You're welcome.
Wow.
Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) has proposed significant revisions to the national Power Development Plan (PDP8), emphasizing an increased role for solar energy in the country’s electricity mix. The updated plan aims to triple the nation’s power capacity by 2030 and expand it up to seven times by 2050, aligning with both economic growth demands and global carbon neutrality commitments. |
Aleman, thanks for these updates, appreciated. |
VNI hit 1310 before backtesting to 1300 and closing -0.1% at 1303. Chartists would see this as a confirmation of the breakout and so a very positive signal. I don't know if private investors, that dominate Vietnamese markets, take much notice of such things, though. |
 I did not know about this change for next month:
Notably, the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange has introduced a 4.0 index, replacing version 3.1 and effective from March. The move introduces three key changes: higher trading volume and value criteria to enhance liquidity for selected stocks, financial requirements ensuring no negative net profit to improve stock quality, and a 40 per cent cap on sectoral weightings within the VN30 Index to maintain industry balance.
Nguyen The Minh, head of Research and Development for Retail Clients at Yuanta Securities Vietnam, highlighted that the new framework, particularly for the VN30 Index, incorporates enhanced liquidity criteria for both trading volume and value.
“Globally, liquidity is a key factor in index formation and a critical criterion for ETFs. Enhancing liquidity will attract more investor interest in index-based portfolios, making them more appealing to foreign investors.” “Raising liquidity requirements also addresses a common issue in Vietnam’s stock market, where some large-cap stocks have low trading liquidity, causing indices to misrepresent actual market trends.”
“For VN30, the revised criteria improve the portfolio’s overall quality, reducing fundamental risks for less experienced individual investors who rely on index-based investments,” added Minh. |
This year, our Research team forecasts 18-21% core earnings growth for the market, with Banks expected to grow 17%, Consumer expected to grow 22%, and the Materials sector at 21% growth. Importantly, the long-awaited recovery of real estate is beginning to become more evident, and the sector is expected to grow by at least 14%. This potentially wider distribution of earnings growth supports our view that a broad-based economic recovery, driven by stable credit growth, public spending on infrastructure projects, and a clearer legal and approval process for real estate projects, will stimulate consumer demand.
These core sectors are reflected in our top sector allocations in the portfolio, with Banks at 20%, Real Estate at 20% and the Consumer sector (staples and discretionary) accounting for 16% of portfolio weight. We continue to evaluate private and public equity opportuni-ties across these sectors and look forward to updating investors over the coming months as we look to complete several new investments.
They discuss tariff risk as if it has no benefit. While blanket steel tariffs are likely to affect US sales, much steel output could be diverted to the strengthening contruction market at home and/or in near Asia. VAT equalisation based tariffs could actually increase US demand from Vietnam as higher VAT nations see tariff increases whilst Vietnam tariffs increases look likely to be marginal overall due to its overall lower VAT rates.
If 20% core earnings growth were to be repeated in 2026 and 2027, the 2026 market P/E would be around 8.7 and 2027 around 7.3, versus a longer term average of 15-16. I think the main indices could double in the next 18-24 months as 2027 earnings forecasts come more into play, and still be on a close to average rating. If VOF's discount also returned to a more normal level in 18-24 months (25% to 10%), then VOF's share price would rise about 140% to around 1080p. This is how earnings growth would interact with discounted stockmarket and VOF ratings just to get back to normal ratings. I think there is huge potential here over 2 years if the government hits its growth targets, and it seems very keen to do so.
And that's without considering VOF's property and unlisteds bias, which could outperfrom in an upswing, after underperforming in the property recession of the last couple of years. |
I was surprised to see Vietnam up today. The four other markets I follow, to get a feel for the Far East generally, are down. So, at long last, it is back over 1,300. Let's hope domestic investors keep it going. |
Today's 1304.6 close is a 3-year high for the main Vietnam index. Small caps have also hit 3-year highs. Midcaps are lagging a bit but also rising. |
Yes, the rise in Asia is very interesting, highlights a major sentiment shift to me, as I see China Tech and South Africa (huge exposure to Tencent) both going up nicely. Suggests to me that asia has come up with something to compete with the US market, not saying it's DeepSeek, I believe it could be bigger. |
I don't know if this bodes well or not but the HK50 index has broken out to a 3-year high today, up 4.0%. |
20 years of growth at 8-10%?
Vietnam needs to maintain high and sustainable economic growth until 2045 to escape the middle-income trap, following the examples of Japan, South Korea, and China, according to Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh. ...
