Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 26/7/2024 17:09

Foreign stock trade totalled a net positive purchases this week in the main VNI index. Is this because western markets were mostly down, perhaps (until this afternoons hard bounce)?

[aleman] 26/7/2024 10:46

Further signs of a sharp upturn in property markets?

[amt] 26/7/2024 06:24

At least its broken free from what happens to Wallstreet.
Tentative signs of the market bottoming out.

[aleman] 25/7/2024 09:51

CLIG's trading update suggests moderation of withdrawals from emerging markets?

Net investment outflows reduced significantly to $26 million in the second half of the financial year, from $294 million in the first six months ending December 2023. Net investment outflows totaled $320 million for the Group over the twelve-month financial year as clients reduced exposure to EM due to ongoing geopolitical volatility.

[aleman] 24/7/2024 11:01

There have been a few days of foreigners buying the VNI in the last couple of weeks and this week looks like the 5 days could add up to a net positive figure. Tide starting to turn, maybe? A modest rise today broke the 3-day losing streak (of profit-taking?).

[hpcg] 17/7/2024 18:52

How so?

Two of the six victims had loaned "tens of millions of Thai baht" to another of the deceased for investment purposes, authorities said. Ten million baht is worth nearly $280,000 (£215,000).

Even a cursory glance at the chart shows it has high short term volatility. Trying to read causes into that is a mugs game.

[steve73] 17/7/2024 16:43

Big news story in Thailand today is the apparent murder-suicide of a group of 6 Vietnamese investors in a Bangkok hotel. Seems they were "playing" the VN markets and got into serious debts.

BBC has some info...

Not sure if this could be causing some of the weakness we are seeing here..?

[aleman] 17/7/2024 14:01

HCMC has been the laggard region for property this year but looks to have accelerated a little recently:

[amt] 17/7/2024 13:43

None of you have given an explanation as to why the market is more or less moving sideways and foreigners are selling with high economic growth, low inflation, low interest rates, potential move to recategorisation of the market to emerging markets all in place.
On the surface what's not to like but best not to delve too deeply

[amt] 17/7/2024 13:11

Again I am perfectly aware of how well the marker did in the past. I had a huge investment until 6 months ago and have trimmed it back radically so only a small % of my portfolio.
The difference between us is that I was very optimistic until recent events.
The Putin relationship is just one example of what could be a power grab by those currently running the Country.
The political situation is changing. Ignore it if you wish but that's my take.
Dictators tend to stick to together.
I wouldn't trust Modi by the way but he is limited by governing a democracy.

[shaker45] 17/7/2024 11:33

Your analysis is flawed amt regarding Putin. He meets many other leaders. Recently modi. And when trump gets elected they will meet. If a single meeting with Putin is your investment criteria you will bypass many thriving economies. Meantime, regarding vietnam, you are out of step

[donald pond] 17/7/2024 11:32

Amt I am just making the point that your mindset may not be ideal for diversified investments. Vietnam is a high growth market but it is not without risks. If you are investing based on your view of Vietnams view of Putin then where's your edge?Anyone who has done their homework knows it is volatile and you have to accept that. In the 20 years since launch the fund has nearly 10 bagged, despite losing 75% post GFC. I'd say that the chart looks like it's bowling up and I'd not be surprised if we had a 50% gain in the next 12 months. But you have to zone out from the daily noise.

[amt] 17/7/2024 11:22

Donald why can't you debate without getting personal.
My view is Vietnam is a very high risk market. A year ago I didn't think that. A lot of mishaps and instability recently has made me reach this conclusion and this helps to explain the relatively poor performance of the market and continuous selling by foreign investors in recent times.

