Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 09/7/2024 10:33

7th consecutive daily rise for the main index and eyeing a new 27-month high.

[aleman] 08/7/2024 17:02

Can it continue? Discount to NAV still 19.9% whereas it tends to shrink to 5-10% in a bull market - so possibly, yes. A 10% discount would put us just over 550p and at a new high.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[aleman] 08/7/2024 16:53

Vietnam National Railway passenger numbers +21% in H1.

[aleman] 01/7/2024 14:22

VAT cut to 8% from 10% for the next 6 months and a host of administrative taxes cut to encourage certain sectors, including securities/stockbroking:



The economy is already growing at 6.9% and some businesses are starting to report labour shortages. Does the economy need further stimulation? The markets welcomed the news, with the main stock index up 0.74% today.

[aleman] 01/7/2024 11:48

From May's report (which seems late, presumably due to the sad death of Andy Ho from a stroke.) :

Nevertheless, Vietnam’s stock market remains attractively valued for investors confident in its long-term growth potential. Current market valuations are appealing, with the forward P/E ratio of 11.5x for 2024, which is about 20% lower than regional peers and one-standard deviation below the market’s historical average. Based on our in-house Research team’s analysis, the market’s earnings growth for 2024 and 2025 is expected to rebound from an earnings contraction in 2023 to 15-20% average growth annually for the next two years. Given the market’s attractive valuation and strong earnings growth outlook, it is trading at a PEG (price/earnings-to-growth) ratio of less than 1x, which indicates the market’s attractive value.

[aleman] 01/7/2024 10:56

As said earlier. Seems to be going gangbusters:

The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing
Managers' Index™ (PMI®) rose sharply to 54.7 in June
from 50.3 in May.

In particular, new orders rose to an extent only exceeded
during the opening month of data collection for the survey in
March 2011

[spangle93] 30/6/2024 10:29

I think this was the one to which you refer, in their latest magazine

[shaker45] 29/6/2024 20:04

Baillie Gifford visited Vietnam and wrote a long and glowing report on why they rate Vietnam as the country of choice for investors in s e Asia. It's well worth reading and encourages me to add to my already substantial investments there-which have proved to be very profitable.

[aleman] 29/6/2024 10:53

After GDP growth was revised up from 5.66% to 5.84% in Q1, Vietnam comfortably beat forecasts with 6.93% in Q2, the highest quarterly growth since the Covid rebound of Q3/2022.



The stockmarket now trades on a below average historical forward rating with latest quarterly GDP above the average for the last decade. Earnings forecasts will probably be lifted slightly with this comfortable GDP beat. All sorts of other economic indicators suggest the economy is now going gangbusters, helped by much improved momentum in the property sector which was behind the economic weakness of H1 last year.

[amt] 28/6/2024 11:47

Another big fall in the market today.
All is not as it seems on the surface.
Maybe Putins visit reminded us that Vietnam is governed by a ruthless Dictatorship who have no qualms about cosying up to the likes of Putin.
Foreign investors selling for 17 days in a row.
Fortunately I only have a relatively small investment here.

[aleman] 27/6/2024 12:19

Power consumption to rise 15% in 2024.



GDP growth to rise from 5.05% to 6.0% - IMF.

[amt] 24/6/2024 11:19

Big fall in the market today. Foreigners continuing to sell.

[aleman] 21/6/2024 07:16

NAV 625p so 20% discount, even after recent rises. The market is up again nearing the close today,(looks like previous resistance has backtested and held?), so discount still looking just over 20% as the shares (continue to ?) rise through 500p.

[amt] 21/6/2024 04:39

Clearly foreign investors are uneasy with the situation and continue to sell.
Shaker45 I only have a small holding now having sold out the majority of my shares in VOF and VEIL earlier this year due to the corruption scandals. I am afraid if Trump gets elected there will be no choice but to try and work with him in the hope that the most powerful country in the World will come to its senses in 4 years time at the next election.
I am inclined to dump the rest of my Vietnam holdings on ethical aswell as financial reasons now.
Donald you may be content to turn a blind eye and ignore the threat to the Western Democracies from Putin but I think that's a big mistake.

[donald pond] 20/6/2024 21:50

I've got no problem with the Vietnamese concept of bamboo democracy where you try to maintain positive relations with everyone. They have sent aid to Ukraine but the country has been close to Russia since the Soviet helped in their war effort. They are acting in their own interests and want to be a partner to all and a servant to none. That seems a very sensible approach to me.

[shaker45] 20/6/2024 21:24

Really that is nonsense. Usa Courts are still considering Trumps claim to dictator like powers to be beyond prosecution for even assassination and certainly for Jan 6 insurrection.
if you think a Putin fleeting visit to Vietnam, makes it uninvestabke, then divest. Try Switzerland with the purest form of democracy: a coalition and quarterly referenda on major issues
But to hold up countries run by liars like Trump and Bojo as models of democracy?? Get real.

[amt] 20/6/2024 19:01

I can't see India rolling out the red carpet to Putin especially since Modi has lost significant power due to DEMOCRATIC elections. Its a far from perfect World. If we can't bring manufacturing back home then India is the least worse choice.
Shaker45 Its very dangerous to take democracy for granted. Its not perfect but infinitely better than living under Dictatorship.
A further point is that we have to deal with leaders we don't like or agree with from time to time, thinking of Trump in particular. However we know their leaders have limitations on what they can do, Dictators do not have limitations. After 4 or 5 years Democratic leaders are most likely replaced and certainly will be replaced if they follow extreme policies. Unfortunately we are stuck with Putin and his influence in Vietnam and N Korea is alarming.

[shaker45] 20/6/2024 14:04

Amt: are you serious?? You think uk is a democracy? You vote for a party every 5 years based on their manifesto which you know they will fail to deliver?? Come on man. You surely don't imagine that India is a democracy. A communist country entertaining a Putin visit doesn't make it a bad place to invest. Liz truss wasnt elected and neither was Sunak.democracy??!

[amt] 20/6/2024 13:33

Putin is there purely for propaganda purposes and its sickening that Vietnam Dictators are prepared to indulge him. Its reminded me that we need to take non democratic countries with caution and steer clear when it comes to investment.
The Western democracies really need to move manufacturing to democratic countries. I see India is now favoured so perhaps companies will take the current situation on board when deciding where to invest in the future. This visit is a huge mistake for Vietnam.

[aleman] 20/6/2024 12:17

I can't find a figure for Russian investment in Vietnam except that has been described as negligible. Top 3 investing countries are Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong, which accounted for over 40% last year but there has been a big surge in US investment this year after Biden's visit. Apparently Putin is there to possibly help develop Vietnamese off-shore energy resources since its rapid growth is going to rapidly exceed existing energy capabilities.

[31337 c0d3r] 20/6/2024 10:48

Yes, I'm not comfortable investing in Vietnam if they're happy to help supply Putler.

[amt] 20/6/2024 08:53

Putin visiting Vietnam is not going to inspire confidence. Recent months have dented my confidence in Vietnam as a place to invest. A year ago I thought it was a no brainer and couldn't understand the relatively modest valuations. I shall only retain a small holding here and feel queasy about that.