fit.


If you're looking for him:-

in the AM he's in his BM wearing his DM's going to see his GP about his VD.

in the PM he's usually wearing PJ's drinking OJ on his PC watching a 3way stroking his CK.

He's had some bother lately with a QC after being arrested by a PC from the CID in TSB for stealing CD's from HMV.

You can leave a message with his PA but I think he knows FA, that's ST.


PTO.

[zico01] 15/6/2021 08:15

A lot of interest generated this morning by ST update !

[toptomcat] 14/6/2021 16:29

I like this company a lot and so does ST. Upgraded his target price to 85p this evening.

[gleach23] 10/6/2021 12:01

Ah ok I see what you mean. One would normally expect them to advise the payment date.

A short note to the FD would be in order then if you are keen to know?

[carcosa] 10/6/2021 09:35

gleach23. No I did not miss it. That RNS does not provide the pay date and neither does the RNS dated 12 April 2021.

However, I have subsequently found the date elsewhere.