Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[31337 c0d3r] 26/3/2024 18:59

I think it's different rules for institutional traders.

[dpmcq] 26/3/2024 17:07

If the biggest shareholder reduced their exposure, surely as they sold and crossed each 1% (if they sold that many) then a RNS would need to be issued?

[31337 c0d3r] 26/3/2024 09:46

There should be a tender offer directly linked to the discount to NAV, then the company's second excuse would not apply since they have no problems calculating and publishing the NAV daily.

[aleman] 26/3/2024 09:38

It's interesting that the dividend being paid out is just under 2/3rds of the total being received from investments, the latter having risen from $32m to $36m since last year.

[dpmcq] 26/3/2024 09:36

I suspect the seller may be the largest share holder who voted in favour of resolution 14.

The board have laid out the reasons for not tendering -

With Resolution 14 – that the Company should cease to continue as currently constituted – the Company’s
second largest shareholder, representing approximately 23% of the votes cast at the AGM (11% of the total
issued share capital), voted in favour. I had met representatives of the shareholder prior to the AGM who
indicated that they wanted to see the Board introduce a performance conditional tender mechanism (“PCTM”).
I presented arguments why the Board believes that a PCTM would not be in the Company’s or the other
shareholders’ interests but the shareholder was not persuaded and voted against the Board’s
recommendation. In accordance with the AIC Code, the Board has reflected further and its views on a PCTM
are set out below.
The principle underlying a PCTM is that if the performance of an investment company falls below a set level
over a particular period, the Board will allow shareholders to tender a proportion of their shares at or close to
NAV. In the case of VOF (and, indeed, the vast majority of other investment companies) the shares are likely
to be trading at a wider discount than would be offered in the tender so, were this to happen, the tender would
likely be fully subscribed. The reasons that the Board does not think that a PCTM is appropriate for VOF can
be summarised as follows:
• The most relevant benchmark which is available in Vietnam is the VN Index. This is not representative
of all of the opportunities available for investment in Vietnam (for example 10 very large companies
make up 42% of the VN Index). Given the concentration of large companies, the index can show
volatility as a result of specific issues with one or more of its constituents.
• VOF’s portfolio is made up of unquoted investments as well as quoted shares. Consequently, even if
the VN Index was representative of all quoted companies in Vietnam, VOF’s performance would still
differ by virtue of the unquoted elements whose performance would not correlate with the VN Index.
As a result of these two factors, the Board does not generally benchmark the Investment Manager’s
performance against the VN Index.

[mancman1] 26/3/2024 09:30

The only experience I have of tenders is TFG. The result has been underwhelming. Still a massive discount. Much larger than VOF. There may of course be other reasons for that. The favoured route at present seems to be share buybacks. A lot of companies as well as Investment Trusts are doing it, some on a very large scale: BARC, SMT, ITV, RCP, HFEL, HSBA.

[aleman] 26/3/2024 09:08

Interesting defence of NOT introducing a tender mechanism in the results. I do not agree with it. Modest partial tenders have worked well elsewhere. Practice shows that just the threat of offering to buy a few % of shares somewhere near par is enough to dissuade some selling and encourage some buying such that discounts tend to start closing. The upwards momentum then also encourages the same and shares tend to rise. Investors seeing a rising share price then tend NOT to take up the tender and decide to hang on. It might not work everywhere but what harm can there be in offering small partial tender of, say, 5-10%. They are shrinking the investment base with their buy-backs, anyway, and that's not working. That's ok in the short term but can become a problem in the longer run.

On a more positive note for the status quo, a large investor is selling and NAV keeps rising. One would imagine the shares will fly when they finish selling or see the light and change their mind. Which idiotic fund decides to sell out when the underlying investments seem to be picking up strongly? I'd be furious if it was a fund I was invested in.

A better understanding of what is going on might encourage buyers in at this historically very large discount.

The VN index closed up over 1% again - at the day's high.

[dpmcq] 26/3/2024 08:57

So there is the answer on all the selling -
Over the first couple of months of 2024 the discount has come under further pressure as a significant institutional shareholder reduced its exposure to Vietnam following a review of its portfolio

[aleman] 22/3/2024 16:54

Looks to have broken to to me. I suppose it depends how you draw it.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[dpmcq] 22/3/2024 15:45

Larger volume today, also, if there were not sellers in the market then it would not be so easy for VOF to buy back 150000 shares today.
Until the sellers are done this will be held back. Once the balance tips it will hopefully move on at a pace.

[aleman] 22/3/2024 09:34

Since the last stockmarket high two years ago, GDP has grown about 10% or so and it seems to have picked up even more recently. The VN index reached a high of close to 1500, fell back to 1000, and is now just through a resistance point at 1280. Basically, the tailwind of very strong economic news seems to strongly suggest there will be a new assault on the 1500 high, barring any black swans.

Meanwhile, the VOF share price looks like its not read any economic news for 6 months and NAV is at an exceptional discount of 23%+. When will it decide to have a catch-up and return to an average discount of around 15% - or an even smaller discount typical of a bull market? The share price looks to already have probably broken it's downtrend. Maybe it just needs to be a bit clearer and then the discount will revert to something more normal. .

The stockmarket closed up again today, at +0.4%. The £ is down v $ by almost 0.5% and the $ looks to be marginally down versus the VND since the calculation for yesterday's NAV. With the shares at 461p one might guess the discount is closer to 24% with this information. It just feels way too high when the market has risen over 20% in the last 5 months.

[milesy] 22/3/2024 08:21

SP support line appears to go back at least a couple of years if not more, and triangle looks set for a break very soon

[mancman1] 22/3/2024 08:12

You're right. Under the radar.

[spangle93] 22/3/2024 08:11

or under bought :-)

I'm not sure there's relentless selling, just feels like not enough people are buying

[mancman1] 22/3/2024 07:57

NAV now £6.00. This looks way over-sold.

[aleman] 21/3/2024 07:25

VN Index at a new 17-month or so high currently and a few more points before today's close would be a new high covering almost 2 years.

Edit - market closed up strongly again, at the day's high.

[aleman] 19/3/2024 07:31

Tourism from Europe continues to boom in first two months and rises above pre-covid levels:

[aleman] 18/3/2024 12:31

Property prices still rising strongly in parts of Hanoi.



VOF's exposure to property developers was a drag on performance last year but the severe supply shortages appearing in Vietnam could turn into a tailwind this year.

[amt] 15/3/2024 07:13

Discount 24%

[my retirement fund] 14/3/2024 09:17

Generally, the Conservatives then, yes, they have singlehandedly transformed Britain in business terms from a possible investment prospect to a prospect where one must wear kid gloves and weild a bargepole.

[amt] 14/3/2024 07:23

Discount 23%

[johnwig] 13/3/2024 09:47

All we VEIL and VOF holders need is an uplift in the BRITISH stock market. There's nothing much wrong with the Vietnam economic situation or indeed, by now, its stock market performance. I blame Boris... ooh yes and that woman with her mouth always agape, I forget her name.

[aleman] 13/3/2024 08:53

Vietnam stockmarket up nearly 2%, after +0.8% yesterday, and is on the cusp of a 2-year high.

[aleman] 06/3/2024 08:14

Strong 2-month retail sales figures. (2-month allows for Tet holiday timing distortion):