Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[elmfield] 27/3/2018 13:55

All very well slagging off those that don’t agree with your views.
However time will tell who is right, so far I have been.

[ltcm1] 27/3/2018 13:43

Well the facts are the other funds under management have declined by like 30% in size since launch and holdings are being sold.

A total blow up of the other funds and knock on widening of NAV discount at WPCT does not seem atall fanciful to me, should UK growth decline. However I accept a gamechanger event at WPCT would help to offset woes at the other funds.

Woodford loves to tell us how he has travelled the investment universe. But his universe does not it seems, extend beyond the white cliffs of Dover.

[trollwatch] 27/3/2018 11:58

TROLL-FIB ALERT. TROLL-FIB ALERT.

100% Fibs

[ltcm1] 27/3/2018 11:47

Look I am just saying that if Brexit gets tricky or UK growth goes to zero it is going to have a really bad effect on the other three funds, which are both massive and totally UK focused with few defensive holdings.

Were that to occur Woodford's army of PI investors will all head for the exit and he will have to start selling the less liquid stocks, many of which are also WPCT holdings, but held in much larger quantities. Which will push WPCT down too simply on the price action of heavy volume selling.

Long term that won't matter as the fund will recover when people see the value. But short term it could be pretty nasty for WPCT holders. And a buying opportunity for those not in.

I am not saying WPCT is bad atall. My stance is I feel there may be a better entry point.

However I do worry about WPCT on the basis I don't think the economic case Woodfood has put for the other funds is supported by the the evidence. But if you want to argue his case on that I would love to hear it.

[littleweed1] 27/3/2018 11:29

A cogent post kpo, but I fear you may be talking to a different level of investor here. I cannot imagine Elmfield, or Daffy or a few others understanding a single word of what you said, judging from their posts.

As for Winnifright, he is, it appears, trying to ape the big unscrupulous hedge funds. They not only make large bets on some share going down but they also follow up by actively attempting to manipulate the market to make sure it happens. Hence the plethora of trolls spouting roughly the same brand of rubbish.

[topvest] 26/3/2018 21:10

Purplebricks profit warning is a big concern for Woodford given the enormous listed weighting attributed to it. I really don't like Purplebricks as it just seems to be run by aggressive unethical types. It seems to have a passing resemblance to Utilitywise and we know how that has gone! For a so called value investor Mr Woodford seems to be quite attracted to "get rich quick" schemes.

[elmfield] 26/3/2018 19:03

Plenty with their heads in the sand,
and they say it will all be great in the long term,
Trouble is,
Will it survive a melt down, anyway 25% down already in relatively benign markets:
Wrong stock to hold in this high market as things get really nasty.
IMV.

[ltcm1] 26/3/2018 17:53

One thing we can all agree on - Woody's had a stinker today. Heavy falls at PURP and CPI do nothing for the confidence or the bank balance. Two of his highest conviction stocks have taken big punches. Hopefully Woody is strong enough to roll with them.

Doubtless many here will view the Purp placing as a means to accelerate the company growth story but I see it as a worrying development and a sign they are not expecting to get into profit for a long time. We shall see.

[kpo115] 26/3/2018 16:07

dafty,

I knew some idiot would try to make that argument. It's somehow to be expected on this thread or any other social medium for that matter.

Let's take some other Investment Trusts, at random, shall we? CTY, FEET, GCL, I could go on with hundreds more. They've all gone down heavily in the last months. Therefore should they all be discussed on this thread? In fact should ALL shares that have done that recently, maybe 1000+ or more be up for discussion here?

I deliberately stated "significant correlation" which means, amongst many other factors, contemporaneous movements, similar volume of change, reaction to similar external events, even reaction to identical holdings' movement etc, etc. I'm not going to continue because I'm certain I would be wasting my time.

I have to say that I see this as a wanton, wilful extension of the trolls' desire to make a confused, conflated case because they have no other case to make.

[ltcm1] 26/3/2018 15:42

Kpo I have never said myself there is price correlation between the funds, if others say that you need to take it up with them.

What I and others have drawn attention to is the danger of cross holdings and the negative impact it will have on WPCT should Woodford become a forced seller in his other far larger funds.

There are very few defensive stocks in the EI fund plus it is UK only. If we have a consumer led slowdown there will be a big hit to the other funds. Conversely should growth be ahead of his 2% UK growth target the funds could do very well.