[donald pond] 17/7/2024 09:44

I know nothing about Amt but he popped up on the PSH thread, posted manically for about a month - "it's going up", "uh oh", "I can't handle this volatility" type stuff - then he left. If you want to invest in investment trusts you need to accept that there will always be a huge amount of noise arising from the underlying market. Vietnam isn't Switzerland. There will to corruption scandals, volatility, bank instability and long term growth. If you can't deal with that, go elsewhere

[shaker45] 17/7/2024 09:38

Your analysis is flawed amt regarding Putin. He meets many other leaders. Recently modi. And when trump gets elected they will meet. If a single meeting with Putin is your investment criteria you will bypass many thriving economies. Meantime, regarding vietnam, you are out of step

[aleman] 17/7/2024 09:36

amt - 20 Jun 2024 - 19:01:55 - 2146 of 2171

I can't see India rolling out the red carpet to Putin especially since Modi has lost significant power due to DEMOCRATIC elections. Its a far from perfect World. If we can't bring manufacturing back home then India is the least worse choice.

Modi gave Putin a Bear hug when they met in Moscow last week. I don't see how you can be okay with India if you have a problem with Vietnam dealing with Putin. India does significant trade with Russia while Vietnam does not as yet.





As you noted, it's a far from perfect world and India and Vietnam seem to be trying to promote trade with everyone. It used to be said the best ways to influence other countries was to trade with them. As I posted previously, Vietnam's trade with Russia was reported as negligible when I tried to quantify it whereas India imported nearly 2% of global oil output from Russia in the latest year for figures.

Vietnam has just ratified the UK's accession the new version of the Transpacific Partnership, trades significantly with Europe and the USA and is currently undergoing a massive investment boom from US and Western companies. Vietnam is on a forward P/E of 12 versus a more historically typical 14 and earnings are predicted to rise 20% this year and 15-20% next year. It's trade with the West is massively expanding. It's not clear if it is or will trade significantly with Russia any time in the near future. (I've read there have been deals to supply technical expertise for education, science and oil and gas exploration. I don't think it's on the same scale as the massive factories western companies are building?)

[kenmitch] 17/7/2024 09:23

That’s also incorrect amt.

There was a bear phase (ALL markets have bear phases) that ended in November 2022 and that fall was from the previous 2021 long term peak. Some of us who have followed events and Vietnam market for many years used that dip to top up our holdings in the likes of VOF and VNH. The main Vietnam index is still 12% below the all time high. It’s not “way off the previous peak.”

Instead of posting rubbish why don’t you do the obvious and LOOK at the Vietnam Index charts to see FACTS for yourself?

I posted the link for a Vietnam chart. Why not LOOK at it and see for yourself how well the Vietnam market has done?

[amt] 17/7/2024 08:27

Kenmitch you can select a convenient period to argue a point but I think any fair minded person would conclude that the market has been up and down now for several years and overall made no progress.
Uk market hasn't done much either to be fair.
Most markets are at or near all time highs, Vietnam is way off the previous peak.
Of course it has gone up enormously over the last 20 years but I was writing about the here and now and attempting to explain why from a valuation and growth point of view it looks very good value. However this is being overshadowed by political instability and this makes it a very high risk market in my humble opinion.

[kenmitch] 17/7/2024 08:19

The main Vietnam index is up over 16% so far this year, compared with 5% for FTSE100 and 8% for FTSE250.And their index has gone up 10 times in the last 20 years. That’s way better than the UK market.



You’re posting nonsense when saying that the Vietnam index is going nowhere! Sensible bear points are worth reading but nonsense isn’t.

[amt] 17/7/2024 08:01

Difficult to know what's going on in Vietnam but it seems really odd that Western companies would want to invest in such an unstable environment. I think the political instability, highlighted by the sickening building of relationships with Putin is why the stock market is going nowhere and foreign investors continue to sell.

[hpcg] 15/7/2024 18:20

Approximately 5% of shares bought back in the last year (percentage calculated from the share count a year ago). The vast majority, everything before the buy back gap in April, at decently lower prices; including the month thus far an average of £4.56. That is a useful pep to returns.

[aleman] 15/7/2024 12:20

Property market recovery seemingly continues - booms even?



Over 12,200 apartments were sold in Hanoi in the first six months of 2024, roughly the same number as in the whole of last year. Nearly 10,200 transactions took place in the second quarter alone ...

[aleman] 12/7/2024 07:41

Foreigners still selling large caps - but they have started buying midcaps/HNX.



Moreover, the regulation requiring foreign institutional investors to deposit 100% of funds before making stock purchases may be lifted in the third quarter of this year.