Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[ltcm1] 19/5/2018 16:36

"Global economic fundamentals are now evolving in a direction that the market is surprised by and the crowded consensus is being called into question more and more. I am increasingly confident that the market’s mood is changing in a way that is very supportive for our long-term investment strategy."

Neil Woodford April 1st 2018. Since then the market has hit a new high.

The 'fools on the hill' are those that continue to believe in Woody's special powers, seems there are plenty here.

[saltraider] 18/5/2018 22:38

I'd forgotten about netnut's alternative moderated thread. It's more than a little quiet, obviously ... but maybe that's more appropriate to stock in question.

I think I'm done with this thread, anyway.

[saltraider] 18/5/2018 22:21

Well it only requires half a brain to see that it has become high risk. Any fund that is aiming to deliver a significant part of its return based on the eventual performance of early stage pharma companies is clearly risky ... although being diversified over a large number of individual investments may take the edge off that risk a little.

I suspect WPCT's blend of holdings has shifted over time with less volatile holdings having been sold down. I'm happy with it the way that it is and do not see the performance of Woodford's open-ended funds as having any bearing on my investment in it.

[saltraider] 18/5/2018 22:12

Which just makes topvest's post doubly irritating. Ancient and irrelevant ... much like Winnifroth himself.

[daffyjones] 18/5/2018 22:12

Saltraider - there's already another WPCT-only thread which has been running for months:

Nobody goes on it because it is boring.

Plus it is totally relevant to include discussion of WEIF's woes if it reveals fundamental flaws in the fund manager's approach and knowledge base. WEIF and WPCT have both underperformed in lockstep despite a rising stock market.

Lastly, you are completely wrong to say WPCT was positioned as a high risk high reward investment.

WPCT was launched with, and still has, a risk rating of just 3/7 in its KIID. This is a lower rating than WEIF (6/7), WIFF (5/7) and indeed a lower risk rating than many bond-only investments.
WPCT was explicitly pitched as a 'slow fund' in which the only real risk was that things might not grow as quickly as you'd like. Nobody would have gone into this anticipating a 25% loss of their original investment after three years.

"We have classified this product as class 3 out of 7, which is a medium-low risk class. This rates the potential losses from future performance at a medium to low level"

[daffyjones] 18/5/2018 22:02

Jupiter sold their entire £300m stake in Woodford's funds back in September last year. It was widely reported at the time. It's just hit the headlines again now as one of Jupiter's managers Amanda Sillar did an interview saying the reason for the sale was Woodford's over exposure to small and unquoted stocks.

[saltraider] 18/5/2018 21:59

It would have been far better if this thread had remained restricted to discussion of WPCT as was the original intention. It just confuses things completely having different funds aimed at different types of holder with different expected risk tolerances all mangled up in the same discussion ... and it ends up being all about Woodford instead of about one particular investment opportunity.

Jupiter Merlin pulled out of an INCOME fund because they felt that the mix of investments it had made was collectively too risky for the usual investor in this type of fund. I can get that.

But it has no bearing whatsoever on WPCT which is positioned as a high risk, potentially very high reward, investment for a category of investor that is prepared to be patient and hold long-term despite the ups and (mainly, so far) downs.

Bringing Jupiter Merlin and Woodford Equity Income into the discussion totally muddies the waters.

Anyone else feel, like me, that it is time to open up a new, strictly WPCT-only, thread???

[topvest] 18/5/2018 18:44

See the Jupiter Merlin funds have fully exited their £300m Equity Income Fund stake in Woodford. The exodus continues.

[chucko1] 18/5/2018 18:41

Analysis is being used as a general class and not an indefinite plural noun.

And I know my 3rd declension feminine endings as Latin was one of the very few O levels I got. As in navis, naves.

Don’t know much else. I, like you, received such a terrible education somewhere in Oxfordshire. (that’s not on a hill!)

[1tcm1] 18/5/2018 17:46

chuckol, I'm getting really annoyed to read that last post again. You are trying, very badly, to copy MY style. It doesn't fool anybody to make deliberate mistakes. Although you really don't know probably that the plural of analysis is analyses.

"so it’s worth a punt irrespective of various conflicting analysis."

[chinahere] 18/5/2018 17:32

How much is the debt of this compared with the NAV ?

[1tcm1] 18/5/2018 17:01

chuckol, I'm getting really annoyed to read that last post again. Irony doesn't work here, OK?

[chucko1] 18/5/2018 15:22

Good luck, Andy! (in the non-ironic sense). I have a very small amount and treat it as an option (group of small options, I suppose). I cannot even pretend to analyse his holdings, and he may simply not be up to it in this space. But he has been successful for 30 years in the other space, so it’s worth a punt irrespective of various conflicting analysis.

[andyj] 18/5/2018 14:25

A lot of bad news written in and a nice tight spread.Atolus Therapeutics IPO due soon. Happy to take the risk at this price, besides the growth section of my portfolio is a bit cash rich. Bought in at 74.70.

[wantage] 18/5/2018 13:04

Winnifroth - Doncha luv him, Doncha hate him..
Woody - Doncha hate him,doncha luv him.

So Irrelevant.

[stewart64] 18/5/2018 10:40

Well I can't get tempted to trade it with its wing and a prayer non yielding pharma heavy assets. And even the non pharmas make no sense to me like Purple Bricks.

Tbf I don't understand GSK either, but hitched a ride from 12.79 anyway and its my best recent trade. Sometimes there is money to make in what you hate.

[chucko1] 18/5/2018 09:39

S64, there is much in what you say. However, it might be different this time! Why? Because I sense there is far more nervousness than there has been in the past about how the (many) unlisted assets have been valued. This can result in a chronic discount.

Were it just the case that Woody is going through a bad patch, then yes, that would readily turn around upon realisation of successes within the portfolio (though they have been very few so far). All that said, the discount is currently 9% - it got close to 14% when the share price was 72p. Taking bid offer into account and stamp duty, it’s not an easy trade for now, but there might be something in it with the high NAV volatility.

[stewart64] 17/5/2018 19:43

The estimated nav discount has been a reliable buy/ sell indicator these last 12 months even if it is an unreliable indicator of the real value.

Had a disciplined trader bought at + minus 10% nav discount and sold out each time it got within 2% of par there were three profitable trades even as the share price fell in the last 12 months.

Not going to try it, just saying. Not very often a system would work on a slumping share. Of course, it might not close to par again. But as it did three times last year there is a good chance.

[liquidkid] 15/5/2018 21:25

Fair play to Winifroth. Looks like Tom has sold his magnum opus: Trotters Used Cars: A Short Shark Redemption, to the fakenews gutter press ie tipsters.
No not The Daily Mash, The Sunday Times.
The similarities with the two pieces of sh!t (the articles, not John Collingridge) are striking. Both fethesis are that BCA Marketplace [BCA.L] has a high risk loan book. i.e. That retail used car buyers on PCP are idiots.

Hope he got enough shillings to cover the borrow on it.
This is relevant to WPCT has it is highly likely that Whalefeld's fat finger has been planted on the SELL & PANIC SELL buttons since early Monday morning.