My concern for WPCT is a forced selling domino effect from the other funds if we do have a slowdown. It has nothing to do with day to day price correlation.

[daffyjones] 26/3/2018 15:09

Kpo - "there is NO significant correlation to be seen between WPCT and the other Woodford funds."

Apart from the fact that they've all gone down??
Yes WPCT has fallen further than the two income funds; that's because WPCT has a higher concentration of dross. Yet they've all fallen over the past year and all far underperformed the market

[kpo115] 26/3/2018 14:32

"ltcm126 Mar '18 - 14:06 - 2373 of 2374
Kpo the funds aren't correlated tightly because etc" and then some confused explanation.

You've been forced to make the statement that none of your troll friends, particularly jonwig, wanted you to give. Even then you have not allowed yourself to say the full, whole truth: there is NO significant correlation to be seen between WPCT and the other Woodford funds.

P.S. The news on PURP, as I write, has had no deleterious effect on WPCT. So for the time being at least go easy on the unrestrained joy, LOL


Oh dear, the world is falling to bits on you trolls.

[daffyjones] 26/3/2018 14:32

PURP collapsing? Who could have seen that coming??!

[ltcm1] 26/3/2018 14:09

WPCT news - the Purplebricks holding has today been diluted 10% as Purp have issued more shares.

Purp down to 280.

[ltcm1] 26/3/2018 14:06

Kpo the funds aren't correlated tightly because there are a lot of big holdings in EI which are not in WPCT. But there is a lot of WPCT holdings in the other funds but in different weighting.

However it must be remembered the other funds in total are 10 - 15 times the size of WPCT. A 1% holding in EI is £70m lets not forget.

I know you are just winding me up kpo but you just have to check Woodford Investments holdings in the big holders list of each company and work it out from there.

[kpo115] 26/3/2018 12:49

I'm beginning to feel rather sorry for ltcm1. Everything he does seems so desperate. He so wants approval from the other trolls. He so wants to come over as a master investor. Instead he comes over as a bit of a mastur....

He recently wrote several posts in order to please the other trolls trying desperately to show that all the Woodford funds were basically the same. One simple question to him. If they are the same or have any real correlation, why, when last week WPCT had that massive (unpredicted) uplift, the other Woodford funds did not stir at all?

I don't expect to hear a true and honest answer from him or the other trolls.

Any more than The Air Marshall received an answer from the same parties to his rather awkward question.....

[trollwatch] 26/3/2018 12:25

TROLL-FIB ALERT. TROLL-FIB ALERT.

Earlier today ltcm proclaimed loudly:

"However Capita is now down to 148 and the chart looks horrible. What if they can't raise the £700m, or it costs too much to do so? The shares will get smashed and Woodford's reputation tarnished."

ltcm appears to know nothing about anything, especially when he is making another one of his many stupid predictions about WPCT. Everybody knows Capita has already had the issue underwritten. He never gets anything right. He ended up in Ulan Bator last week when he was trying to find Woodford HQ LOL.

I bet he would lie if you asked him the time of day! Utterly discredited.

[ltcm1] 26/3/2018 12:08

Yes I stand corrected on the £700m but the price might have to be lower than people are expecting. Sorry for the error but if the profits aren't there the outcome will be the same.

Woody was very bullish about Purplebricks in the recent update but today they deliver this nasty shock.

[tim 3] 26/3/2018 11:53

Thanks EI thought it was.

The embarrassing thing for Woodford with Capita is its not just the way its performed but the fact that he has always said he particularly likes it because it has good management,thats the same people that through their mismanagement of the company got them into this mess!

[hpcg] 26/3/2018 11:49

I'm flat again. Futures, especially QQQ are OK. I've gone long for a trade on PURP despite the profit warning as I think the Springer support might cause some shorts there to have second thoughts - and PURP has tended to find a bid when the US comes online.

[essentialinvestor] 26/3/2018 11:40

It's underwritten Tim is also my understanding. The post rights price of £1
that you have previously mentioned may be seen.

[tim 3] 26/3/2018 11:37

I think Capita already have the rights issue underwritten but its not a share I would own think there are plenty of hurdles ahead.

[essentialinvestor] 26/3/2018 11:30

Itcm, Serco looks better risk/reward to me, however the sector has been a huge
wealth destroyer of late. CPI significantly more UK focussed than SRP.

[ltcm1] 26/3/2018 11:26

Trouble at Purplebricks. £100m fundraising being reported, shares down.