Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[trollwatch] 26/3/2018 11:20

TROLL-FIB ALERT. TROLL-FIB ALERT.

"The whole Woodford story could potentially unravel in just a few months."

Another prediction from genius ltcm1,

[ltcm1] 26/3/2018 11:16

Woodford's explanation for the recent Capita investment is that although his original purchase was a mistake, it is now a good business and the risk to reward ratio is favourable. So far so good.

However Capita is now down to 148 and the chart looks horrible. What if they can't raise the £700m, or it costs too much to do so? The shares will get smashed and Woodford's reputation tarnished.

I admire his bottle but Serco has not recovered from similar woes. If Woody is badly wrong twice with Capita what are people to think???

The whole Woodford story could potentially unravel in just a few months.

[ttg100] 25/3/2018 11:12

The article in full

"Shares in the Woodford Patient Capital (WPCT) investment trust have surged after top holding Prothena (PRTA.O) announced a tie-up with biotech giant Celgene (CELG.O) in a deal that could be worth as much as $2.2 billion (£1.6 billion).
Shares in the trust jumped 7.4% to 78.2p after Prothena, which accounts for 9.8% of the portfolio, announced it would collaborate with Celgene to develop treatments for neurodegenerative diseases.

Shares in US-listed Prothena, also the seventh largest holding in Woodford's flagship Woodford Equity Income fund, surged 23% in aftermarket trading. Prothena is a 1.9% position in the Woodford Incoms Focus fund.
Prothena will receive a $100 million upfront payment from Celgene and a $50 million equity investment from the biotech group, as well as the rights to royalties on the sales of any products that result.
Total payments to the company as part of the tie-up, focused on three proteins, could amount to $2.2 billion.
For each of the three drugs in development, Celgene would have to pay $80 million if it exercised US rights, $55 million for global rights, and up to $562.5 million as the drugs hit regulatory and commercial milestones.
A spokesman for Woodford Investment Management said: 'The deal makes perfect sense for Prothena and allows its research and development engine to be funded by one of the leading US biotech companies.'
Shares in Prothena have been a drag on performance of both the Woodford Patient Capital trust and Woodford Equity Income fund, after the stock came under attack from short-sellers Kerrisdale Capital.
The shares suffered a further sell-off after a delay to a trial of its flagship drug, a potential therapy for AL Amyloidosis in November last year. Even with today's surge, the shares have lost nearly half their value over the last six months.
But Woodford has stuck by the stock, saying the market's reaction to the delay was misguided and that he was 'encouraged' by progress on the drug.
Woodford has been enduring one of the most challenging periods of his fund management career, with his flagship Woodford Equity Income fund languishing at the bottom of the UK Equity Income sector over one year, hurt by heavy share price falls of top holdings like Provident Financial (PFG) and Capita (CPI).
His Woodford Patient Capital trust has also struggled, and even with today's jump the shares remain well below their 100p price at flotation in April 2015.
The trust also received a boost yesterday from its second largest holding, unquoted Oxford Nanopore, which represents 9.5% of the portfolio.
The handheld DNA test maker's £100 million fundraising took its valuation to £1.5 billion, up from £1.25 billion at its last financing round in 2016.
Oxford Nanopore is also a 1.4% holding in the Woodford Equity Income fund, which has also benefited from the news through its top 10 holding in IP Group (IPO), which owns 18.3% of Oxford Nanopore. Shares in IP Group are up 10% over the last two days.
Another Woodford stock, Softcat (SCTS) is down 12% today, however, as the IT infrastructure company, whose shares had nearly doubled over the last 12 months, succumbed to profit-taking after half-year results. Softcat accounts for 2.2% of the Woodford Income Focus fund."

[trollwatch] 24/3/2018 14:56

TROLL-FIB ALERT. TROLL-FIB ALERT.


"ltcm124 Mar '18 - 03:27 - 2352 of 2359

TAM for the record I have never made a prediction about Woodford's funds."


Pants burning bright!

[tim 3] 24/3/2018 12:58

Hi Minerve Agree with all your points.He said he believes the current market conditions do not suit his investing style and he believes that things will turn, well if that's the case why is he selling so many of his holdings when many are at historically low valuations.

[minerve] 24/3/2018 11:40

tim3

Good morning.

Yes, indeed they have. And it doesn't stop at the top 10. Other activities which give me concern are quick reversals on investments when there hasn't been any significant developments to force a change in investment thesis. To name a few: National Grid, Vodafone, Aviva (not once, but twice). Of course this might be normal fund activity that we don't normally see because other funds are not transparent. Neil Woodford needs to communicate these reasons if they are valid and positive but if he doesn't communicate one assumes they haven't got a defined investment thesis and clear rationale when to buy a stock and when to sell. There communications have altered slightly so they don't explain stock movements to the extent they previously did - again no real explanation given.

Imperial Tobacco, his top holding, has to be a concern. We are 20 years on from the .com boom at the turn of the century and I believe investor sentiment is changing on this sector for good, it will not return and protect him like it did 20 years ago.

[the air marshall] 24/3/2018 11:36

ltcm. Thank you for your reply. Most of what you say is of no interest to me and most others on this thread because it concerns other funds and not WPCT. It's an old, dishonest, trick by you trolls, led by the rather discredited wiggy, to conflate them, but you guys have persuaded no sensible people

So you never make predictions about WPCT? Yet you end your magnum opus (or is it Magnum choc-ice?) with the portentous prediction: "Which will hit WPCT hard too" You are a model of inconsistency. LOL


I assume that the answer to my question from you is "NO I did not make any gain, paper or real, from a stonking big rise in a share which I have been pontificating about for months". That probably will be the other trolls' answer too.

Why do you bother to persist? It's the most useless troll campaign in history.

