Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[ltcm1] 04/5/2018 10:56

There seems to be Industrial Hot-Air swirling around this board this morning.

I dare say it's an attempt to hide the fact Woodford is re-inventing the laws of physics.

[the air marshall] 04/5/2018 10:27

It's amazing that the best humour, for the most part, comes from the good guys. I'm not making a moral judgement here, of course. It's the wrong place.

kpo/truth: sweet is the word.

[topvest] 04/5/2018 10:13

Thanks - the test on investment trust gearing is two-fold. I want the name of a trust that has gearing over 20% and illiquid loss making investments with no income. I think you may struggle to find one, but still waiting?

[trollwatch] 04/5/2018 09:59

kpo115. Brilliant! The best post ever on this miserable thread.


Encore!

[jonwig] 04/5/2018 09:53

Industrial Heat - most start-up companies have a website. I've tried but can't find one for this company. There's quite a bit about the lawsuits it's been involved in though.

Majority shareholder is Cherokee Investment Partners, whose own website is devoid of content:

[kpo115] 04/5/2018 09:49

I too think there is a similarity between Winniforth and Madoff in that both show signs of overconfidence, however in Madoff's case it is a lot more justified.

I simply don't think Winniforth has the intellectual horsepower to run funds. He is an excellent communicator and leader but Winniforth needs a Woodford type to be the brains behind the operation. Gut feeling, instinct and hunches won't cut it anymore.

Winniforth is out of his comfort zone, he's in unquoted, there is barely any cash being generated let alone profits, he's geared and he's shanked off many pounds on poor decisions.

How many red flags do you need with this guy???!!!

[ltcm1] 04/5/2018 08:45

I too think there is a similarity between Woodford and Musk in that both show signs of overconfidence, however in Musk's case it is a lot more justified.

I simply don't think Woodford has the intellectual horsepower to run funds. He is an excellent communicator and leader but Woodford needs a John Merriweather type to be the brains behind the operation. Gut feeling, instinct and hunches won't cut it anymore.

Woodford is out of his comfort zone, he's in unquoted, there is barely any cash being generated let alone profits, he's geared and he's shanked off many pounds on poor decisions.

How many red flags do you need with this guy???!!!

[jonwig] 04/5/2018 06:42

@ saltraider (post #2869). Thanks for posting that list. All other ITs on it have portfolios of overwhelmingly quoted, liquid stocks. And dividend-paying stocks as well, which can service the interest charges.

[daffyjones] 04/5/2018 02:56

Here's a genuine question for the bulls
2.43% of WPCT is invested in the 'cold fusion' company Industrial Heat. Do you see this as a good investment? Cold fusion is widely seen as sham science. .

[mochyn] 04/5/2018 00:38

jonwig is a slippery poster. He always sounds vaguely plausible but there's nearly always a fib in there somewhere. Saltraider has nailed him and topvest (if indeed they are separate persons) more than once.

This thread is a cess-pit.

[saltraider] 03/5/2018 23:42

@pediment There will be a bear market. It's coming at us ... soon. But 'soon' might be tomorrow, three months from now, or two or even three years from now.

If you do the right things and get your timing right you can be a wealthy man!

Good luck.

[saltraider] 03/5/2018 23:34

Here's some data on gearing for a range of closed-end investment funds (that's WPCT but nothing else to do with Woodford at the moment).



WPCT's gearing is clearly high but not outrageously high. There's quite a few mainstream investment trusts around 18% geared c.f. WPCT's 20%.

You have a case @jonwig but you are at risk of overstating it.

[pediment] 03/5/2018 22:35

Any comments on the ramifications of the imminent bear market on WPCT mochyn, nah, just your usual fatuous nonsense you dope. Xx

[mochyn] 03/5/2018 21:48

Who is this little chap pediment? He seems so desperate to attract the attention of the grown-up lads. He’s been prattling away for hours now but nobody’s taking a blind bit of notice of what he’s saying. I don’t think anybody’s got the slightest idea what he’s talking about.

[careful] 03/5/2018 21:44

Elon Musk deludes himself he can become production engineer.
No experience at all, it takes a lifetime to learn.
Reminds me of De Lorien except he was at least a Ford director.

Woodford is using his instinct, research and investment experience here.
Completely different from Musk.

[topvest] 03/5/2018 21:33

Do you know what reminded me of Woodford today?

Elon Musk who called an analyst a "boring bonehead" for asking an inconvenient question on how losing US$710M in a quarter was sustainable at Tesla?

The moment of truth awaits such individuals when the tide goes out, if not before!

[topvest] 03/5/2018 21:29

Don't get me wrong. Gearing of up to 10% in an investment trust is fine, provided its not introduced at the top of a cycle. Gearing needs to be introduced where 1. The underlying investments are liquid; and 2. The underlying investments generate cash. Neither of these two conditions apply for WPCT which is why I strongly believe that Woodford is being reckless beyond belief.

This is even more the case when he has breach his original investment policy limit of a maximum of 80% net assets in unquoted stocks.

A competition - please name any other LSE investment trust that has 20% gearing on a loss making illiquid portfolio? Prize - an apology from me!

[elmfield] 03/5/2018 20:10

Careful,
Careful should be as careful does!

[careful] 03/5/2018 20:03

even 20% gearing has a dramatic effect on net asset value when asset valuations fall.
It is only with gearing that asset valuations can become zero.
..but gearing works both ways.

[jonwig] 03/5/2018 19:42

@ topvest - the link I posted in #2840 is the only place I've seen this stated - as you say, virtually everybody says what you've quoted.

I can see how it makes sense, though: no matter how liquid your fund is, redemptions can force you to take a bridging overdraft to sell investments.

Going back to WPCT, though, his 20% gearing appears to be a structural feature now. The main well-known ITs have much lower levels (single-digit) and get dividend income to service it. His self-belief seems unbounded!

[topvest] 03/5/2018 19:29

Jonwig - interesting point on open ended funds. You might be right. Lost count of how many books I have read that say one advantage of closed end funds over open ended funds is that investment trusts can employ leverage, but open ended funds can’t. I wonder how many open ended funds are actually leveraged as the general view is that they are not?

[chinahere] 03/5/2018 17:38

Sorry misread above lol.