...In 40 years of economic reforms, Vietnam has maintained an average growth rate of 6.4% annually. This demands a higher growth rate in the upcoming years to achieve the 2045 target. |
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com |
Unlisted/smallcap index closed at its highest for almost 3 years yesterday on strong volume, closing just over 100, which should create some excitement. I'll see if I can find any significant reporting.
Edit - can't find anything
VNI had its highest weekly close for almost 3 years, which looks like a breakout on longer term charts, however the daily high close of last July of 1301.5 still remains to be beaten, with today's close at 1296.8. There was net foreign buying this week, albeit modest.
VOF's NAV has gone nowhere recently during this 6 week charge in Vietnam indices since it seems to have been significantly encouraged by some short-term Dong weakness. |
1293 is the highest close in VNI for over 7 months. A 3-year rising support is trying to break through a 12-month horizontal resistance on rising volume, with the small cap index doing similar. |
Signs at last that the Vietnam stock market has hit an uptrend. Let's hope it doesn't dissapoint this time. |
Taking into account the movements in the market and the currency (not an exact correlation), the discount is currently 24.5%. VEIL is the same.
FYI
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We are excited to make this Strategy available through our newest ETF, the GMO Beyond China ETF (BCHI), which launched today and is now trading on the NY Stock Exchange.
Note that Vietnam is the most attractive country to invest in. |
VNI is having yet another go at testing resistance after rising again today. The VNI chart itself has rising lows that suggest a base to advance from. It's failed plenty of times before but there is a difference this time. Midcaps are rising modestly and small caps are flying (+8% in 3 weeks) , after previously lending little support. The 2024 trading updates and result season looks like it might be giving the market that extra strength in depth it needs to finally break out. It's not quite there yet, though, even if it is the highest close for 4 months on the VNI. Watch this space. |
I often wish they'd specify the year to make it explicitly clear. My understanding is 2024 is about 13 and 2025 something slightly over 10. (And 2026 would be around 9 or possibly a touch under on current growth forecasts.) Some articles published say 8-10 months ago might say 14 (for 2023) but that would be when the market was slightly lower, so we might say that was 15 now. If they said which Calendar year it is, it would be so much clearer when searching back. |
Thanks for pe graph Aleman. If the ratio falls to about 10 I might start to believe the numbers.
But at 15 it's similar to where we were in the last few years despite a flat market and supposedly big growth in Company Profits. |
amt - our own directors said the market's forward P/E was 10.3 in the last update. I think the 13-14 levels seen in some articles might be trailing P/Es of older articles (and possibly before the stronger earnings recoveries seen in later 2024 and upgraded forecasts for 2025 which have brought the forward P/E down a bit).
This article shows a graphed historic P/E averaging around 15-16 for 2014 to 2023 for the top 30 stocks which make up the bulk of the market.
So a historic P/E of 10.3 a year from now suggests a reversion to the mean could bring 50% upside to stockmarket rating at over a period of time. |
US exports are high - about 27% of Vietnam's $420bn - but other destinations are growing rapidly while US is not. I think this rapid growth to elsewhere makes US tariff threats less of an issue. Strong demand in the rest of Asia would make it easier to switch destinations and Vietnam is cheap enough that a 10% general tariff would probably make little difference. A bigger tariff might reduce demand but that would cause inflation problems for the US and/or disruption finding alternatives. Screwing the US economy would defeat Trumps objectives, surely? Under threat at the moment seem to be Steel and Aluminium which amount to about 1.5%, or 3% for broader metal products. I think Vietnam is about 3.5% of total US imports. US exports to Vietnam are very low - about 0.2% - so there is a large deficit to attack. There are political considerations, though. US (business) is on good terms with Vietnam's communist government and would not want to alienate a country with coast along the militarily sensitive South China Sea. We're talking about Trump, though, so who knows? |
Are there any available statistics on Vietnamese balance of trade with other countries?
Specifically what % of trade is with the US compared to others ? |
Thanks for info
Reports from VNDirect Securities Corporation showed that the combined net profits of these companies increased by 27.8 per cent year-on-year and by 13.4 per cent from the previous quarter.
However why is it that with the stock market flat for the last 4 years the overall pe ratio has not fallen significantly or not much.
I read about these huge increases in net profits every year and yet the average pe seems to about 13.
So should be about 9 next year but doesn't seem to happen in practice. Makes me very suspicious of the statistics being thrown around. |
We have no idea about lots of things.
Profits of listed companies in Việt Nam experienced robust growth in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth. As of February 7, 1,072 listed companies on the stock exchanges have disclosed their Q4 2024 business results. Reports from VNDirect Securities Corporation showed that the combined net profits of these companies increased by 27.8 per cent year-on-year and by 13.4 per cent from the previous quarter. |
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