[tim 3] 24/3/2018 08:49

Minerve.

Never realised that all but 1 of his top 10 holdings (imperial Tobacco) has changed.

[ltcm1] 24/3/2018 04:25

The trouble is he has the wrong type of investor in the Equity Income funds. I mean the funds aren't even down yet redemptions have been substantial. He has created a herd mentality and if there is a proper downturn in the income funds it seems likely there will be a stampede, which could turn a drama into a crisis.

And should that happen WPCT investors will be the innocent casualties of Woodford creating an income stable that is both far too big and has too many cross holdings.

When you factor in the many vested interests who want to see Woodford fail it has all the ingredients for a perfect storm.

It's not hard to see how flatlining UK growth plus a modest UK stock correction could wipe Woodford's income funds out because his mom and pop investors will all run for the exits at the same time and he will become a forced seller, which is exactly what Goldman et al want.

Which will hit WPCT hard too.

[ltcm1] 24/3/2018 03:48

Well done on your purchase TAM but my interest is not individual investors but Woodford's performance plus his economic arguments for his investment decisions.

I do think the EI fund has all the ingredients for a spectacular meltdown but have never predicted it will happen because I don't believe it is possible to predict the stock market.

It's Mr Woodford who likes predictions and who has made a huge macro call on the UK market, one which is against Goldman Sachs and a lot of institutional investors it would seem. He might be proved right but for me the interesting question is what will happen to Woodford Investments should his prediction of improving UK fundamentals not come to pass. Should that happen it will be interesting to see how EI investors and Woodford himself react to the situation.

[ltcm1] 24/3/2018 03:27

TAM for the record I have never made a prediction about Woodford's funds. My reasons for posting are to argue there is a lot of downside risk with WPCT because of its connection to the Equity Income fund and the potential damage to cross holdings should the EI fund get into trouble.

If WPCT were a stand alone fund it would be a different story but the fact is many holdings are held in the EI fund in far larger amounts, sometimes in companies Woodford has a very large holding in, Prothena and Purp being prime examples.

A £300m 30% holding in Purp could be hard to sell if there is a market downturn.

Also averaging down to create very large holdings in PFG and AA does does not seem a good strategy in my opinion. But perhaps Woodford will be right on these stocks. However if he is wrong it clearly won't be good for WPCT if the EI fund gets distressed.

[the air marshall] 24/3/2018 00:17

As I indicated here at the time in very early February I bought a fair amount of WPCT at an average cost of 73p. At close today they were up 9.9%. I'm pretty sure I shall hang on for many more months in the patient hope of getting more: I make no predictions, of course. Nor shall I be perturbed if they drop below that in the meantime. (For full disclosure, I have a much smaller tranche bought much earlier averaging in the lower 80s (which I also declared): here's hoping for those too!)

All you trolls/prophets could easily have bought more cheaply than that last Monday, say. If you are so brilliant at this game, topvest (LOL, LOL),ltcm1,hpcok,elmfield etc. etc., and you spend so much time on the WPCT thread shouting the odds, how much were you up on WPCT last week?






What? What?



Can't hear You........

[ltcm1] 23/3/2018 11:48

The trouble is Walter Woodford is constantly fire fighting to save his operation, that is the problem.

If Capita lurches downwards in the coming month it is going to rattle even the Woodford diehards. I mean how many times can a market be wrong???!!!

Does anyone have the White Star Line chart to hand? I don't recall their other ships doing too well after the Titanic went down. And the Equity Income fund is hardly short of icebergs!!!

[ttg100] 23/3/2018 08:42

>> Minerve
Agree with your comments but WPCT very small part of portfolio (most of which is now cash) it's just that get peed off when I can research investments and in the vast majority make money why can't these guys who spend all day doing it with the best resources possible !!!!!
Am not a patient sort of person (mostly day trade - often minute trade !!)so thought would let someone else be patient for me

[minerve] 22/3/2018 22:17

We are in the foothills alright - Hamburger Hill's!

[ltcm1] 22/3/2018 22:11

Gentleman we may be in the foothills of a profoundly different market environment. One where I, Neil Woodford, have to shamelessly sell all my best holdings just to keep Woodford Investments Ltd afloat!!!

[elmfield] 22/3/2018 21:55

Topvest,
Agree, exactly, not the place to be stuck in when the market gets
nervous.

[minerve] 22/3/2018 21:54

I'm glad I'm not in because you end-up with an investment that doesn't look anything like what you originally bought into and the cash flows vs market environments create pressures for adverse investment management behaviour. I am sure he would have preferred to hold AZN as it is on the cusp of benefitting from its strong drugs pipeline. But the usual hindsight excuses will come out.

Just look at the original line-up! For a self-proclaimed long-term investor he hasn't held many for that long - don't forget this only launched 2014! You might expect some changes but the current fund is completely a different beast. A bit like marrying Felicity Kendal in The Good Life and ending-up with a bloated and volatile Mariah Carey.

[topvest] 22/3/2018 21:29

Yes, looks like it as AstraZeneca is no longer in the top-10. This is the problem. Because of his huge positions, he can only really sell in size a handful of companies. without really hitting the share prices badly. The question is what does he do with say another couple of billion of outflows in the net quarter, if that happened? Think markets are getting decidedly jumpy and we could be due a big correction anytime soon. As always the cue will come from the US. I would guess that the £7bn will be £5bn in the next 3/4 months as his portfolio won't do well in a meltdown.

[minerve] 22/3/2018 21:15

Which looks like they have been forced to sell down AZN or else realise losses.

And with our resident true statesman and intellect running the global show things are just starting to get interesting.

[topvest] 22/3/2018 21:07

Woodford Equity Income Fund down to AUM of £7.07bn. So they have lost over a billion since the start of the year...Ouch!